https://sputniknews.com/analysis/202002191078352146-turkey-raises-stakes-in-syria-libya-and-puts-relations-with-russia-to-test--analysts/?fbclid=IwAR22FkdiNeypxs-2hYht7mUBLtFEf9nvy00RNW4Y561iQi1nFboSXGBR94Y
Turkey Raises Stakes in Syria, Libya and Puts Relations With Russia to Test – Analysts
In the aftermath of Monday talks, the Turkish leadership complained that Russia-Turkey bilateral discussions are still far from meeting Ankara's demands. At the same time, the Kremlin highlights that the objectives of the Sochi agreement have yet to be reached.
'There's No Moderate Opposition in Idlib Zone'
One of the provisions of the Sochi agreement on Idlib struck by Moscow and Ankara on 17 September 2018 stipulated that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham* and other radical groups would leave the demilitarised zone entirely while the so-called "moderate" rebels would disarm and be allowed to stay in the region, something that has yet to be done.
Commenting on the situation surrounding Idlib on Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed that "the demilitarised zone in the whole Idlib zone perimeter" outlined in the Turco-Russian Sochi agreement "has not been created yet". Besides, Lavrov underscored that terrorists operating within the zone "are not guaranteed safety".
"First of all, there are no 'moderate opposition' fighters in Idlib", says Ghassan Kadi, a Middle Eastern expert, blogger and political analyst of Syrian descent. "That term was introduced to the agreement to appease Erdogan. Nonetheless, Russia and Syria have waited long enough for him to commit to the Astana and Sochi agreements, and they could not wait any longer because left alone, he would never do it".
Christopher Assad, a Canada-based political analyst of Syrian origin, echoes Kadi by criticising the Turks for non-compliance with the agreement struck with Russia and Iran in 2018. According to the analyst, it appears that Ankara's unwillingness to disarm jihadists stems from Turkey's supposed intention to use them as proxies to maintain control in northern Syria.
Tensions grew high two weeks ago when Turkish troops came under fire from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) conducting a counter-terror operation in the Idlib province that remains the last jihadi stronghold in the country. While Syrian government forces are seeking to eradicate jihadi elements operating under the auspices of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham*, the Turks have to date amassed a considerable military force in the region. On 15 February, President Recep Erdogan demanded that the SAA leave the Idlib province accusing Damascus of breaching the ceasefire agreement and threatening military action in case the government forces continue their offensive.
Turkey's Libya Strategy: Oil & Political Interests
The simmering conflict in Idlib is not the only military theatre Turkey is involved in. On 16 January, Erdogan announced that Turkey would be sending troops to Tripoli under a November security agreement with the Government of National Accord (GNA). According to the Guardian, hundreds of troops from the Syrian National Army (SNA), an umbrella of Syrian rebel groups funded by Turkey, have been deployed in Libya starting from December.
Ankara decided to throw its weight behind the GNA. However, Tripoli currently controls about 10 per cent of the country's territory while the larger part is held by forces loyal to Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar.
On 19 February, Erdogan announced while addressing the ruling AK Party gathering, that if the Libyan warring parties fail to strike an agreement, Turkey will support the GNA in taking control of the whole country.
"This gamble of Erdogan has two aspects that have no relation to supporting the Western-backed GNA on political grounds", Kadi presumes. "First of all, he wants to expand Turkish regional role, and secondly he is desperate to get his hands on oil".
According to the analyst, Ankara is seeking to maintain control over offshore oil belonging to Syria and Cyprus, as well as Libyan natural resources. In November 2019, the GNA and Ankara delineated maritime borders on the Eastern Mediterranean laying claims of sovereignty over the areas in the energy-rich parts of the sea.
For his part, Assad opines that "the two-front Turkish policy also indicates the presence of a Turkish exit strategy from the Syrian war".
He suggests that by supporting the GNA and Ennahdha Movement in Tunisia, Ankara is seeking "to empower them and ensure that Egypt's anti-Muslim influence does not fill the void left after the demise of the secular governments in each of the two countries".
"Add to that the potential rewards Turkey may gain in terms of oil and gas concessions and in tightening the noose by flanking Egypt (Israel to the East and Sudan to the South) in the eastern Mediterranean if the policy of empowering political Islam in that part of MENA succeeds", the political analyst observes.
Why Ankara Puts Turco-Russian Ties at Risk
While transiting Syrian troops to Tripoli, Erdogan subjected Moscow to criticism over its alleged military involvement in Libya, something that the Kremlin resolutely denies.
One might ask as to why Ankara risks deteriorating Russo-Turkish relations over Syrian and Libyan standoffs.
"All Turkey wanted was normal economic relations, the S-400 and a gas pipeline, in the meantime they'd have had ample time to finish their project in Syria", Assad says, suggesting that on other fronts Ankara is willing to resume cooperation with Washington which has already made clear that US-Turkish interests in Syria and Libya overlap.
According to Kadi, Erdogan's supposed attempt to play both sides of the fence may go wrong, because "if he now fully and openly turns against Russia and goes back to America's bosom, the Kurdish conflict of interests between him and America will re-emerge".
"Policies based on changing sides will always end up against a deal wall", the blogger notes, calling Erdogan's actions a serious mistake.
Hi Ghassan – your articles always were interesting – so human and easy to read and understand. And adorable Intibah who was always ready to comment on my comments. I felt so honored. She is so fiery and ready to inter-act.
I hope Saker reopens his blog soon. I believe that even the globalists don’t want nuclear war. And the US is going to back down. They can’t fight a war they can afford and where are they going to get the ammo for it ?
Everything they need is made in China – I don’t understand this chaos the people behind Biden – aligned with the globalists are doing – is it to de-stabilize the US population perhaps ? So they won’t fight the CBDCs and all the other horrible things the globalists have planned for us
But I do understand Saker’s apprehension of being apprehended as a Russian spy – and its only wisdom that is driving this closure. There are many voices now – whereas at the beginning of Maidan – there was only Saker God Bless Saker
But I hope so much he will only come back to us soon
Love Ann
Very good. You said everything I should say.
Julio Souza
That is such a generous, well timed tribute to the Saker, thank you from th heart, and the life fulcrum you speak of, will be missed by a great many. The future is brave indeed, and we will meet again.
Thank you Ghassan. It was pleasure to read your articles.
Thanks for a great read. My feelings too.
We all hate to see the Saker’s website go.
But we all also know the ground is shifting, and one has to do what one has to do.
I wish the Saker the best, and much prosperity on whatever new adventures his future will bring.
From this CNN article* posted just today, it looks like a lockdown might be on the horizon.
Sounds like the internet is going to be reigned in.
The Saker may be getting out of Dodge just in time…….. . . . .
*https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/18/tech/section-230-explainer/index.html
Ghassan,
Your words, most eloquent, capture my sentiments about Andrei and his blog. Since 2014 if not sometime before, I have come to the Vineyard of the Saker almost every day on which I have had access to the computer, sometimes early in the morning with my coffee or late at night with a glass of cold milk. It has been part of my physical, mental and spiritual routine for nearly ten years.
Thank you and Intibah for your work and contributions. I pray that God will bring us all back together in a time of His choosing.
Ghassan, you will be missed, as will the The Saker site, I hate to call it a “blog” because it almost sounds demeaning. It is a huge loss, when I read the news Andrei was shutting it down I was not suprized considering he had warned previously it may come to that, but when I read the news it still made me feel deeply upset. Some would say, big deal, it’s only a website, there are others, there will be others, so what? Infact, normally, that is the kind of thing I would say. But not The Saker, it is so much more than either a “blog” or even a “website”, it has been my first point of call for years every time I switch on my PC & click on the internet, straight to The Saker to see what is new & interesting there, & always anticipating articles by favourite authors such as yourself, & Andrei’s. It is heartbreaking. Maybe I am being melodramatic, it is not really in my character, but it does feel like something is being lost that can not be replaced. You will be missed Ghassan.
Very well said, great loss for seekers of facts and truth.
https://www.youtube.com/live/q_dMAQ2viCg?feature=share
There is hope.
I love and will miss you all.
🕊️
They first offer you money. Then they threaten your life. At least that’s how it went in my experience.
Dearest Peace Warrior Andrei, “The Saker”,
I struggle to adequately express my appreciation of and gratitude for a soul like you.
You were present, and for sure will continue to be present, in the most crucial time of a global transition, one where all of us in this community know that goodness will finally overcome evil.
For the past decade I witnessed your selfless, no doubt exhausting mission to lead, in a participatory and empowering manner, a global movement, via the world-wide-web, of seekers of and contributors to the unveiling of facts, truths and the values of a dignified Russia, a Russia that has continued holding out the hand of friendship and integrity towards other “partners” hell-bent on choosing the dark side at every turn, and more so as they slip into a decline.
For those arrogant and mired in the illusion of feeling exceptional and that only those of their paradigm matter, they will hopefully learn that a mighty nation or empire is only mighty because it stands before God and is humble.
Thank you, Russia, for caring for Syria in the way you did and still do.
Thank you Saker, for being passionate about the nations that suffer at the hands of the failing empire.
Thank you for welcoming Ghassan and I (since 2015) to contribute our thoughts (articles) to the incredible phenomenon of the platform, community and movement you began.
And finally thank you to the readers, authors and all the supporters who also not only cared about Russia but also Russia’s friends.
Your friend forever,
“Intibah Kadi”