Friday, November 10, 2017

UNDERSTAND THE BIGGER PICTURE OF SYRIA: HISTORY WITH AN AGENDA (updated)


Understand the bigger picture of Syria: history with an agenda (Updated)
Ghassan Kadi’s Three Foundational Pieces on the War on Syria (from 2011),
Introduced and Presented by Tony Seed.

““Many of you can see through the eyes of the media you chose to follow about the crisis in Syria. Many of you believe the over-rated propaganda that hundreds of channels or papers place out there meant to sway public opinion. But to understand the truth of a situation, you must first study the history of the situation. There lays the truth and lies in what is known as a media war. Understanding how Syria rose, and what she is going through right now is the most vital tool to fight with fact, not fiction.” | Three articles by GHASSAN KADI*”


https://tonyseed.wordpress.com/2011/06/22/understand-the-bigger-picture-of-syria-history-with-an-agenda/

Understand the bigger picture of Syria: history with an agenda

“Many of you can see through the eyes of the media you chose to follow about the crisis in Syria. Many of you believe the over-rated propaganda that hundreds of channels or papers place out there meant to sway public opinion. But to understand the truth of a situation, you must first study the history of the situation. There lays the truth and lies in what is known as a media war. Understanding how Syria rose, and what she is going through right now is the most vital tool to fight with fact, not fiction.” | Three articles by GHASSAN KADI*

Introduction

This is a series of articles published in English from June 2011, published on several pages and pro-Syrian publications and since then collected and published in the book An Epic of Integrity: The Chronicles of the War on Syria (June 2016). The articles were originally written in English to convey the true story of what is happening in Syria to the world. At the time, most Westerners and their media outlets were far from the facts. Arab activists were busy writing articles in Arabic, and the articles that we could write and publish were the first articles written and published by Arab activists in English.

The first three articles reproduced here are founding articles that explain the background of the war and how Syria’s enemies colluded and why they cooperated with each other.  It is worth noting that they contain the following important points:

  • First: showing the weakening of the anti-Syrian coalition and its ideological fragmentation and the multiplicity of its objectives. This is a great indication that its disintegration and collapse was only a matter of time;
  • Second: Clarifying the objective of the plot and determining it by striking the resistance and ensuring Israel’s security; and
  • Third, when writing these articles, there were no terrorist organizations on the ground, but the articles had begun to warn about the future role of Sunni fundamentalism and to warn of its love for criminality and bloodshed before the emergence of that trend to the public and before the establishment of the Syrian Front of victory.

It is not surprising that different peoples and factions supported each other to fight Syria. Syria is the thorn in the U.S. drive for domination of the United States, the eyes of Israel, and the backward Wahhabi fundamentalist Islamic Gulf and the Lebanese right that is allied with with the U.S. and Israel. Nor is it surprising that Syria has attracted its supporters in the local, regional and international resistance, has overcome difficulties and is winning.

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All in all, the articles published in Ghassan Kadi’s book were written over a period of five years, and reflect the developments as they occurred since 2011. After publishing the book in the language of its original English writing, encouraging readers and their urgent request to translate the articles into Arabic, we decided to translate it and publish it in Arabic with a view not only as a war story, but also to the future. – Intibah Kadi

**Ghassan Kadi, a native of Beirut of Syrian origin, is an analyst of Middle East affairs and the author of An Epic of Integrity: The Chronicles of the War on Syria (June 2016). Visit Intibah and Ghassan Kadi’s website.



The anti-Syrian cocktail

bandar-bush-4

Prince Bandar Bin Sultan is the son of the Saudi crown prince, but he seems to run his political life on the basis of having a state within a state. He is a rogue prince, but with a flavour that suits the American agenda.

Just like America supported the rise of Bin Laden back in the eighties because his rogue nature had an anti Soviet flavour, the USA is now supporting Prince Bandar because of his anti-Iranian flavour.

Bandar is in essence a Sunni fundamentalist from the Wahhabi sub-sect. His sworn enemies are the Shiites for no reason other than sectarian prejudice.

har2

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He is terrified by the regional rise of Iran (Shiite state). Many moderates share those views, but Bandar is prepared to go to extremes in fighting the Iranian rise. He found a good ally in Saad Hariri of Lebanon. Saad Hariri accuses Syria of killing his father Rafik Hariri and is a sworn enemy of the Shiite Lebanese Hezbollah.

saad-rafic-hariri

Bandar and his ally Saad see more danger in Hezbollah and Iran than they see in Israel. Syria, being an ally of Iran, becomes then the natural enemy of Bandar and is already the personal enemy of Saad.

It is important to note that the stands of Bandar and Saad are not based on strategic political alliances and/or on principles. Rather, they are based on mere sectarian bias and fanaticism.

Saad in his turn, turns to his home-grown fanatics to do his dirty work. He has been personally responsible for funding and training two ultra fundamentalist Sunni groups in Lebanon; Fateh Al-Islam and the Salafists.

Fateh Al-Islam
Fateh Al-Islam2

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(The United States designates Amin Al-Shihabi as a terrorist organization, but has yet to designated Fateh Al-Islam as a terrorist organization as other nations have done)

The former group (Fateh Al Islam) had to be quelled violently by the Lebanese Army in the Palestinian Al-Bared camp north of Tripoli (Lebanon’s second largest city). The battle was bitter and left the camp in total ruin. Thousands of Palestinian refugees had to be relocated. Ironically, that battle took place in 2007, at a time when the Lebanese government was headed by Fouad Seniora (a Saad Hariri man).

What is more ironic is that the USA supported the Lebanese Army to fight the very group it had helped establish. The Lebanese Army appealed to the US for assistance and America could not be seen in the international arena to refuse this but, at the same time, it was under the blessing of the USA that the Sunni fundamentalist alliance between Bandar Saad and Fateh Al Islam was forged.

Little is known about the fate of the Palestinian Shaker Al Absi, the leader of that group. All that is known about him is that he is on the “wanted” list and at large. However, Dai’i Al Islam Shahhal, the Tripoli-based leader of the Salafists is Lebanese and he gets the full support and cover from Saad Hariri.

The Salafists’ main agenda item is the destruction of Shiite Islam, but they are an Al-Qaeda type organization in every respect possible. Yet, they get the blessing of the USA via the tiered Saad Hariri / prince Bandar alliance.

As hard as it may be to believe, but the USA is in fact supporting a Sunni fundamentalist Al-Qaeda type organization in Lebanon.

Why would the USA do this?, one may ask. The answer is very simple.

The USA ranks its enemies in reference to their threat to Israel; not to the USA itself. So while America’s biggest current enemy is Al-Qaeda, Israel’s biggest current enemy is Hezbollah.

Hezbollaharmy

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Hezbollah gets its arms from Iran via Syria. Syria and Hezbollah are the natural enemies of Sunni fundamentalists.

If weakening Syria and Hezbollah means having to forge an alliance with Al-Qaeda, then the USA will do it for as long as this serves Israel.

Whilst the USA is fighting against Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, and NATO nations are losing young men and women in this war, the USA is in fact engaged in supporting a subsidiary of Al-Qaeda in Lebanon.

The Prince of Qatar is playing a big role in the anti-Syria alliance. Al-Jazeera (the prince’s pet newsagency) is fuelling the uprising in Syria.

Syria needs reform, and President Basshar embarked on the journey of reform soon after he took office. Admittedly, he did not manage to control the corrupt old guards. That said, Syria has flourished and became a haven of peace, security, and secularism.

Syria however has three groups of enemies. The Israeli American alliance is the natural enemy.

Within Syria, the fundamentalist Sunnis want to see an overthrow of the secular regime. Their slogans are to kill the Alawites (Shiite sub-sect to which president Assad belongs) and to evict the Christians to Lebanon. Those groups found a field day in the Arab uprising. Under the guise of a democratic movement, they are stirring up sectarian divisions and targeting Alawites.

Just outside the Syrian borders in Lebanon, there are many anti-Syrian Lebanese groups. It is as if the freaky USA/Al-Qaeda alliance is not weird enough, in Lebanon, the fundamentalist Sunnis (Salafists) found a good ally in the ultra rightwing Christian Lebanese fundamentalists (Lebanese Forces). What unites them is their hatred towards Syria.

If Assad falls, the USA/Israel alliance hopes to have him replaced by a fragmented and weakened Syria. This is a possibility, but that alliance fails to realize that some Syrians are now perhaps perplexed by what is happening, but once they realize the enormity of the conspiracy, they will unite under Basshar Assad or after his demise. They will not allow fragmentation.

The worst scenario for all involved, including the enemies of Syria, would be if the country falls under the rule of the Sunni fundamentalists. If this happens, Syria will suffer greatly in the short term. But the biggest loser in the short and long term, will be Israel.

Any one who cannot believe that such strange alliances can exist can go to Lebanon or Syria to find out the hard way. Any person or organization supporting the so-called Syrian revolution, believing that this would be tantamount to supporting freedom and democracy, should stop to have a second look. There is much more to this than meets the eye.

June 10, 2011


The anti-Syrian politics

In this closing chapter of the sequel of articles, it must be emphasized that the objective is not to defend Assad, but rather to explain some truths that are related to the recent history that led to this moment in time.

Some comments received reiterated that the focus must be on the future, but we study the past in order to be able to put the benefit of hindsight into practice.

In the not too distant past, Lebanon and Syria were fairly identical in most respects. Lebanon is the mountain region of the Syrian coast. Its state borders moved back and forth just like the borders of any other countries including super powers like France.

Lebanon christians

Historically, Lebanon housed a higher percentage of Christian population than Syria. Its mountainous terrain turned it into a refuge for Christians who feared religious persecution. Christianity however is not alien to Syria. In Maaloola and Sidnaya near Damascus, ancient Churches continue to make their prayers in Aramaic; the spoken language of Christ. Damascus itself houses the grave of John the Baptist inside its Grand Omayyad Mosque.

When the young Syrian and Lebanese states received their independence from France in the 40s, there was little difference between the countries. When the census was done earlier in 1932, some citizens were caught on the “wrong” side of the borders and families were split as half Lebanese and half Syrians. This included my family. Back then, no one seemed to care much.

The central bank for both states was the “Bank of Syria and Lebanon” and Lebanese currency had that name on its notes until the mid 1960s.

Arab_Defense_Pact_Signing_1957

The 1950s were a tumultuous time for Syria. It was a period of political unrest and political assassinations. In 1958, Syria became a part of the United Arab Republic when it united with Egypt under Nasser as president. On the 28th of September 1960, a military coup ended the union with Egypt. That coup was followed by a series of coups and it became almost impossible to keep track of such developments until the Baath party finally took over by a military coup on the 8th of March 1963.

baath part

The Baathist coup was followed by more turmoil and inter-party rivalry which did not end until Hafez Al-Assad assumed power after the “Corrective Movement” in 1970.

The turbulent 50’s continued into the 60’s where Syria experienced a very tough time. The political unrest resulted in an exodus of wealth and entrepreneurs. The natural recipient of that exodus was Lebanon. Even without the Syrian influx, Lebanon was having its golden age. The Lebanese civil unrest of the summer of 1958 was soon forgotten and Lebanon became known as Switzerland of the East.

hafez

President Hafez Al-Assad

The Syria that Hafez Al-Assad inherited was poor and corrupt. It had little infrastructure, under developed agriculture and industries, and to top it off, it was in a state of war with Israel.

What contributed more to the Syrian/Lebanese schism was that Syria had an autocratic political regime, and Lebanon was a tax haven that had a political system which was very close to a Western style democracy.

As Lebanon was getting richer and more open to the world, Syria was getting poorer and more closed up. Crossing the borders from Lebanon into Syria became similar to crossing the borders from San Diego USA to Tijuana Mexico.

Nation-building was paramount on Assad’s agenda. For this to happen, very strict austerity measures had to be put in place. And here is something that the West cannot understand. To put such austerity measures into action, a leader cannot be democratically elected. Democratically-elected leaders are not able to implement severe measures without losing the next elections. The continuity of strict nation-building projects demands either dictatorship or bipartisanism which is virtually impossible to find in a place where party politics dictate that any thing can be used as a political weapon.

1975

By the mid 70’s, Lebanon’s golden age was coming to an end. The Western style democracy soon turned into anarchy, and the country succumbed into a long and bitter civil war that had a strong sectarian foundation.

In the 70’s, as Lebanon was breaking loose and as its people were adopting the law of militia groups, the Syrians were ruled by an iron fist that did not tolerate any sectarian divisions and any form of political freedom that would mimic the neighboring chaotic Lebanon.

The wheel of fate started to turn the other way, and this time, it was in the favour of Syria.

All the while Lebanese youths were going to get military training in sectarian militia camps and were fed with sectarian prejudice, Syrian youths were conscripted in the national secular army and given lessons in patriotism.

Whilst Lebanese militia groups were kidnapping, maiming, torturing and killing other Lebanese on sectarian grounds, it became illegal in Syria to even ask another citizen about his/her religion with a mandatory jail sentence in place.

The Lebanese citizen grew up believing that he/she can live his/her own way under his/her own law. The Syrian citizen grew up knowing that there is law and order and severe punishments would ensue if those laws are broken.

The Syrian regime gained its dictatorial notoriety by implementing very strict rules of law and order, and whilst the one-party rule meant a continued grab of power by the Baath Party, it also meant that Syria would not slump into a Lebanese-style multi-party anarchy.

The Syrian Intelligence (Moukhabarat) became a very powerful organization. Styled like the KGB, it did not leave any chance for dissent.

In the late 70’s and early 80’s, the Syrian Moslem Brotherhood began to stir anti-Assad passion among the Sunnis. They regarded Assad (an Alawite) as an infidel. They ambushed and killed several top ranking Alawite military personnel and Syria was about to follow the foot steps of Lebanon in its civil war.

Assad crushed the revolt ruthlessly. In an unprecedented move, the Syrian army attacked the brotherhood in a mosque where the rebels thought they would be safe.

Those rebels were not peaceful democracy campaigners. They were an armed bunch of murderers with a fundamentalist Sunni agenda; similar to what is now known as Al-Qaeda.

Rifaathafezassad

One of the biggest challenges that Hafez Al-Assad had to confront was his home-grown corruption. His own brother, Rafaat Al-Assad, established a state within a state. He was a corrupt officer surrounded by a bunch of thugs and looters. Rafaat was exiled to France where he could not cause any trouble.

Assad managed to rid himself of many of the corrupt officers and officials but he never was able to do this fully. Corruption is a universal “disease’ and Syria is not immune.

Needless to say that the brutality of the Moukhabarat was invariably unjust and many innocent people were incarcerated some were allegedly never seen again.

Nevertheless, when Hafez Al-Assad died in 2000, Syria had been transformed. The country became a safe haven, a secular model, and a politically stable country with a growing economy and a good foundation of an infrastructure.

bashar becomes president

When Basshar Al-Assad took over the presidency, he fast tracked the process of reform. The tough austerity measures of his father’s era had already paid dividend and were eased. Imports were allowed to flow in as the economy was able to afford them. The Internet and Mobile phones became a part of Syrian life. The country prospered as private enterprise regained its position in the thriving economy. And last but not least, some political freedom was allowed. Parties such as the Lebanese-rooted Syrian National Socialist Party and the Communist Party, to name some, were given the freedom to operate. The political freedom that Basshar was not to tolerate was the one that had sectarian agendas and/or the one that would call for armed revolt.

bashar becomes president 2000

Any person who denies that Basshar Al-Assad had embarked on the journey of reform from the day he took office is either ill-informed, or deliberately twisting the truth.

Ironically, the reforms that the West demands of Assad are already getting introduced one at a time. They cannot be rushed in simply because this is what the USA and France demand today.

If anything, France’s biggest promise to the peoples of Lebanon and Syria was to keep them segregated. General Gouraud made this very clear after his troops savagely massacred the outnumbered and ill-equipped Syrian army led by the gallant Youself Al Azmeh in Maysaloun in 1920. This same general is notoriously renowned for stepping his foot on the tomb of Salladin in Damascus saying “we have returned”. It was France which bombed Damascus and its famous Hamidiyye Souk. For the French FM Alain Juppe to make claims today that France cares about Syria and Syrian people is quite laughable.

Basshar’s biggest failing is that he did not do a house cleaning like his father did. Basshar is surrounded by a huge number of very good men and women working with him to serve Syria. However, there is a handful of bad apples around him that need to be plucked out. He knows well who they are and they should be on his priority list after restoring peace and order in Syria.

With his failings and short-comings, Basshar Al-Assad and the Assad legacy have created a prosperous and stable Syria, introduced many political and economic reforms, and domestically stood up against sectarianism and fundamentalism while on the regional arena stood up single-handedly against the American/Israeli plots. Last but not least, the legacy secured the defeat of Israel in Lebanon.

Bashar_Al_Assad

Basshar Al-Assad does not display any of the traits of a unpatriotic ruler who accumulates wealth and lives an opulent life like Mubarak or Bin Ali of Tunisia. Reports from people who know Assad consistently maintain that he is a humble man.

This is also evident in any of his official appearances. He has been able to holiday and move freely around Syria with his family without the need of protection and indeed live a very normal life. It is hard to believe that he is not distressed at what is happening to his country.

Even if one would stretch a very long bow and assume that Assad is indeed personally responsible for all of the recent bloodshed in Syria, any person with good knowledge of Syria would reiterate that any replacement of Assad will very highly likely lead to much more bloodshed. When this arguement was put forward by Mubarak it was indeed an act of scaremongering. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt did not have a violent past like its Syrian counterpart.

If Assad goes down, Sunni fundamentalism is likely to replace a balanced secular system, anarchy will replace stability, economic uncertainty will replace growth, and there is no guarantee at all that democracy will ensue.

There is no valid argument for replacing Assad. Those who are making this call are not offering any better alternatives. They are simply letting off steam and seeking vengeance. How can this be better for Syria or the rest of the world? Do the Arabs need a new Iraq? Does America need a new Afghanistan?

June 9, 2011


The anti-Syrian vendetta

The background of the Western stand behind so-called Syrian revolution is hard to understand without a proper understanding of the recent history of the region.

Luckily, we only need to go back to 1982, the year Israel invaded Lebanon and ousted the PLO from Lebanon.

Israel_invasion_1982

Just prior to the 1982 invasion, Israel had secured its borders with both Egypt and Jordan with peace treaties. The uneasy quiet on the Syrian front was likely to stay that way. Syria is not capable to launch a major conventional attack on Israel. That status quo gave enough security to Israel. The only thorn in Israel’s backside was the presence of the PLO in Lebanon, and in South Lebanon to be more specific.

By ousting the PLO, Israel believed that Lebanon has become a subservient country and that it was going to be able to install a puppet regime, and why would it not believe so? The PLO was driven out, the Lebanese capital was under its control, and the pro-Israeli leader of the Lebanese Forces (Bashir Gemayel) was elected to be president of Lebanon.

Bashir Gemayel Becomes President of Lebanon

When Gemayel was assassinated by a member of the Syrian National Social Party (a Lebanese political party that promotes the idea of Greater Syria), Israel lost a powerful ally and a power broker. Under the presidency of his brother Amin (who was elected a few days after the assassination of Bashir), the Lebanese government was coerced to enter peace talks with Israel. A peace agreement was reached on the 17th of May 1983 but Amin Gemayel did not ratify it. He was undoubtedly worried to pay for it with his blood.

It looked, however, like it was a question of time before Lebanon and Israel signed a peace agreement.

USMC-Lebanon82-49

The Multi-National Force commanders meet to discuss mutual problems of peacekeeping and defence, left to right: BGen Franco Angioni, Italy; Col James M. Mead, United States; BGen Michel Datin, France; and LtCol. John C. Cochrane, Great Britain.

During that period, the Syrian influence on Lebanese politics was reduced to almost nothing despite the continued presence of Syrian forces in the part of Lebanon that remained outside Israel’s control. The presence of Israeli forces in virtually half of Lebanon together with the later presence of American/French/Italian peace-keeping forces in Beirut, not to mention the muscle power of the US sixth fleet and its pride USS New Jersey was more than overwhelming. The very thought of resistance was unfathomable.

The situation was very desperate and virtually hopeless. How could Lebanon, the small fragmented country, rise up and defeat the many enemies within and without?

And then, from the ashes rose the Lebanese Resistance. With the support and strategic genius and tenacity of Hafez Al-Assad, the Lebanese Resistance was able to score a multitude of painful blows to the Western alliance.

To make a long story short, this culminated in an unprecedented defeat of Israel. For the first time since its infamous inception, Israel had to retreat from Lebanon. Never before had Israel given up Arab land without trading it for something of value. Israel called its retreat a strategic withdrawal. It was in fact a very humiliating defeat. This defeat of Israel was the biggest victory of Syria and Lebanon and the crown jewel of Hafez Al-Assad’s political career and greatest achievement. He lived enough to see this victory and passed away a few weeks later.

Israel’s gamble in Lebanon failed abysmally. The PLO was replaced by a much more potent and much better organized Hezbollah, and Syria was back in Lebanon in greater force.

It was probably at that time that Israel and the USA decided to escalate their plots against Syria. The young and little-experienced Basshar Al-Assad was seen as an easier target than his seasoned father. Basshar was however not scared of reform like his father was. He opened up Syria to the world and made huge steps towards political and economic reform. No doubt, more needed to be done. Basshar needed to clean up his camp and get rid of some serious cronies. This however is not the topic of this article. That said, the West needs to realize that what it perceives as a perfect political system ie democracy, does not work everywhere; needless to say that America’s biggest allies and friends in the Middle East are dictators.

When Bush was elected, he had around him the infamous circle of Neo Conservatives. These were a group of pro-Zionist fanatics. Perle, Wolfewitz and Co had one thing and one thing only in mind; to use the tenure of Bush to buy an everlasting peace for Israel.

They had their eye on their strategic enemy; Syria. Attacking Syria however was a difficult concept to sell to the world. They had to come up with a smarter plan. They had to find an enemy that the world loves to hate. They found the perfect one and the perfect excuse.

September 11 gave the infamous Bush alliance a good excuse to justify escalating the rhetoric against Saddam. Furthermore, in Iraq, the alliance found a good lure for oil-thirsty hyenas. The Neo-Cons rounded up the fanatics and Cheney rounded up the scavengers. The war against Iraq became history.

Unlike what many people think. The invasion of Iraq was not about petrol. Petrol was only the lubricant. America invaded Iraq to protect Israel.

But how does invading Iraq protect Israel even though Iraq and Israel do not share any borders?

Destabilizing Iraq and removing the threat of Saddam’s scuds was seen as good enough, but there was much more on America’s mind.

America was planning to use Iraq as a stepping stone to attack Syria and Iran.

In fact, soon after Bush’s arrogant declaration that his mission in Iraq has been accomplished, America started to accuse Syria of trouble in the border region of Iraq; just as planned. America was trying to show the world that it could not control Iraq properly unless it controlled Syria. The same was planned for Iran.

In its arrogance, the USA believed that it was mighty enough to attack and occupy Iraq, Syria and Iran.

But just like Israel got bogged down in Lebanon a decade earlier, the USA soon realized that controlling Iraq was not a possibility. Instead of turning against Syria, the USA realized that it was already in a very deep mess that it is still trying to get out of.

Aseel-Iraq-refugee-family

Syria took over one million Iraqi refugees and in doing so, it inadvertently helped the resilience of Iraq. But even without this help, the USA and Israel became increasingly at disease with Syria and its growing strength in the area, especially that it signed a strategic alliance with Iran.

The Assad legacy has outsmarted the American Israeli alliance twice by then. Hezbollah has grown much stronger and its missiles reached deep into Israeli territory in 2006. Never more before did Israel and the USA want to see Assad fall.

Israel and the US are both aware that if Basshar Assad gets toppled he will most likely be replaced by Sunni fundamentalists. As a matter of fact, the USA has been sponsoring the Lebanese-based Sunni fundamentalists (Salafists) for some years. The USA and Israel are prepared to take this risk and much prefer an Al-Qaeda type regime in Syria to that of Assad.

At the end of the day, America will fight the Arab and Moslem worlds, create enemies for itself, send itself broke, bend over and backwards, just to support that illegitimate state of piracy that calls itself Israel.

The Western stand behind the uprising in Syria is not one that is aimed for reform as it alleges. America does not give a hoot about political freedom in Syria. America and Israel have a score to settle with the Assad legacy and they are capitalizing on the Arab revolt. Helped by their Saudi cronies, they are finding new recruits; the Prince of Qatar.

NATO Deputy Secretary General meets the Crown Prince of Qatar

H.H. Sheikh Tameem Bin Hamad Al Thani, Crown Prince of Qatar (left) shaking hands with H.E. Amb. Alessandro Minuto Rizzo, Deputy Secretary General of NATO

The Prince of Qatar is another regional dictator who is a good friend of both the USA and Israel. He hosted on Qatari soil the headquarters for the alliance of the infamous invasion of Iraq.

Al-Jazeera, his pet newsagency is using all its influence to fuel violence in Syria. For the Qatari Prince to think that his country is immune to an uprising similar to that in Bahrain is laughable to say the least.

To America and Israel, this is the time to even up the scores with Basshar Al Assad. To Basshar, it is a great moment of reckoning.

Source: From the blog site Intibah Wakeup”

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

THE ENIGMATIC MOHAMED BIN SALMAN By Ghassan Kadi 7 November 2017


THE ENIGMATIC MOHAMED BIN SALMAN
By Ghassan Kadi
7 November 2017

Ghassan Kadi’s take on the fast-moving developments in the region.

The enigmatic Mohamed Bin Salman

by Ghassan Kadi

Love him or hate him, Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman (MBS) is like no other prince that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has seen since its inception under the rule of his founding grandfather King Abdul Aziz in 1932 and the establishment of the Al-Saud dynasty that changed Arabia; including its name.

Some argue that even the worst of humans can do a bit of good. The question is this; is MBS capable of doing any?

MBS has been the architect of that awful and criminal war on Yemen. Tens of thousands of innocent Yemeni civilians have been killed either by Saudi-led raids or by starvation and diseases inflicted upon Yemen as a result of the war. Hundreds of thousands of Yemeni men, women and children are living under abject conditions; with lack of provisions, medication and basic requirements for survival.

On the account of Yemen alone, MBS is a war criminal, an architect of genocide, and ought to face justice.

His legacy in Yemen should not make us forget and ignore his sanctioning of the execution of Saudi Shiite scholar Nimr Nimr and many others, and his rabid ambition sweeping out anything and anyone in his way.

A few years ago, and before the death of the then Crown Prince Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz, the incumbent king Salman, father of MBS, was nowhere to be seen in the throne succession hierarchy. Saudi succession has always been left to a matter of “Shoura”, a council of princes (Bai’aa council) who decided how and when the third and fourth in line had to be picked; but the position of the Crown Prince was never a question, because it was always pre-determined many years prior to having to worry about the king’s successor.

With the many wives and sons that Saudi founding father King Abdul Aziz has had, he must have died thinking and believing that he had procreated enough to guarantee the survival of his dynasty, and in more ways than one, his hopes worked for four to five decades after his death. But in retrospect, that was a blessing with a hidden curse.

His first successors were the sons of his first wives. But more than six decades after his death, the generational change was not so much to be dictated by the father king, but rather by the maternal lineage.

Traditionally in polygamic societies, older wives and their children naturally loath younger wives and their children. When power is involved, the older generation tries hard, very hard, to hold on to it to make sure it does not get passed on to the children of the younger wives.

But because King Abdul Aziz had a fifty year age gap between his eldest and youngest sons, as older sons became kings, younger half-brothers had to inherit the throne because for as long as some direct sons of founder Abdul Aziz were still alive, the throne was not meant to skip the generation to appoint grandsons as kings.

It is this scenario that inadvertently allowed MBS to rise to power; the death of his older uncles.

It must be remembered that not only MBS, but his father King Salman, had lived their lives in a state of “discrimination”; albeit as members of the royal family with all the financial privileges. They were raised to understand that their royal status has its limits. They can have all the money they want, but no power; none whatsoever. They were made to feel like second class royals, for no reason other than being the sons and grandsons of the younger wives.

All the while, the sons and grandsons of the older wives of founder King Abdul Aziz lavished in power and wealth under the watchful eyes of royals who were designated to be “inferior” to them.

Much has been said and reported about the rorts and spoils of the Saudi royals and their debauched lifestyle, and no words of dismay and criticism can match those of young Saudis who have been recently educated and do not feel that they owe the royal family anything at all. Added to their voice of dis-satisfaction is the voice of women who virtually have no rights at all within the kingdom of sand.

It is within this atmosphere that MBS has found himself, by shear luck, by the virtue that the once fourth in line, Crown Prince Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz died before his half-brother King Abdullah.

The house of Saud was not ready for this, and the death of Sultan put the whole succession issue into jeopardy, and to the amazing fortune of MBS, his father eventually landed on the throne because he was the only surviving son of founding father Abdul Aziz who was in reasonable health to take the throne, and before the throne jumps the generation from the direct sons, Salman could not be ignored.

The elevation of Salman to the throne would have gone without much ramifications had he kept his nephew Mohamed Bin Nayef as his Crown Prince. Such a succession would have kept the tier of succession back into the box of the old princes. But Salman has a son who is different, and this son Mohamed, MBS, is seemingly like no other prince, and he had his father nominate him as the Crown Prince to the dismay of the generation of many grandchildren of the founding king who thought they were more worthy.

For many years, Al-Saud and their constituency agonized as to who was going to be the first grandson of founding king Abdul Aziz to assume the throne. A multitude of candidates have aspired to this position, and the most likely winner was Bandar Bin Sultan, the son of the would-be king, but that crown prince died before he became king and his son Bandar failed in his venture in Syria and missed out.

When the highly ambitious MBS found himself in a position that can secure his ascension to the throne, he had to make sure that nothing and no one stood in the way.

But ambition does not seem to be the only thing on MBS’s mind. The man does seem to have the attributes of a nation-builder; for better or for worse.

MBS is certainly trying to change the face of Saudi Arabia. As a matter of fact, he already has.

The recent arrests of top notch princes and government officials can indeed be seen as a crackdown on corruption as MBS claims. But the bigger message that MBS is giving his cousins is that he is the boss, and he can throw anyone in jail; and none is bigger than Al-Walid Bin Talal.

Al-Walid is incidentally not only the grandson of founding King Abdul-Aziz, but his mother is Lebanese, and his maternal grandfather is Lebanon’s first post-independence Prime Minister Riyad Al-Solh. Al-Walid was never interested in politics. He is perhaps the richest Saudi prince at a net worth estimated to exceed USD 50 bn. His interest is in business and in spending most of his life on board of one of his yachts in the Mediterranean. He is the status symbol of how “successful” and powerful a Saudi prince can be, and if anyone in the whole world can touch him and put him behind bars, it is MBS, and he did. The irony is that no clear charges have been laid; and this cements the theory that MBS is mainly trying to set into concrete the rules of the pecking order.

And former King Abdullah, who was endearingly called Abu Mutiib by those close to him, and this is in reference to his eldest son, well, where is Mutiib now? In jail with his cousin Al-Walid. If King Abdullah could have a sneak look from his grave, he would not recognize the royal court that he departed from less than 3 years ago.

And as events develop quickly, we learn that Aziz Bin Fahed, son of former King Fahed, has been killed in a gunfight between his body guards and police forces who were trying to apprehend him.

What we are witnessing in Saudi Arabia is nothing short of a coup d’etat.

No Saudi prince has ever been jailed in Saudi Arabia before; with the exception of Faisal Bin Musaed who killed his uncle the then King Faisal.

Even if there is a faint whim floating around in Saudi Arabia saying that princes are now facing accountability and can stand trial for corruption, then MBS has already done a great reform. This is because for decades, Saudi princes were above the law and above other humans and their rights in a manner that is fairly akin to their pre-democracy European predecessors.

Back to whether or not cruel monstrous men are capable of doing any good, and apart from his insane cruelty to the people of Yemen and bitter hatred to Shiite Islam and insatiable thirst for power, is MBS doing any good at all?

Well, he is going to allow Saudi women to drive and go to sporting stadiums. He is planning to dismantle the Shariah police (Mutawea). He commissioned a committee of clerics to review the Hadith of Prophet Mohamed PBUH in an attempt to remove any interpretations that can lead to violence. He is pushing for moderate Islam, and he is bringing accountability to the house of Saud. For someone who is not very familiar with Saudi Arabia this may not sound like much, but for fairness to MBS, such steps were utterly inconceivable just a few months ago.

His dream city project “Neom” is portrayed in its advertisement as a modern city with women not wearing Hijab. Perhaps MBS is a visionary and a nation builder. Perhaps he has a sound long-term vision to modernize Saudi Arabia as he claimed many times that he would. Perhaps he is so determined to lift Saudi Arabia from the doldrums of Wahhabism into modernity, and he realizes that the only way to do that is to remove all of the obstacles; including many royals who support the old ways.

This article is not an attempt to praise MBS, because perhaps also he is only a power monger. Mass genocidal murderers cannot be praised. That said, the dark side of people should not totally mask the bright side; if there is a bright side at all.

MBS is now in an ideologically paradoxical situation with one foot that is allegedly deeply entrenched into modernizing and reforming Saudi Arabia, and another foot that is sinking in the war in Yemen, a war that is based on the hatred and prejudices of the old ways that he is claiming he is trying to change. He has to make up his mind and stop being enigmatic, and if he truly wants to be the reformer who will be marked in history as the one who miraculously reformed the seemingly irreformable kingdom, he must first and foremost end the war on Yemen, respect the Yemenis political choices, and send the Yemenis reparations, food, medicines and aid instead of bombs.

Last but not least, speaking of reform, there is no bigger and more urgent reform that the Muslim World needs than mending the Sunni-Shiite divide and which has been growing into a hugely dangerous rift that can set the whole region ablaze and make the wars we have seen recently in the area as only a prelude. Under the excuse of blaming the West and the “divide-and-conquer” strategy, the Muslim World keeps feeding the dispute that was based on the succession of Prophet Mohamed PBUH. The least Sunnis and Shia can do is to agree to disagree and live in peace with each other instead of stoking wars and proxy wars all the while blaming Western interference for their own failures and hatred for each other.

But MBS is not giving the indication that he has the substance for reform of this caliber. He is one of those Muslim leaders who invite the West in and beg to buy arms from it in order to help him fight his rivals in the Muslim World.

The real question to ask is this; what is it really that MBS is after? Certainly, he is seeking ultimate and unrivaled power within Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, he is trying to modernize his kingdom and gain the support of the educated Saudi male youth and females, and this support should bolster his tenure on the throne. But if he wants to be the historic reformer that he makes out himself to be, he must realize that he cannot be both that and a bigot. There is no better way for reform for him to embark upon than breaking ranks with the American-Israeli camp and trying to make amends with Iran and put an end, once and for all, to the senseless Sunni-Shiite mutual fear and anxiety.

Will MBS be the man to take the conciliatory initiative with Iran? Unlikely. If anything, he is upscaling his anti-Iran stance and promising it war. Given his close American and Israeli links and his strategic reliance on American military hardware, he cannot break away even if he tries, and he will most likely implode, but his implosion can potentially bring down the Al-Saud dynasty with him. However, with MBS we have learnt to expect the unexpected, and the next surprise; positive or negative, can be just around the corner.

Sunday, November 5, 2017

THE FALL AND FALL OF HARIRI by Ghassan Kadi 5 November 2017

THE FALL AND FALL OF HARIRI
By Ghassan Kadi
5 November 2017

Politics in Lebanon is exceedingly complex. Ghassan gives a brief background on Hariri and offers some thoughts on the reasons behind Hariri’s sudden resignation. With events in the region proceeding at a dizzying pace, and especially the news of arrests in Saudi Arabia which happened after Ghassan submitted his piece, some of the thoughts in Ghassan’s article may merely represent a snapshot in time as the landscape keeps changing, but essentially the article discusses Saudi Arabia’s attempts to regain control over Lebanon.
http://thesaker.is/the-fall-and-the-fall-of-hariri/

The Fall and the Fall of Hariri

The Fall and the Fall of Hariri

by Ghassan Kadi

The sudden resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri raises a number of questions.

To fast track the main relevant events of the last decade or so, Hariri was Saudi Arabia’s favourite kid on the Lebanese block. After all, his father was a close friend and a business partner of Prince Fahed, who later on became King Fahed. And because he harbours similar anti-Shiite passions like his Saudi allies, Hariri and Saudi Arabia became natural partners in Lebanese anti-Hezbollah and anti-Syria politics and partners in the ”War on Syria” at all levels; including facilitating the transit of fighters and munitions from Lebanon into Syria.

The loss of the gamble in Syria and the change of guards in the Saudi hierarchy and the elevation of King Salman and his son Mohamed (MBS) to power, Hariri found himself demoted. Not only his family did not have strong ties with the new guards, but also MBS seemed to loath him. To add insult to injury, with the down turn of the Saudi economy, Hariri’s main Saudi company (Oger) was under severe financial stress, and instead of being given the Saudi government subsidy and huge railway contract it was promised, it received zilch and it was forced into bankruptcy under the deliberate watchful eye of MBS.

Hariri was punished by MBS for his failures in Lebanon; or rather for the success of Hezbollah. And even within the fragmented Lebanon, the once star and head of the so-called the 14th of March alliance that included a huge range of Lebanese power brokers including Christian Maronite and Druze leaders, with the failure of the Syrian venture that coalition was decimated and even its Sunni component was fractured as some Sunni leaders challenged the leadership and prowess of Hariri.

To that effect, even General Ashraf Rifi declared mutiny. Rifi is the former Lebanese Police Chief. He was the power broker in the northern city of Tripoli and Hariri’s right arm in arming and supporting the Sunni militia in the locality of Baba El-Tabbaneh against the little and besieged Alawite enclave of Jabal Mohsen. Rifi blamed Hariri for the failure of the military venture within Tripoli and accused Hariri of weakness and declared his mutiny and formed his own power base; supported and financed by Saudi Arabia.

As a Sunni himself, Rifi did not only challenge Hariri in Tripoli and won the municipal council’s elections by a strong margin, but has also challenged the overall political status of Hariri about who is more worthy of holding the title of the Lebanese Sunni leader. For this reason, Rifi tried hard to create an image of himself as that of the tough man who will deal with difficulty and win; unlike his political opponent Hariri, that he tried to portray as a wimp.

The Saudi-Hariri impasse was only strengthened by the Lebanese presidential elections. Saudi Arabia was adamant to block the election of Michel Aoun; a staunch supporter of Hezbollah, and as his election was becoming more imminent, in an act of dismay, Saudi Arabia recalled its ambassador in Lebanon. To add insult to injury, Hariri had to engage in a deal with the new president, his former foe, and be his prime minister. At that point, one could argue that the Saudi-Hariri relationship was totally and irrevocably severed.

As a matter of fact, when Hariri was given the appointment as prime minister almost exactly a year ago, he had already lost not only his strong and powerful Saudi allies, but also his fortune and many of his Lebanese power brokers and street support. He had very little clout left, and in a country like Lebanon, leaders with no clout don’t get a bite of the cherry let alone the whole pie. His appointment however was meant to be akin to national reconciliation.

This brief summary brings us back to the present.

So what made Hariri go to Riyadh and announce his resignation, as the prime minister of Lebanon, from the capital of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh?

Clearly, both Hariri and MBS are looking for a resurrection.

Ironically, a few hours after Hariri’s freak resignation, a Burkan H-2 Yemeni missile has reportedly hit Riyadh airport, and it seems that another one was intercepted around the outskirts of the capital. The fire that MBS started and stoked in Yemen is now capable of hitting his capital, and he has much at stake to fight for and he is desperate for all forms of Saudi resurrection; and this is why, among other things, he is pushing for reform.

But instead of MBS focusing only on his home front, ailing economy and finding a way to end the war on Yemen, he continues to enter into new and expensive ventures, and he seems determined to restore the destructive role of Saudi Arabia in Lebanon.

High on MBS’s agenda is to look for every possible way and opportunity to lash back at Iran and Hezbollah; the major allies of his Yemeni Houthi foes. He is being pragmatic, putting former differences between himself and Hariri aside, to re-establish the Saudi role in Lebanon and to re-instate its position as a major power broker in Lebanon.

On his part, Hariri would have loved to see the rapprochement happen a year ago or so, and before his Oger went belly up, a rapprochement that would have saved it, but nevertheless, Hariri will take pennies even though he would wish for nuggets. MBS has reduced him to the position of a beggar, and beggars cannot be choosers.

For someone who is already the prime minister of a country, what incentive does he need to be given to quit and what bigger fish does he have to fry by quitting the top job? These are questions that cannot be answered unless one knows how the unique politics of Lebanon work.

In Lebanon, a political leader does not have to be technically in power (ie in parliament or cabinet) to be effectively in power. Hariri seems more interested in restoring the grass-root support that he lost. That said, he originally bought this support base, yes with money and gifts, and as his fortune dwindled, so did his support base. Being a “wimp” as his Rifi rival refers to him, was not alone the reason for the slump of his popularity.

Speaking of Rifi again, it is possible, in fact highly likely, that a part of the new MBS-Hariri deal is that Saudi Arabia pulls the rug from underneath Rifi’s feet. After all, Saudi Arabia may not see in Rifi the rightful Lebanese partner. He is to some degree an independent thinker, not just a follower of orders, and he is in his mid-sixties. He will soon run out of momentum. The much younger Hariri puppet has perhaps resurrected his position with the Saudi royals in the hope of restoring his street support in Lebanon. As for his lost wealth, we will not know what the details of the new deal are, but money will be a huge lubricant.

Whatever the details of the newly-founded Saudi-Hariri alliance are, they do not have much chance of success. The battle was lost in Syria, and for Hariri to be able to pick up the pieces and reverse the situation from within Lebanon, he does not have much chance of success; especially that Hezbollah now is stronger than ever, both militarily and politically. Only an Israeli military gamble in Lebanon can potentially change the balance in favour of Hariri and Saudi Arabia. Having said that, any such gamble will most likely backfire, just like previous gambles. If Israel and Hezbollah have another showdown, and this is probably a question of when not if, the timing and location may not be of Israel’s choosing.

MBS and Hariri are more likely to achieve nothing at all with their new alliance. Apart from getting media coverage and analysis reports like this one, the most they can affectively achieve is more street riots and acts of sabotage. This time, the Lebanese security forces and Hezbollah will be on full alert and preparedness to deal with them, after all, with the “War on Syria” coming to its end and the Syrian-Lebanese borders secured already, Lebanon and Hezbollah do not need to watch their back.

https://tonyseed.wordpress.com/2017/11/10/lebanon-the-fall-and-the-fall-of-hariri/