VICTORY AND VIRTUES: A SYRIAN PERSPECTIVE By Ghassan Kadi 29 March 2016

VICTORY AND VIRTUES: A SYRIAN PERSPECTIVE

By Ghassan Kadi
29 March 2016

http://katehon.com/article/victory-and-virtues-syrian-perspective

https://www.geopolitika.ru/en/article/victory-and-virtues-syrian-perspective

VICTORY AND VIRTUES: A SYRIAN PERSPECTIVE

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POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY

ISLAMIC CIVILIZATION

29.03.2016

Ghassan Kadi

Victory is invariably sought, but again, invariably, in different manners and in different layers.  But in the end, “what good will it be for someone to gain the whole world, yet forfeit himself?”

One does not have to be a Christian to understand the above profound teaching. Wisdom reaches out to the hearts and minds of people who have a seed of goodness left within. For as long as the seed is where it needs to be, it will only wait for the right moment to germinate.

To seek victory is an arduous “process” that needs deep and profound soul-searching, prioritizing, and above all, wisdom of knowing what to hone in on as a target.

Seeking victory implies overcoming difficulty. This often implies struggle, and the term struggle has a soft spot in the hearts of many people. Good hearted people like to support those who struggle, they like to back them up, they feel obliged to send them money, support letters, and even little trivial tokens like Facebook “Likes”.  

This is why, when setting forth objectives of any particular struggle in the pursuit of a victory of some sort, it becomes paramount to decide who is trying to surmount what.

A military victory is one of those objectives that people and nations have sought for millennia, and for different reasons; some seeking conquest, others seeking freedom. People and nations have fought and fought in the hope that a military victory would bring the desired outcomes to fruition.

Morality implies that might and right are two different things. Might is right only when empowered by virtue. Might becomes right only when the law of the jungle is not allowed to prevail.

We read about history, but in reality, we should not believe much of what we read. After all, even in this age of satellite TV stations, IT, Internet, and even Skype, we don’t know that we are truly receiving the right and unbiased information. So how can we rely on ancient, very ancient documents that have been written to depict and narrate a story when the counter story does not even exist?    

History has been described by cynics as his-story, and perhaps for the right reasons.

History, however, is an on-going story. In each day and with every sunrise, we create the history of the future. Like today’s dwellers, custodians, and masters, the story that history will tell about us is down to us to create.

To put all of the above within a Syrian perspective, for Syria to win its war it will have to win both; its military war and moral war.

A military win seems near, and the foundations of the moral war will need to be even closer.

This is not in any way an attempt to ask Syria to take on a new burden it cannot carry.  This is about expecting Syria to rise to the occasion and present herself as a nation that supports the emergence of a brave new world that seeks to build a better future for humanity.

The West, with its claims to be the custodian of the “Free World”, has built an Empire that was based on false pretenses. Now let us not get into this please. If anyone believes in the fallacy of Western Democracy as the be all and end all, then they will really need to re-examine this belief vis-à-vis the achievements accomplished, if any.

Syria may not be able to change the world, though many staunch nationalists would like to believe that she can, but she can offer a model; but only if there are enough Syrians and those in the Syrian leadership who will support this initiative.

With failures of the West and at many levels, fractures in the EU, short-sighted refugee intake policies, and the ensuing rise of terrorism in the EU, the end of the mono-polar “New World Order” has already been given impetus, and a new emerging multi-polar world has heralded its coming to fruition, in Syria of all places.

Syria is neither big enough nor strong enough to change the course of history, but aided by her allies and supporters, she can and should forge her place in taking a lead role in history-changing events.

Simplistically seen, some supporters of Syria may regard this pivotal role as something that Syria stumbled upon by virtue of luck. In reality, it comes charged and loaded with enormous responsibilities: moral, humane, political, historical, and beyond.

In her fight against Daesh, Syria is now in a position that puts on her an onus to lead the world away from radicalism in all of its forms. Syria has the onus to show the rest of the world that the fight against Daesh is not just one that needs to be fought and won militarily, but most importantly, rationally.

Syria was not a perfect place before March 2011, and it is not expected to become perfect after the war ends. But she is now in the perfect place to try hard to make as many amends of weaknesses and mistakes of the past.

This onus that Syria has to accept to face has congruence with that of Russia. Russia had to re-invent herself; not so much domestically, not at all in any manner other than liberating the Russian soul in a manner that allows her to express herself. Internationally however, Russia had to bring in both; hardware and diplomacy, working hand in hand, to re-assert her stature in the global arena.

Wars are terrible and tragic events, but they offer “opportunities” for change. In Syria, Pandora’s box is already open, and this offers a chance to address pending issues and correct the mistakes of the past. Among other things, Syria has a golden opportunity here to resolve the Kurdish question once and for all.  

The so-called “Free World” has created a moral dilemma for any attempt to stand against it. It created a narrative that was, and continues to be, widely accepted and taken for a fact.

With the changes in world polarity, there is now an emerging onus on the rising powers of the word to prove their worth. They will need to be in a position to offer the world and humanity an alternative that is viable and morally sound.

These are very testing times, more testing than ever. For Syria the moral victory is perhaps the one that is paramount, or at least becoming more important as the military side of the equation is tipping more steadily in favor of Syria’s secular-legal government.

When the allies won their war against Hitler and Imperial Japan, they crowned their “victory” in Europe with genocides like the Dresden genocide, and in the Pacific with Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The allies had won the military war, but lost the moral war, and they have continued to do this ever since, all the way from Korea, Vietnam…and all the way to Iraq and Libya with tens of nations in between.

Syria cannot reverse the acts of the US and its allies, not militarily, but she can set a moral precedent. As a matter of fact, Syria has an obligation to do so.

Victory, true victory cannot and should not be kept at arm’s length from virtues. If virtues, all sorts of virtues, not morality alone, are taken out of the equation, then any “victory” achieved will only be short-lived and one that will lead to other problems, new problems, and invariably bigger problems.

The duty of taking the righteous path is an on-going challenge that faces not only nations, but also individuals every day of the week. Syria is not alone in this regard. What is perhaps “unique” about Syria at this stage in history is the fact that once Syria rises victorious militarily, she will need to provide an antithesis that revokes Daesh in all of its forms and contexts.

This same moral challenge is one that does not only test Syria, but also all other nations that are not happy with the Anglo-EU-Empire. The big obligation therefore is not only on Syria, but also rather on global leaderships, and specifically those of the BRICS nations. If they want to lead the world into a new era, if they are truly intent on creating a better future for humanity, then the BRICS nations will need to provide a preamble, a moral doctrine and leadership with virtues to replace the void that the current morally-debauched West has plunged the world into as it leader.

Victory cannot come without virtues at its core. Take away the virtues, and victory, any victory, gets reduced to winning the world and losing oneself.          

 

¿QUIÉNES SON LOS VERDADEROS MUSULMANES? By Ghassan Kadi 3 March 2016

¿QUIÉNES SON LOS VERDADEROS MUSULMANES?

By Ghassan Kadi
3 March 2016

http://katehon.com/es/article/quienes-son-los-verdaderos-musulmanes

CONSERVADURISMO VS LIBERALISMO, Y LA IZQUIERDA FANÁTICA “NEW-AGE” By Ghassan Kadi 9 March 2016

CONSERVADURISMO VS LIBERALISMO, Y LA IZQUIERDA FANÁTICA “NEW-AGE”

Ghassan Kadi
9 March 2016


http://katehon.com/es/article/conservadurismo-vs-liberalismo-y-la-izquierda-fanatica-new-age

SYRIAN-TURKISH BORDER SECURITY: CHECK POINT TAURUS By Ghassan Kadi 28 March 2016

Syrian-Turkish Border Security: Check Point Taurus

By Ghassan Kadi
28 March 2016


http://thesaker.is/syrian-turkish-border-security-check-point-taurus/

Syrian-Turkish Border Security: Check Point Taurus

19916 ViewsMarch 28, 2016 28 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

My previous article titled “Kurdish Autonomy; Partition Or Master Plan” was met with some controversy. Some readers seemed to have missed a very basic point it raised. Others misunderstood the main issue and tried to put words into my mouth saying that the article condoned partition and argued that Syrian Kurds should not be given independence and a separate state, even though the article clearly indicated that such was not its objective. This article herein is intended to shed more light on the subject and emphasize an issue that is paramount for long-term Syrian security.

With the return of Tadmor (Palmyra) to the custody of the Syrian Army, the military victory of secular Syria is drawing nearer. Now, this was, still is, a war that was waged on Syria by many nations and facilitated by neighbouring countries that opened their borders to militants and their munitions to cross over, unopposed, carrying everything from small hand-carried machines guns all the way to heavy artillery and even tanks.

Little has been said about the actual route that those supplies took; and specifically, the routes they took from Turkey into Syria. And unless one takes the history of this region into account, the significance of this subject cannot be seen and appreciated.

Like some nations, Syria has natural geographical boundaries. The Syrian Social National Party (SSNP) was founded by Antoun Saade in 1932. The party calls for the reunification of “Greater Syria” (aka Natural Syria and the Fertile Crescent). This article is neither meant to promote the doctrine of that particular party nor is it meant to reject it. This is said because the doctrine of the said party comes in a whole “package” that includes issues other than the natural barriers on Greater Syria, and there is no need to dwell into those issues here and now. On the issue of Greater Syria alone however, what Antoun Saade suggested as the boundaries makes a lot of common sense, especially with respect to the northern borders.

The reason as to why the northern borders are specifically of significance is because Turkey has not been a good and friendly neighbour of Syria. This in fact is a gross understatement as Turkey has been bullish and brutal to an extreme, and for a very long time.

If neighbouring states and nations have good relationships with each other and do not harbour any hostilities towards each other, then all differences and disputes, including border disputes, can either be negotiated or dropped as being of no significance when they do not pose any threat and danger. But such is not the case when it comes to the Syrian-Turkish border line.

Historically, the first real superpower was the Assyrian Empire. The Assyrians were very powerful, and they breached all natural barriers and extended their empire over to Egypt and to most of Anatolia. The borderline between Turkey and Syria did not become a sticking issue till the Muslim conquest of the Byzantines. Faced with the outcome of several military defeats, Emperor Heraclius ordered his troops to retreat and evacuate the areas that are to the south of the Taurus Mountains and east of Tarsus; which is at the western end of the mountain chain as it bends south towards the Mediterranean.

What Heraclius made was a very painful decision, but one that is pragmatic and strategic. He left Syria and secured the southern border of what was left of his empire by a mighty natural barrier; The Taurus Mountains.

At the height of the Muslim Empire (ie the Umayyad and Abbasid eras), the Taurus Mountains were breached especially in its eastern regions, where gaps are more abundant and the Muslim Empire advanced to as far as Armenia. But as the Abbasid rule fell apart and the Muslim Empire was subdivided, the Taurus Mountains once again resumed their natural “role” as the borderline between Syria and Turkey. This is seen best during the period of the Hamadani Principality as per map No 1.

Those borders remained unbreached until a counterattack came from the north this time. That was when the Ottomans invaded and captured Syria in 1516 AD. Syrian regions south of the Taurus Mountains fell under Turkish rule back then, and they remain as such ever since.

During the Ottoman rule, the question of borders between Syria and Turkey was nonexistent as Syria recoiled under the iron fist rule of Istanbul. The question did not rise again till after the end of World War I and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.

As empires often do, they try not to sever relationships with each other when they can. It is only in rare cases that they totally destroy each other. The example of Rome destroying Carthage remains thus far unique. The Romans killed every Carthaginian man, woman and child. Even World War II, with all of its atrocities, did not thankfully reach such proportions.

With the rise of Ataturk to power, colonial France wanted to turn a new leaf with the new Turkey, at the expense of Syria. The annexation of the Syrian Cilicia and Iskenderun regions to Turkey is often spoken of, but the “gift” of land south of the Taurus Mountains to Turkey is hardly ever mentioned.

With Syria in a constant state of war with Israel, the “liberation of Palestine” high on its early agenda as a new independent post WWII state, the ensuing need for taking back the Golan Heights from Israel climbed its way up the priority ladder to take the lead role.

How many wars Syria should fight and can fight? The region south of Taurus became so ignored and even almost forgotten; but shouldn’t be as such, not anymore.

If one takes a drive from Adana (a Syrian city under Turkish occupation) north towards say Ankara, he/she will have to cross the mighty Taurus Mountain chain. This is a highly inaccessible chain that can only be crossed at certain gates in between the mountain peaks. The Cilician Gates (Gulek Bogazi in Turkish) is the one that has to be crossed taking this particular route.

Troops and armaments that have crossed Turkey into Syria must have used that route. Got the picture?

This harangue is not meant to be a lesson in history or geography. It is about highlighting a basic issue that is essential for the security of Syria.

If one looks at Map 2 with a fresh look, it becomes clear that Syria’s natural defense line had been in Turkey’s hands for a whole century. It did not cause a threat until Erdogan decided to use this strategic advantage to flood Syria with Jihadists.

Had the line joining the mountain peaks been the political border between Syria and Turkey, it would have been virtually impossible for Turkey to send those troops into Syria. And this is the strategic weakness that Syria has, the one that has been and continues to be overlooked despite all of what has happened.

Had Syria had positions and watch towers on mountain tops, breaching its borders would have been close to impossible. With this advantage on Turkey’s side, troops were able to take their time crossing the gauntlet and move into the flat terrain where the current political borders are.

Another close fresh look at Map 2 reveals something else if it hasn’t been picked up in the first look. The cities of Gaziantep and even Diyarbakir are within geographical and historical Syria. Got the picture?

This is heartland Kurdish territory. This is where virtual real battles are currently raging between the Kurds and the Turkish Army. Hundreds of Kurds have been slaughtered under the watchful eyes of the international community with very little condemnation.

These Kurds are not Turkish Kurds, they are Syrian Kurds. They live and have lived within Greater Syria for centuries. There is also a huge number of non-Kurdish Syrians who live in that region.

The proposed unilateral declaration of Kurdish Federation is nothing but a bit of a joke. It does not represent the views of all Kurds, and not even those of a reasonable minority. It did however receive a lot of hoo-ha perhaps more due to its nature rather actual ability to see the light.

Now here is the deal. Syria can pretend that there is no such thing as a Kurdish question and can pretend that her current northern borders with Turkey do not warrant any concern. On the other hand, she can see in wartime an opportunity to mop up as Pandora’s Box is already open.

With or without any such proposal for federation, Syria should take a leading role and try to capitalize on the situation north of its borders. The time has never been more opportune for Syria to act on this front.

With Russia on her side, with an impending military victory and with turmoil within Turkey, Syria has a golden opportunity to win the hearts and minds of Syrian Kurds living south of Taurus.

As mentioned in the previous article, if those Kurds see their cousins enjoying privileges they don’t have, if they see themselves persecuted and bombed by Erdogan’s troops whilst their cousins are living in peace, prosperity and have the respect they have earned and deserve, they will naturally gravitate towards it.

In a recent interview on Sputnik I drew parallels with Ukraine. Who would have thought that the events of Maidan would lead to the reunification of Crimea with Russian motherland? And we haven’t seen the end of this one yet have we?

Adversity can be turned into opportunity. Crimea was reunified with Russia without a war and without bloodshed.

The bottom line here is that the Kurdish issue needs to be resolved, and there are perhaps only four ways to deal with it:

1. Ignore it and hope that it will go away, but it won’t.

2. Deal with Kurds the Erdogan way, which is inhumane and totally unacceptable to put it very mildly.

3. Succumb to present and future pressure and eventually allow for federation under dangerous terms that may lead into partition, or

4. See the silver lining and try to turn the situation against Turkey and get Kurds and other non-Kurd Syrians living south of the Taurus Mountains to seek reunification with mother Syria.

This is not a call for a new war. Given Turkey’s history of aggression and thuggery, and given that it may act aggressively again, Syria has all the right to seek the prevention of new wars and secure its northern borders within her geographical barriers and hold the key for checkpoint Taurus.

 

Map No 1 The Hamadani Principality of the Tenth Century AD.

Map 2 Showing the Taurus Mountains against the existing Syrian-Turkish borderline

 

THE KURDISH AUTONOMY; PARTITION OR MASTER PLAN. By Ghassan Kadi 20 March 2016

THE KURDISH AUTONOMY; PARTITION OR MASTER PLAN.
By Ghassan Kadi
20 March 2016

http://thesaker.is/kurdish-autonomy-partition-or-master-plan/

Kurdish Autonomy – partition or master plan

23169 ViewsMarch 21, 2016 27 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

No one can claim to understand what goes on within the Kurdish mind except the Kurds themselves, perhaps not all the Kurds do either.

It is rather amazing that non-Kurds expect Kurds to have one voice, one aspiration, one political orientation, and as if all other nations are united in a manner that is manifested in a single voice. How interesting! Is there a single nation on earth that fits such bill?

Kurds are then often begrudgingly and unfairly referred to as a group of people who are not united. Didn’t George W. Bush win his first presidential election by a margin of a few hundred votes nationwide? Why is it then that the world expects unanimous Kurdish decision-making when the rules of democracy stipulate that 50.01% represents a democratic majority?

The world should leave Kurds alone and respect that they are entitled to have differences, and at the same time appreciate the fact that they have been struggling for statehood and self-determination for a long time.

What we ought to remember is that Kurds have been around for thousands of years, and long before the Levant adopted the Arabic language as its formal language and thus became a part of the Arab World.

All ancient indigenous Levantine cultures must have felt alienated when pan-Arabism was at its peak during the Nasser/Baath era and thereabout. After all, Assyrians, Aramaics, Chaldeans …. and Kurds are not Arabs. However, nationality and ethnicity are two different things, and the afore-mentioned ethnicities, as well as others from the region, are all Syrians.

What is exacerbating the Kurdish “problem” in particular is the huge number of Kurds if compared to other ethnicities, their presence in a few states (Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran), the lack of ideologies that embrace them and provide them with security, and last but not least, discrimination and persecution. It is little wonder therefore to find them seeking statehood and security.

Any recognition of Kurds is what Turkey fears, and as a result, instead of regarding the Kurds of Turkey as equal citizens to other ethnicities, Turkey regards them as Trojan horses. The way towards nationhood has to be inclusive, but Turkey’s way has historically been discriminatory, divisive and based on maintaining the status quo of Turkman superiority. On the other hand, the Syrian way has matured and ripened during the war, and it is a way that has been baptized by sacrificial blood, sweat and tears, and the Kurds have earned their place with the highest of distinction. The question as to whether the Kurds have realized which of the two nations will embrace them, Syria or Turkey, remains to be answered. All indications however are that they are going back to their Syrian roots.

We have to be honest and fair and say that Kurds have been marginalized, even in Syria. As a matter of fact, some Syrian Kurds do not even have identity cards. There are many stories about how this happened, but the most plausible one is that apparently some Kurds did not register themselves during the 1932 census. They were fearing that the census had a hidden agenda and that they will get targeted. As a result, they missed out on becoming Syrian citizens, and their children and their children suffered the consequences.

The Syrian government will have to find a way to fix this grave anomaly and give Kurds the due respect they deserve.

Erdogan wanted to displace Syrian Kurds and have them replaced by Syrian Sunnis loyal to him. His whole objective of creating the safety zone within the 80 km northern strip of Syria was about this. That safety zone would have also separated Syrian Kurds from Turkish Kurds and bolstered his dominance over his Kurdish compatriots. But this was not happen.

In a twist of fate, what Erdogan seems to be receiving at the end of this is quite the opposite.

There has been a lot of talk and innuendo about federation and the newly-announced Kurdish autonomy within Syria. Under normal conditions, autonomy within a state and federation spell danger. They are not at all far away from partition. In this instance however, there could be more than meets the eye at the first glance.

We must pause here for a minute and remember that Putin is intent on stamping out Islamist fundamentalism where it grows and festers. The downing of the Su-24 at the hands of Turkey added more to Putin’s resolve, and now he is more determined to put an end to the Erdogan dream; which is in reality nothing more than Jihadism with the obsession of revamping the old Ottoman Sultanate.

There are more ways than one in which Kurds can play a huge role in all of this, and if the cards are played correctly and intelligently, a Kurdish autonomous zone in Syria can herald the beginning of a whole new era and an end to the infamous Sykes-Picot accord on a frontier that was last on the agenda.

All territory south of the Taurus Mountains is in reality Syrian. The mountain chain is the geographical barrier that separated the two nations for centuries, and it wasn’t till after the fall of the Ottoman Empire that some regions south of the mountain were considered as part of Turkey. Turkey therefore did not only get away with snatching Cilicia and Iskenderun from Syria, but also the entire region south of the Taurus Mountains.

A couple of years ago or so, President Assad declared that the truce in the Golan has expired and that the door for resistance is now open. He added that at a time of her own choosing, Syria is going to launch the battle of liberation of occupied territories. Did he also include an intention to liberate Cilicia, Iskenderun and Northern Syria (ie south of the Taurus Mountains)? He possibly did.

A conventional war will be very hard to plan for and execute for Syria to reclaim its territory lost to Turkey. However, a Kurdish autonomous zone can, and hopefully with much less bloodshed and human suffering. But how?

Kurds are now on the rise, and the euphoria of winning their fight against Daesh has been echoed by the global accolade they are receiving from an array of parties; including the traditional rivals USA and Russia.

In his blatant anti-Kurdish demeanor, Erdogan is pouring oil on the fire, but only to his detriment.

When Kurds living in Turkey suffer more brutality and genocidal attacks perpetrated on them by the Turkish military eventually look over the fence and see their brothers and sisters in Syria living in peace, prosperity and dignity, they will want to seek similar privileges. The harsher Erdogan deals with them, the more they will want to break away from Turkey.

The southern part of Turkey, mainly south of the Taurus Mountains is home to an estimated 30 million Kurds and Alawites (including Alawi Kurds) and Syrian Arabs. Their prospects in that region look very grim indeed. If Erdogan wises up and genuinely returns to his “Zero Problems” policies, he may be able to resolve the problem peacefully. Sadly, this does not seem to be his intention. He is digging his heels in and bracing for more conflict.

Erdogan is paving the way towards a civil war in Turkey. As a result, Erdogan may lose his popularity and Turkey may end up with a moderate government and return to its rather passive post-Ottoman stance. However, given the global sympathy Kurds have, Turkey, with or without Erdogan, will find it very hard to take full advantage of its military superiority over the Kurds.

So whether a huge or limited civil war erupts in Turkey, or none whatsoever, if the Kurds see in the Syrian Kurdish autonomy experiment a model for them to follow or join, eventually, no one can stop them; not even Turkey.

There are many “ifs” and “buts” here, many “knowns” and more “unknowns”. We can only speculate. Having said that, if we put a certain series of” ifs” together, we may be able to see the proposed federation/autonomy from a very positive perspective.

If the proposed Kurdish Syrian area of autonomy is going to remain under the roof of Damascus, and if the trilateral cooperation on the battlefield between Russia, the Syrian Army and the Kurds has now evolved into a trilateral political and strategic alliance; one that has a long-term vision and understanding, and if the parties have employed their combined knowledge of the region, its people and governments in order to work out a master plan, we could then well and truly be looking at a scenario that is going to herald the start of a chain reaction that will slowly but surely eat away at Turkey’s regional hegemony on occupied land and suppression of its own citizens.

Not only Kurds are underprivileged in Turkey, as so are the Alawites (as mentioned above) and other minority groups. Syrians in the Adana region (which is geographically and historically part of Syria) are derogatively referred to by Turks as “Fallahin” (ie peasants). Such is the state of the Ottoman Empire that Erdogan wants to rebuild, more so ironically, one that many Arab Sunnis (who are not necessarily Jihadis) are praying for it to happen. The people of southern today’s Turkey therefore will feel easily inclined to rise against the rule of Ankara. After all, they have been under Turkish rule since 1516.

If indeed there is a trilateral Russian/Syrian/Kurdish plan to this effect, and I find it to be highly likely, then the coalition would have successfully managed to turn the table around Erdogan in a manner that gives him a taste of his own medicine, and in the most powerful and effective manner possible. After all, Erdogan’s plan to partition Syria and impose his own sphere of influence on it relied on foreign funds, foreign fighters and the risk of having them turn against him. It further relied on NATO support (which it never got), and last but least, it relied on Erdogan’s popularity. With his dwindling popularity and terror blasts hitting at the heart of Ankara, all that Erdogan has ever relied on has slipped through his fingers.

On the other hand, the force that the trilateral Russian/Syrian/Kurdish coalition is banking on is local, determined, highly trained and knows the territory like no other. It does not need to be lubricated by cash or mobilized with captagon. It does not require much logistic back up. Its soldiers can bunker up and live on water and stale bread; and there are millions of them already on the ground.

When we take into account all of the possibilities, we cannot turn a blind eye to the pro-Israeli Kurds (such as the Barazanis of Iraq). Israel has always supported those Kurds, but for different reasons of course. Israel’s interest in these Kurds has always been aimed at weakening Iraq and seeking Kurdish oil.

It will be very difficult to predict how the Syrian Kurdish entity will deal with the Barazani Kurds. If the former eventually proves to be successful and manages to regain Kurdish/Syrian regions presently held by Turkey, will it then be able to marginalize the pro-Israeli Iraqi Kurdish enclave of Barazani? No one knows. We will have to wait to see.

Hopefully, Turkey will not descend into a civil war. All wars are awful, and civil wars are the worst. It is hoped that Erdogan will either see the light or that Turkish people will wake up and vote him out. Either way, the Syrian Kurdish autonomy is going to create new dynamics and generate changes. But those changes do not at all necessarily have to be negative as many fear. The odds suggest otherwise, and no one in his/her right mind can expect any member of the trilateral Russian/Syrian/Kurdish coalition to dump the others at the eve of victory, at the time when they should be celebrating their combined victory. After all, what do the Kurds expect to gain if they go against the grain of the coalition and make their declaration of statehood before the Geneva talks? Such move, if in fact is an act of mutiny as some observers are reading, would be tantamount to nothing short of political suicide.

My reading does not see this. My reading see a potential for a huge Russian-sponsored deal that will bring dignity to the Kurds, resolve their problem, and restore Syrian sovereignty. I cannot be certain that is this the plan, but indications show it is highly likely.

RUSSIA'S SYRIAN INITIATIVE: OVER BUT NOT By Ghassan Kadi 19 March 2016

Ghassan Writes: "My latest article on The Saker. This was written a few days ago, just the day after President Putin declared that some Russian troops and hardware were to withdraw from Syria. It is therefore not very up to date in its content.

It will soon be followed by another article that expresses my reading of the proposed Kurdish autonomy in Syria."

http://thesaker.is/russias-syrian-initiative-over-but-not-out/

Russia’s Syrian initiative: over but not out

11596 ViewsMarch 19, 2016 18 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

The enemies of Syria have been gleefully watching Syria getting dismembered, its people killed and its infrastructure destroyed for five long years.

Every time an icon was destroyed, they leaped with joy. Every time they conjured up a plot to widen the scope of the war and involve NATO, they impatiently sat in front of their televisions waiting and bracing to hear that the presidential palace has suffered a direct hit. This was not to happen, and the resilience of Syrians, their resolve and the manner in which they honed on President Assad was and continues to be something that enemies of Syria were neither prepared for nor ready to accept.

And now, as Syria is emerging triumphant, and as Saudi Arabia finds itself facing huge difficulties, domestically, regionally and internationally, and as the stupid and short-sighted policies of Erdogan have moved terrorism into the heart of Turkey, and as the EU is reaping the fruit of the evil seed it planted in Syria, the enemies of Syria are desperately trying to find a reason to put a smile on their faces.

It is not at all surprising then to see them celebrate President Putin’s decision to pull troops out of Syria.

Putin’s decision came as a surprise to all of us. Some of us were quicker than others in analysing it properly. And whilst the haters of Syria and Russia, as well as those who personally hate presidents Putin and Assad were quick to make the event look like a turnaround in the relationships between Syrian and Russia, even a failure, the decision was not as surprising as first seen.

I asked a number of friends, the opinions and views of whom I highly respect, the following question:

“What’s your take on the Russian withdrawal? I am fully aware it could be a tactical action, one that is reversible etc etc.. What I’m worried about is a possible conflict between Moscow and Damascus. Are you aware of any such thing?”

The “conversations” were private, and my friends had no idea that I asked that same questions to others, so the responses were not only independent, but also done spontaneously without any editing or need for holding back any concerns.

Here is the first response in its entirety:

“Hi Ghassan, I am more worried about a rift between Lavrov and Putin than between Putin and Assad, however remote that may be. This leads to my definite belief that Russia and Syria have orchestrated this whole process down to a T. No chance or possibility of a disagreement between Syria and Russia. And I can splurge and say that Russia is preparing the political ground for a greater conflict and consequent comeback because they do not have faith in US/Saudi/Turkish reaction to their gesture of goodwill, after clearly demonstrating their incredible firepower”.

This was the second response, also quoted in its entirety:

“Everything is possible, of course.  But I see no signs of conflict.  But, if there was such a conflict, we would not know about it, right? But the key thing is that I don’t see the Syrians being in any position to argue with the Russians and, besides, the Russians would have other means of pressure other than withdrawal. So no, I really don’t see any reason at this point to suspect a rift. Do you?”

Both responses were heart-warming and reassuring indeed, and then, I received a response from a true hero; a Syrian NDF operative. I had in the past relied on this particular friend to give me information of events as they happened on the ground, and at times, before they happened. He gave a very long answer, and I will skim it down to its core. This was his response (without any corrections):

“Don’t worry. Perfect and absolute understanding between Moscow and Damascus. Syrian army rejuvenated and best trained and equipped with Russian and Iranian expertise. Major weapons remain..specially S 400. Decision made between all parties. Readiness remains. Bases remain. Only part leaves. Part stays. Russia delivered ultra.modern equipment. Withdrawal..pragmatic…Diplomatic. .tactical…ellusive..many reasons… it is not a total withdrawal.

No one touches Syria. They can’t… anytime very quickly Russians can and will come back . Russians remain on the ground as usual. There is no conflict. How could there be….this is friendship. ..strategic survival necessity… its pipelines. ..it’s prevention… its defence….IT’S A VITAL FRIENDSHIP BASED ON COMMON VIEWS. .COMMON HEARTS…COMMON CULTURES..COMMON INTERESSTS…COMON EVERYTHING.

Russians keep their word. This is extrem important for the public and institutions…in Russia and worldwide. There is no necessity staying right now. We all saw how fast they can come. Part of russian forcea will stay.

Syrian army trained and supplied by russian army. What conflict ? The cooperarion has never been tighter !!!

From the start itvwas agreed upon a 3 months intervention. It h been prolonged. .. 5..6months… longer than that it would be regarded as occupation..understand. many pragmatic reasonable reasons. NEVER EVER CONFLICT BETWEEN SYRIA AND RUSSIA. Soulmates don’t dissagree.”

One can almost smell the adrenalin in this last response; which I dearly treasure.

As The Saker put it bluntly in his article yesterday, he trusts Putin, and so do I. Putin is not going to cut and run, even if there is indeed some dispute between himself and the Syrian leadership, which is very highly unlikely.

President Putin is not going to blemish his impeccable record of certitude, strength and resolve by walking out and away.

The troglodytes can keep on wearing their ugly toothy grins, but for as long as Russia and Syria uphold their principles and what unites them, their enemies shall not pass.

The September 2015 Russian initiative in its initial form is over, but Russia’s role is not over and out.

FUNDAMENTALISM ON THE RISE; A SUNNI-JEWISH CONVERGENCE By Ghassan Kadi 13 March 2016

http://thesaker.is/fundamentalism-on-the-rise-a-sunni-jewish-convergence/

Fundamentalism on the rise: a Sunni-Jewish Convergence

22896 ViewsMarch 13, 2016 35 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

In an article published in the Lebanese daily Assafir on 12th of March 2016 under the title of “Saudi Arabia paves the way for an Israelis war on Lebanon”, (1) the political editor sarcastically and mockingly made a comment to the effect that after the Arab League declared Hezbollah a terrorist organisation, it may formally ask Israel to engage in a war against it.

As a matter of fact, this is not a far-fetched possibility and more so, is increasingly becoming a geo-political “necessity”.

In December 2013, prominent analyst Sharmine Narwani, predicted that a “Security Arc” was on the rise (2). Taking all other outstanding articles that she has written into account, this one possibly stands out as her masterpiece thus far. I was privileged that I was asked by the author to translate it into Arabic. In that article, Sharmine predicted that the empire and its allies will sooner or later face a rising new alliance to counter their conspiracies in the region. She predicted that Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon (as represented by Hezbollah and allied forces) were going to eventually form a military alliance that will stand against terrorism, jihadi fundamentalism and the American/Israeli roadmap. Clearly, we can see this prediction coming to fruition. What Sharmine perhaps did not foresee was the Russian intervention in the manner and extent that we see today. In hindsight and in fairness, the magnitude of the Russian intervention was highly unforeseeable.

A lot has changed since the term “Security Arc” was coined, and the head of the serpent has already taken a jump and a skip.

Ever since ISIS took over Mosul and self-financed, it became clear to myself and many other analysts that we were seeing a major shift in the course of events. Whilst many others continue to promote the idea that ISIS is totally and entirely an American pawn that answers to American masters, the events on the ground clearly show that there has been at least a partial American–Jihadi divorce akin to the previous Bin Laden–American divorce. This time however, America seems to be wiping its hands clean and walking right out of this quagmire.

In his recent interview with Jeffrey Goldberg (3), President Obama made a scathing attack on his Saudi allies and other “free loaders” who want to drag America into regional wars that it is not at all interested in, in order for them to settle their own scores. Obama went further and bragged his decision not to attack Syria after all the bravado that followed the East Ghouta chemical attack of August 2013 and which was framed onto the Syrian Army. In reading in between the lines Obama is saying it for the first time to his Middle Eastern allies; when it comes to your sectarian vendettas, you’re on your own.

Certainly the issue of Israeli security will always be a soft spot for American foreign policy makers. At this stage however, the security of Israel per se is not an issue and any decisions made around it will be made independently.

As I have been reiterating for quite some time now, the “Anti-Syrian Cocktail” is a group of nations and organisations that were united only by their hatred for Syria and its President. Apart from that they had very diverse interests and goals. Given that America was unable to achieve its objective of toppling President Assad, it has no interest left in that war when it sees that the major players there have their own agendas. Also given that America clearly sees that the warring factions have scores that are centuries old and each party wishing to settle them on his own terms, America is literally walking out on many of its regional allies. The Iran nuclear deal was a part, a huge part, of this new understanding and revelation. It was not surprising then that soon after the Iran nuclear deal, Saudi Arabia pulled its own sleeves and went into Yemen; albeit to get bogged in. Obama must be gleefully saying thank God we didn’t get involved in that one as well.

In all of the above, Turkey was not mentioned.

Even though Turkey is a NATO member it was not allowed to free load and use its NATO-based clout to settle its scores with either the Kurds or what is sees as its Shia rivals.

Where does this leave Saudi Arabia, Turkey and to a lesser extent Qatar and the UAE? Without the direct support of America and NATO, those states that are run by Sunni zealots are going to find themselves out in the cold and hung out to dry. They will be in a desperate need to assert their military and regional geo-political superiority against the “Security Arc”. With America pulling out of the scene, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Turkey will have to, sooner or later, find a way to fill the void and forge a new alliance with a new partner, and there is none that fits the bill other than Israel. Only Israel shares their concerns and fears about the same regional opponent.

Saudi Arabia has been systemically talking about a forthcoming Shiite threat. Its involvement in the “War On Syria” is in essence instigated by this vision, and so is its more recent war against Yemen. For at least a decade now Saudi and Qatari funds have been flooding Sunni power bases and different media with anti-Shiite and anti-Hezbollah propaganda. From a popularity high after the July War of 2006 when Hezbollah banners were flown in major Sunni cities all over the Middle East, something that was seen as a serious threat by the Saudi royals back then, the Saudi royals have been able to brainwash and sway the minds of a significant percentage of the Sunni street.

In unprecedented speed and determination, the Arab nations have finally blacklisted Hezbollah. First, during an Arab Foreign Minister’s meeting in Jeddah in February 2016, followed by Arab Interior Minister’s meeting in Tunis in March 2016 and then last but not least, an Arab League Meeting that has formally declared Hezbollah as a terror organisation.

As mentioned in a previous article, the Palestinian Authority has endorsed the first two decisions, and since then has endorsed the third.

It is highly likely that the PA will finally receive its consolation prize and be given token statehood over a very tiny fraction of Palestine, thereby selling out Palestine, the Palestinian people and the right of return, in part of a bigger deal that will make Saudi Arabia appear to be the liberator of Jerusalem and the leader of the Sunni world in the hope that this will bolster its leadership and guise it with grandeur and might.

The Saudi camp Arabs have finally reached common ground with Israel.

The fundamentalist Sunni mind that Saudi and Gulf money has forged is one that sees Iran and Hezbollah as a bigger regional threat than Israel. The ground is becoming more fertile for a fundamentalist Sunni-Israeli alliance. The strategic “need” is already overwhelming, and the support of the masses is not very far away. Jihadi preachers will not find the task of providing “evidence” that Jews are closer to Sunnis than Shia a hard task to achieve. The fundamentalist Sunni street is quite ready for such a push. The formalisation of this alliance is only a question of time before it is overtly announced and before officials from both sides of the Abrahamic divide exchange visits, gifts, kisses and Ambassadors and before their armies fight together in the same trenches. In reality, however, this alliance is already in existence.

1 http://assafir.com/Article/480900

2 http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/17989

3 http://www.theatlantic.com/personal/archive/2016/03/the-obama-doctrine-the-atlantics-exclusive-report-on-presidents-hardest-foreign-policy-decisions/473151/