Intibah and Ghassan Kadi

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

APPEAL TO MEMBERS; RUSSIA AND SYRIA. By Ghassan Kadi 16 November 2013

*Posted to the members of "The Syrian Revolution; The Untold Story" which was the first serious and large pro-Syria group which Intibah was an admin of along with Chris Assad and Hiba Kelanee/Syriana/Salaam Shaheen). By mid 2013 we had our first problems with nefarious agents, first the ones sowing doubt about Syria's allies and then thousands of trolls that eventually succeeded in overwhelming the Syrian-Levantine led movement and diverting it.
APPEAL TO MEMBERS ; RUSSIA AND SYRIA
G
hassan Kadi
16 November 2013


There have been a lot of speculations recently about the role of Russia in the Levant, especially after the Syrian Chemical Weapons (CW) deal.

The issue has caused quite a bit of controversy ranging from supporters for the whole Russian intervention including that of the CW deal, to utter rejectionists who regard the deal as tantamount to Syrian surrender and a total Syrian sell-out to Russia.

In some instances, the differences escalated to a level that seems to be increasingly becoming divisive even amongst the ranks of the pro-Syrian camp. This can become a serious matter unless debated openly and rationally. At the moment, this issue seems to be ignored, perhaps in fear of creating divisions. The anti-Russian camp is perhaps feeling marginalized because those who do not support this view (who are by the way the majority) are not debating the matter. In an attempt to clear the air and bolstering solidarity, I suggest that we debate this matter and invite those who have different opinions to make their contributions.

Arabi Souri, is an outstanding member of this group whom I greatly cherish and respect. He has made many significant contributions in exposing the truth about Syria. Most of my thoughts and analyses go hand-in-hand with those of Arabi and I have learnt so much in the past from his input. However, on the issue of the role of Russia I vehemently disagree with his vision.

There is no doubt that Putin is an aspiring world leader and that he sees that Russia has interests in Syria, but to regard the current Russian role as an act of treachery against Syria is totally and utterly ill-founded and there is no evidence to support. In fact, if anything, the evidence points exactly in the other direction.

To be brief and straight to the point, I will outline in dot point the reasons that make me adopt the “pro-Russian” side (if I can refer to it as such):

a. Russia is regaining and restoring its global role. Its first stand was in Georgia back in 2009.

b. Russia made it clear in the UNSC time and time again that it will veto any anti-Syrian resolution, and it did.

c. Russia made clear to NATO that attacking Syria without a UNSC resolution is a red line that will not be tolerated.

d. Russia has never put boots on the ground in foreign nations, not even in Vietnam. Not helping Syria directly is a Russian tradition.

e. The US thought that Russia was bluffing and launched 2 missiles heralding an all-out attack on Syria in early September. Russia thwarted the attack and destroyed one of the missiles, and hacked into the other one and had it diverted.

f. The Syrian CW’s were already an ageing liability.

g. The purpose of weapons CW’s included is protection. Syria’s CW’s performed without having to be fired. They served their role to the highest expectation.

h. The CW deal was a face-saving exercise for the USA and an attempt to find a political resolution, Russia’s and Syria’s way. It was a deal that America was forced to accept, not the other way around. Never before did the USA huff and puff about attacking a country to back off later until Syria. This is the greatest joint Russian Syrian victory ever, and those who do not see it as it is do not have a proper vision of global politics.

i. Russia and Syria want to go to Geneva II when war on the ground is fait accompli. Even Kerry said to Lavrov recently what is the point in going to Geneva after the Syrian Army scores more victories.

j. If Putin is a con man as his adversaries describe him, Assad is not a fool, neither is Nasrallah.

k. For Russia to step up the global ladder, it needed and found strong regional allies. It support for Syria is because Syria proved to be strong.

l. On the other hand, the US allies proved to be weak and worthless and America found itself having to justify to its own people its support for Al-Qaeda.

m. Even without the 2-missiles saga, that is still largely denied, America was very reluctant to strike Syria. It is a nation that is already bankrupt and engaged in many expensive wars.

n. The Anti-Syrian alliance is breaking up. The Emir of Qatar abdicated and his powerful man Hamad had to go with him. Egypt is out of the grip of the Muslim Brotherhood, Qatar and Turkey. Turkey is witnessing internal turmoil and is having second thoughts about its involvement in Syria. The USA knows it cannot strike Syria. Israel is disappointed that the US is having talks with Iran. It is only Bandar who is still trying to pull a trick out of a hat and hope for a miracle that gives him some bargaining edge in Geneva II. None of this would have happened if the Syrian Army didn’t have enough time to deal with the situation on the ground. Had Russia not vetoed the UNSC resolutions against Syria, history would have taken another course.

o. The US and its allies are in a total loss in Syria. They have lost the ground battle, they are divided, and they have lost their initiative and long-term policy. They simply do not know which way to go.

Arabi, in a recent article, argued that all of the above is a façade and that it would be impossible to see Saudi Arabia standing on its own without America. I agree with the second part of this statement. Saudi Arabia cannot stand up on its own and America has no allies left in the region except Israel which will not go into an all-out war with Syria to please Bandar.

Syrian Girl Partisan goes in her anti-Russian rhetoric to the extent of attacking the wisdom and intelligence of President Assad. This is improper, demoralizing and harmful. Again, Syrian Girl has been a very active pro-Syrian activist and she too has played a big role in spreading the truth about Syria. However, her stand on Russia and on President Assad is quite vicious and needless.

My call to Arabi, Syrian Girl and their anti-Russian camp is to have a debate about this subject if they wish. Thus far, this issue has not been handled properly. As a matter of fact, there has recently been a public display of discord among members.

Just because they do not seem to understand the changes in the geo-political order of the world and the rise of Russia (and the BRICS axis in general), some anti-Russian advocates have made some comments about those who support Russia’s role in Syria and branded them as being irrational and naïve. This has been going on for some time and I was hoping it would simply fizzle away, but it only got worse.


This is inappropriate to say the least and should not continue. Any rational discussion is something that we should welcome on this group and any other group provided that it sticks to rationality and refraining from throwing insults and making personal attacks.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/283089981710448/permalink/685189741500468/

*screen shots of  the post are directly below for record keeping purpose but scroll further down for very interesting comments from members are pasted below. Some members, such as Arabi Sour's comments are no longer visible as that particular profile is deactivated.

















Posted by Intibah Wakeup Kadi at 9:23 AM No comments:
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Labels: 2013

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

NETANYAHU'S CHOICES By Ghassan Kadi 21 May 2013

NETANYAHU’S CHOICES
By Ghassan Kadi
21 May 2013

Victory in Syria is looming. It could be a few weeks or even a few days away. But we should not lower our guards and keep fighting at all fronts.

The Anti-Syrian Coalition is now in a deep quagmire, to put it politely. The party who is deepest is no doubt Israel and specifically its PM Netanyahu who has been huffing and pufffing right, left and centre throwing threats around when his “mighty” IDF was unable to stave off even Gaza and when his “Iron Dome” was unable to even stop the home-made Qassam missiles.

Netanyahu has a few choices left, and he hates them all no doubt. He can sit back and abandon his allies in Syria and allow them to get slaughtered. No skin off his nose, after all those who believe they are allies are no more than tools and instruments, and this not only includes the FSA and their cohorts, but also the Gulfies all the way up their hierarchy ranks.

His second option would be to engage in an all-out war with Syria, and he knows well the consequences. He well knows that this will have the potential to drag in all regional powers into the battle field; including Iran and Turkey. He well knows that all Israeli cities will be showered with missiles and that the superiority of his  air force is now in doubt.

The third option is to just shut up and keep redrawing his red-line in order to save face.

The danger is in the fact that this man is crazy and criminal. Will he consider a fourth option and flex his nuclear muscle and use it to restore the myth of the undefeatable army? If he does, the consequences will be much graver than a regional war. But Israel has always maintained that it will use its nuclear power if its existence is under threat. How do they define this threat is yet to be seen.

The inevitable loss of the Islamists in Syria will see a demise in their rising power in the region and the new un-declared Islamist/Israeli alliance will be aborted before it becomes an open reality. The domino effect will follow soon in Lebanon, and this may give King Abdullah of Jordan an incentive to “black-September” them in his kingdom. The MB stand in both Egypt and Tunisia is not looking very good and the Islamist regime in Tunisia is already clashing with the Salafists. But most importantly perhaps, after losing the war in Syria, the Qataris and Saudis will be re-evaluating their policies and alliances and their continued financing to radicalism will most likely stop. If they do not take this decision themselves, they will be coerced to do it because the USA will not allow the Islamists militants to get out of Syria to fight NATO troops elsewhere. If anything, the US will insist that they stay in Syria and get killed there.

Back to Netanyahu, in reality only the use of nuclear weapons in the region can change the new emerging balance of power in the Levant. Netanyahu is not only sitting between a rock and a hard place, but his only escape from this is through a swamp.

Image may contain: 1 person


Originally published in the Facebook Group, The Syrian Revolution; The Untold Story
https://www.facebook.com/groups/283089981710448/permalink/597279670291476/





Posted by Intibah Wakeup Kadi at 9:23 AM No comments:
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About Me

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Intibah Wakeup Kadi
Ghassan is from a political activist family in Lebanon. A Lebanese national with both parents born in Syria, with family equally spread across both, due to his family and community background, felt he could better express himself more freely, tackling highly contentious subjects, by using a pseudonym. His writings are informed by his interesting, rich, but traumatic background. He grew up in the household of a very influential SSNP figure. It was young Ghassan who urged his father to end the SSNP - Assad feud. In 1976, he told his father; “they broke your bones in jail because you said “Tahiya Suria” and yet your party still allows this wedge to continue between it and the Syrian government.” It took two days for his father to start making initial contacts with Syrian officials which eventually led to the first meeting of Abdullah Saade, the then SSNP President, and Abdul Halim Khaddam and, the rest is history. That was the first ever link between the national movement in Lebanon and the Syrian government after the rift Jumblatt created. After that, all the other parties joined in. https://intibahwakeup.blogspot.com/2017/11/background-of-ghassan-and-intibah-kadi.html
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