THe COLD WAR OVER SYRIA...WILL REMAIN COLD By Sami Koleib Assafir Lebanese Daily 15 February 2016. Translated by G and I Kadi

Introduction by Ghassan Kadi

This is an article that has been translated from Arabic by Intibah and me. It was published on today's Assafir (Lebanese daily) by Sami Koleib. He is a renowned pro-Resistance Lebanese journliast. He has made great analyses over the last few years and Intibah and I had the pleasure of translating some of his work.

In this article, he is articulating his views about the outcome of the huffing and puffing of Turkey and Saudi Arabia in regard to their threats of launching ground military operations in Syria. A highly recommended read. 

The translation was published in other media outlets

“The Cold War” Over Syria…Will Remain Cold

By Sami Koleib

Assafir Lebanese Daily, 15 February 2016
Translated by Ghassan and Intibah Kadi

For the Russia Prime Minister, Dimitry Medvedev to say that the world is entering a cold war, he is declaring the status quo..and confirming what’s already confirmed. But to say it from Munich, this is the same place from which President Vladimir Putin began to stand up against Washington in his famous speech nearly eight years ago. And, for Medvedev to mention the Russian Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 to stop an American invasion, is only a reminder of the new red lines for any land invasion perpetrated by the enemies of the Syrian President Bashar Al Assad in Syria’s north, and specifically to any Saudi-Turkish gamble with a NATO cover.  The cold war is realistically under way, what’s new in it this time is that it is the Syrian scorched ground that decides its destiny..and it seems that various contacts made in the last few hours have focussed on putting the situation under control and prioritising on fighting terrorism.

What’s worthy of noticing in what Medvedev has said, and he is the one who alternates Presidency and Prime Ministership with Putin since the duo decided to return Russia to the world centre stage, that there is no end to this cold war except through American-Russian agreement.. as for the others, they are simply pawns. Most probably, reason will prevail in as far as the American-Russian relationships are concerned, otherwise the cold war will heat up.  Contrary to all posturing, threats made, Putin and Obama continued to communicate, two days ago, just like John Kennedy and Nikita Kruschev did back in 1962.  According to reliable European sources, the Russian President asked his American counterpart to “harness” Turkey so it would stop its bombardment of Kurds and Syrian military targets, and also, to downscale the Saudi rhetoric about direct military involvement in Syria. The wording of Putin carried a clear warning to both countries if Washington did not make a move along these lines.

We should also note that the White House took the initiative to contact Moscow and made a statement saying that President Putin renewed his assertion to form a united front against terrorism..and that the defense ministers of both countries will intensify their coordination..the rest are just pawns! Barack Obama has no interest at all to bestow upon his successor a new war just before he leaves office and, after all, he is the one who forged an agreement with “the apex of the axis of evil”, Iran, and made peace with the “outlaw state”, Cuba, in his own neighbourhood.  Putin also does not have any interest to create economic burdens that a new arms race will inflict. 

So why is Medvedev making his warning?

The current problem of the United States is not with its adversaries, it is with its allies.  Saudi Arabia and Israel have been feeling marginalised ever since the nuclear deal. They both see the West marketing a new Iran.  Turkey, on the other hand, sees that America is bolstering its alliance with the Kurds and now has become prepared to accept that Bashar Al Assad remains in power..and his recapture of northern Syria.  It is an aberration for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the President of a NATO member State, to say to America, the leader of NATO, that their policies have turned the region into a pool of blood.

Have regional powers become able to declare mutiny on America and drag it into war?

Of course not, they can not revolt, but they are capable of kindling many fires unless Washington smacks them into obedience..and this is exactly what it is going to do.

According to some sources, American and European discussions have been intensified with all relevant regional parties.  This is essential, especially that Tehran has offered two responses: the first of which is a warning saying that the response will be very harsh and may hit the heart of Saudi Arabia, and that the Saudi forces will suffer a huge defeat if it gets involved, and the second one is by extending the hand of friendship to Riyadh via the words of Foreign Minister Muhammad Jawwad Zarif, the star of Western media since the nuclear accord.  Zarif said, “by cooperating with our brothers in Saudi Arabia and Turkey, we can resolve all regional problems and issues”.

Similar words were echoed by the Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Jubair in saying: “we are pleased to have good relationships with Iran, but they have to take serious steps and stop intervening in our affairs”, and as usual repeating his mantra that Assad will fall politically or militarily in the end. The pertinent point here is that the further north the Syrian Army moves, Saudi Arabia needs to repeat this mantra more often for domestic and regional reasons as well.

The statement that Syrian Foreign Minister, Walid Mouallem, made about the returning home of Saudis in coffins, is probably backed by joint Russian-Iranian determination to confront any foreign interference that has not been approved by both the Americans and the Russians under the clear mandate of fighting terrorism only.

Is it possible to slip into a wider war?

So far this seems unlikely, but however, some reliable sources argue that Saudi Arabia has made some plans for direct military action in Syria for a long time. Those plans were made before the big advances that the Syrian Army and its allies made in the north, but it had always felt that what the militants were doing was enough and that there was no need for that.  However, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are currently under great pressure and they are both looking for a role. What they seek is not essentially going into a war that Riyadh knows beforehand how much it is going to cost, what is sought however is to maintain a Saudi-Turkish role in what is planned for the future of Syria.

We should notice something very important: neither Turkey nor Saudi Arabia have thus far declared that they are embarking on their military intervention without a cover. They are both saying that this is all within an international plan to fight Daesh. For example, we see the Turkish Foreign Minister, Mouloud Jawish Oglu  declaring that, “if there’s an anti-Daesh strategy then it becomes possible for Turkey and Saudi Arabia to launch a land operation”… The “if” the Jawish Oglu statement begins with is very pertinent.   In a similar manner Adel Jubair told CNN that, “Saudi Arabia is prepared to send special forces to join the coalition in a land operation in Syria”, in other words, taking part in a coalition under the auspices and direction of the United States.

The possible escalation is towards a wider war but not towards an all out war.

This is possible if one of these things happen:
- if Saudi Arabia and Turkey get involved directly on the ground or in the air without an international cover.

-Putin made a clear warning two days ago, and Obama is quite unhappy about the Turkish bombardment of his Kurdish allies. Several American and European messages have been sent to Ankara in this regard.

-If Turkey shoots down Russian or Syrian planes over Syrian soil. But it seems that it would not dare do this any more.

-In the event of military confrontation between Israel and Iran, in either Syria or Lebanon, directly or via Hezbollah.

-If some intelligence apparatus commits a major assassination or a major explosion of significance.

What do Turkey and Saudi Arabia want?

Turkey and Saudi Arabia want for either the Syrian Army and its allies to stop moving north, and this has become impossible for them to achieve, or for them to get a role in future plans, as they both consider that the current period is very fortuitous for them to put pressure on American Democrats just before Presidential elections.  They will also accept to have forces in the “international coalition”, and this is what Assad has refused in his last interview in which he said that the war in the north aims for, “cutting the link between Turkey and Aleppo”… We can only imagine Erdogan’s face when he reads this statement, and as he is fighting an internal war with Kurds, and feels that things are falling out of his hands.

What will the allies of Assad do?

-Putin will continue to give the West both biscuits and tranquilizer pills, as his fighter jets are delivering fire on the enemies of Assad. He will continue doing this irrespective of what happens, for he and Assad are both saying that the current peace negotiations have nothing to do with fighting terrorism.

-Iran will intensify its direct involvement or indirectly via Hezbollah in the Syrian war, all the while making sugar-coated statements to the Saudis, knowing beforehand, that this will upset the Saudis more than calm them, such statements however make Iran look good in the eyes of the West and serve as a good cover up for military action.

With this complex regional and international Syrian scene, the main questions are the following: what is the true American position towards Assad?, how far did the American-Iranian agreement reach?, what is the level of American-Russian agreement about Syria?

It seems that [Druze Lebanese political leader] Walid Jumblatt has got the hint.  He said that the world will give Aleppo back to Assad in the name of peace.  Undoubtedly he would have wished that hint wasn’t there and that he didn’t pick it up. The time of trying to topple Assad is gone. Fighting terrorism takes precedence.  Future terrorism is going to be bigger and stronger. French Prime Minister, Manuel Valls said it very clearly in Munich when he stated that the Syrian Army is its most important opponent. There is little doubt that it enjoys tacit American support to move north. Obama will not allow anyone to drag him into a wider war before he leaves the White House.
http://assafir.com/Article/474225

Other outlets that published this translation

https://uprootedpalestinians.blogspot.com/2016/02/the-cold-war-over-syriawill-remain-cold.html



https://katehon.com/article/cold-war-over-syriawill-remain-cold

TURKEY AND SAUDI ARABIA; TO FIGHT OR TO FLIGHT by Ghassan Kadi 14 February 2106

TURKEY AND SAUDI ARABIA : TO FIGHT OR TO FLIGHT By Ghassan Kadi
14 February 2016

Article also makes reference to Sharmine Narwani, The Saker, Andrew Korybko's analyses.

http://thesaker.is/turkey-and-saudi-arabia-to-fight-or-to-flight/

Turkey and Saudi Arabia: to fight or to flight?

31321 ViewsFebruary 14, 2016 56 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

No one knows how the “War On Syria” is going to end, let alone what turns it will take in a year from now, a month, and even a week. There are many variables, new developments, twists and turns, and they happen quickly, and sometimes unexpectedly. And because we do not really what is going on behind the scenes in the corridors of Washington, Ankara and Riyadh, we cannot say from a position of knowledge that the trio are indeed conjuring for a land invasion of Syria. To make any plausible interpretations and predictions therefore, we can only base them on the revealed information, albeit it is perhaps mainly designed to feed the news-hungry media and their news-thirsty consumers. The analyses that we can produce cannot be based on more than this information.

This is an uneasy task because to confound the situation further, the recent information is not only incomplete, but in itself it is confounding and contradictory. We are seeing adversaries making statements that portray accord, whilst on the other hand, we see allies, or at least supposed allies, lashing at each other, and for different reasons, and unless we use common sense, we won’t make any sense of this at all; it only adds to the confusion.

To this effect, and to begin unraveling the information segment by segment, we must stop at a recent statement that Erdogan made. What he said to his American “allies” recently was not very different from saying “you are either with us or with our enemies” (ie the Kurds). Yet, Erdogan and the USA are meant to be allies and co-NATO members.

To say that Erdogan is unhappy to see northern Syria going back under Syrian control bit by bit, is a gross understatement. For nearly five years, he has flooded the region with tens of thousands of militants, supplies, munitions, and this is not to mention all the looting that was done to Aleppo’s industrial infra-structure. And now, almost in a blink, he can see this slipping out of his hands, all the while the USA is watching and incapable of or unwilling to do anything, or perhaps both. Erdogan has been very vocal in criticizing the USA and questioning its loyalty to him. He is furious to the extreme.

A few days before making his statement, Russia stated that Turkey is preparing for a ground attack in Syria, a claim denied by Turkey. Both of the Russian claim and its Turkish denial received little attention by American officials. Now, this is the America that makes it its business to poke its nose into the tiniest incidents and considers building a chicken pen in Peru a matter of national security. Why would America not comment about a serious matter such as the above; unless it is clearly saying to observers that it chooses not to comment because if Turkey launches a ground attack on Syria, then this is not America’s business!

But if we go back a few weeks further to the extra-ordinary NATO meeting that Erdogan asked for immediately after the downing of the Su-24, the resolution was for Turkey and Russia to work out their differences. NATO did not want a bar of it.

Erdogan is possibly the most dangerous man on earth at the moment. If not the most dangerous, he is definitely in the top ten list. If anything, he is a mega megalomaniac. He regards himself as a supreme being who was God-sent in order to restore the former glories of both Islam and the Ottoman Empire. He sees everyone else as inferior to him, and when he goes to confer with his allies, including Obama, in his mind, he is using them and not taking orders from them. Any observer and critic of Erdogan who is unaware of this fact is missing a very important reality, and probably the most pertinent link in the chain of this very complex and perverted personality.

In a recent article, Andrew Korybko brilliantly outlaid Russia’s options vis-à-vis a Turkish land attack on Syria (1). There are many options indeed, and in such an event, Andrew predicted that Russia will not engage in an all-out war with Turkey and may even allow Erdogan to vent a bit of steam provided that he does not go too far.

This seems to be happening now, or at least to some degree. Recent news is reporting Turkish shelling of Kurds in Northern Syria. Another report that followed later said that even Syrian Army positions have been targeted by Turkey.

There are even some unconfirmed news reports of Washington asking Ankara to stop its shelling of Kurdish and Syrian Army positions.

Obama made it very clear that he does not intend to have direct confrontation with Russia in Syria (2). On the other hand. Russia is warning against such intervention. Those warnings, do not only apply to Turkey, but also to Saudi Arabia no doubt.

In his latest article (3), The Saker predicts that “in the next few days, we are probably going to witness a dramatic escalation of the conflict in Syria”. This is possible, and even probable, but to what extent shall we see this escalation?

Then we look south of Ankara, at Riyadh to be specific. The Saudis are very restless and upset by the American inaction ever since the “War On Syria” started. They have been literally begging the USA and NATO for direct intervention, but to no avail. Now here’s the question, if America did not want to intervene directly in Syria before Russia entered the scene, why would they do it now risking a direct confrontation with Russia?

It is not uncommon for politicians to lie and to make deceptive remarks. It is very possible that America is trying to appear to look as if it is seeking peaceful outcomes whilst behind the scenes pushing its Turkish cronies into war.

Allies however, do not slander each other, not in public, not unless they are having a serious crisis. And allies do not plan to go into wars together if they are having a crisis. If we join the dots, the likelihood of direct American/NATO intervention in Syria looks very remote. They will most probably provide a tacit support for a joint Saudi-Turkish intervention, but NATO is highly unlikely to get involved directly in the conflict.

Furthermore, and this has been said many times by many analysts, Saudi Arabia is already bogged down in a war against the ill-equipped ill-funded Yemeni Army and remains unable to score a victory after many months of heavy bombardment. This is needless to say that the Saudi economy is in tatters. The Saudis are already using mercenaries from different countries such as Sudan, Pakistan and even Yemen itself in Yemen. They have also hired mercenaries from what is commonly known as Blackwater. The prospect of Saudis sending troops to Syria to fight and win is as farcical as them trying to put the first camel on the moon.

The Turks and the Saudis are extremely frustrated that their war efforts in Syria have been turned upside down. Foreign Minister Jubair is still preconditioning the “removal” of President Assad for any peace deal to be endorsed. No one is regurgitating his rhetoric with any sympathy, and his kingdom and Turkey must have reached the stage of thinking that if the tens of thousands of militants could not do the job, if America and NATO won’t step in, then we shall pull our sleeves up and do it.

For many decades, Saudi Arabia had been the perfect model that America seeks in places like the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has been stable and compliant. This is what America seeks as an ultimate objective; a compliance-based stability. When compliance cannot be achieved, creating instability becomes contingency plan B.

However, the tides of Saudi Arabia are turning, or will soon be turning. Saudi compliance is beginning to wane. The Saudis are very unhappy to see the Iranian nuclear deal with the USA coming to fruition. They are vocalizing their grievances and this spells danger for the Americans because it reeks with the smell of compliance-under-threat.

The same can be said about Erdogan with respect to his recent attacks on American foreign policies. And when compliance weakens, America puts contingency plans into action. This is the scenario when the American bully steps in and creates instability, but Turkey is not Saudi Arabia. If America now suddenly tries to pull the rug from underneath Erdogan’s feet, he will become the sacrificial lamb; not Turkey. But in the case of Saudi Arabia, and unless the royal family sacrifices the king and his arrogant son Prince Mohamed Bin Salman, then the whole royal family may be sacrificed.

In a not so recent article (4), Sharmine Narwani articulates why America is losing interest and ability to engage in more action in the Middle East, and again, I stand to be corrected, but the way I see it, America will not step in in defense of either Erdogan or Saudi Arabia in any invasion they plan for Syria. They may give them moral support, diplomatic support, and even arm supplies, but they will not engage militarily and will cut them loose.

This in itself puts the onus of winning on Saudi Arabia and Turkey. In this event, they will have two options; either send troops inside Syria, or just use her air space to launch limited aerial attacks and borders for some artillery attacks.

With the Syrian-Turkish borders now mostly in the hands of the Kurds and Syrian Army, ground troops will have little chance, and with the S-400 deployed, aerial attacks will not be a walk in the park.

The options of Saudi Arabia and Turkey are to pull back, engage in very limited skirmishes to save face, or expand the conflict and face grave consequences.

1.http://sputniknews.com/columnists/20160206/1034335764/saudi-arabia-turkey-syria-invasion.html

2.https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/2015/10/02/44c1f7fc-6932-11e5-9223-70cb36460919_story.html

3.http://thesaker.is/week-eighteen-of-the-russian-intervention-in-syria-a-dramatic-escalation-appears-imminent/

4.http://mideastshuffle.com/2015/08/11/iran-nuclear-deal-why-empire-blinked-first/

COMING TO A HEAD IN SYRIA by Ghassan Kadi 5 February 2016

http://thesaker.is/coming-to-a-head-in-syria/

Coming to a head in Syria

41052 ViewsFebruary 05, 2016 47 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

What started as a “War On Syria”, allowed to grow and fester unabated, fueled and sponsored by eighty three nations spearheaded by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Israel and NATO and all pro-NATO nations, is undoubtedly coming to a head.

Geneva III seems dead in the water, just like Geneva I and II were. This time however, Syria and its allies are calling the shots, and they are playing the cat-and-mouse game, and why not? After all, the ball is in their court and it wasn’t easy coming. It’s the spoil of blood and sacrifice.

That said, whichever way one looks at what I call the “War On Syria” or truly believe it is a revolution and choose to call it the “Syrian Revolution” or any other name for that matter, recent events are indicating a coming to head; one way or the other.

The time of stalemates has long gone. If anything, the stalemates were the result of a series of stagnant conditions on the battlefield which didn’t allow for victors or losers to emerge except in certain specific areas, but as the Syrian Army is now making sweeping advances in many territories and on many fronts under the aerial support of Russia, the stalemate is no longer.

Any whichever way one looks at the recent developments in Syria, favourably, unfavourably, or indifferently, one has to be able to see that there are some serious changes on the horizon. Those changes will eventually culminate into new directions and the coming to head of an outcome cannot be too far away.

Some of the head figures that were involved in the original orchestration of the “War On Syria” have already faced their own coming to head and came down crashing. Saudi Prince Bandar Bin Sultan was perhaps the most infamous “victim”. Few conspirers throughout history have fallen on their own swords in a more humiliating manner than the way he was demoted from a potential crown prince and king to a virtual nobody.

The outcome that has thus far been achieved by the collaboration of the aerial Russian might with the Syrian Army on the ground is tightening the noose on Erdogan and giving him a few bitter options. The Saudis are not in a much better situation, but Saudi Arabia does not have common borders with Syria and Saudi Arabia does not have Kurds.

Now that Erdogan has finally shown his true colours to the Kurds and spewed his hatred upon them in Syria, Iraq and within Turkey itself, he can no longer rewind the clock and restore his pre-“War On Syria” diplomacy status with them.

Erdogan must be shuffling his cards, contemplating different options and weighing out their risks. Without reaching some agreement with Russia, he cannot save face. But his window for diplomacy with Russia has been deadlocked and Russia will not sit at a negotiating table with him, not after he shot down the Su-24 and had his thugs kill the pilot as he parachuted. Realistically, he cannot emerge with any win, modest and insignificant as it might be, without some military action. But as his biggest military gamble in Syria was beginning to fail even before Russia intervened, what hope of military gain does he have now with Russia on Syrian soil and in her skies?

But if he sits back and allows Syria to win, among other things, he will be accepting to face serious and grave domestic repercussions. As a matter of fact, those repercussions have already started, and a quick look at Diyarbakir and its surrounds says it all.

The only other option Erdogan has is to have a military showdown with Russia, but to do this, he needs help.

The Saudis have expressed willingness to send troops into Syria to fight alongside the USA against Daesh (ISIS), wink wink. We all know what this means. This is their way of saying that they intend to use Turkey as a route and work alongside Turkish troops in attacking Syria. Ironically however, Saudi Arabia, that has a military budget higher than that of Russia, has not yet been even able to score a military win in Yemen, and probably never will. The recent announcement about sending troops into Syria sounds like a practical joke. That said, Erdogan does not need the Saudi Army. The Turkish Army has enough muscle power of its own, but not anywhere near strong enough to engage with Russia, and any Saudi involvement will probably be tokenistic. Furthermore, the Saudis might have been keen to fight against Syria, but they will not engage in battle against Russia.

Turkey will never be able to have a war with Russia unaided, but all indications are that it is picking on a fight with the Big Bear in the hope the NATO will support it. The ally Erdogan is counting on is NATO not Saudi Arabia, and this is not such a great revelation. Erdogan has been playing the NATO card long before the downing of the Su-24 last November.

If Turkey ever needed to be a NATO member, the reason was always Russia. The animosity between the two nations is centuries old and the dispute was not only over territory, but also religious. After all. The Ottomans have invaded the entire region of Orthodoxy, decimated the Byzantine Empire, and only Russia was able to spare herself from their iron fist rule.” But as fate took a turn and the Ottoman Empire was no longer and Russia herself became a superpower, when NATO was founded in 1949, Turkey had no reason at all to join it other than fear of the USSR.

For five years now, the enemies of Syria have been pushing their luck trying to engage the USA and NATO directly in fighting the Syrian Army but to no avail. The so-called East Ghouta chemical attack massacre was framed on the Syrian Army in a desperate attempt to get a UNSC resolution akin to the one made against the government of Libya a couple of years earlier, but this time Russia vetoed the decision.

But Erdogan never gave up trying to engage Uncle Sam. When he ordered his troops to down the Su-24, it was clear that this was yet another attempt to drag NATO into an intervention that it does not need and a UNSC resolution, but his plea seemed to have gone to deaf ears. The extra-ordinary NATO meeting that Erdogan immediately requested following the incident, clearly stated that Turkey and Russia should work together to settle their problems. That was NATO’s clear message to Turkey to leave NATO out of it.

But Turkey did not stop its attempts to pick on a fight with Russia. A few days ago, unoccupied Syrian towns close to Turkish borders were bombed as Turkey was apparently providing a cover for retreating Jihadists. As a matter of fact, the news today is reporting Russian awareness of a Turkish preparation for sending troops into Syria. Russia is warning, and Erdogan is definitely stirring the pot unabated.

With or without NATO’s support, it takes a madman to aim for war with Russia, but Erdogan is now as mad as a cornered rabid dog. All of his actions, ever since the downing of the Su-24 are indicative of getting into a military confrontation with Russia. This is what he is aiming for. A war of this nature has the potential to develop into a global war and a multitude of regional wars that will not only include the super powers, but also regional powers. Millions of lives can be lost, and no human in his/her right mind would wish it to happen. But how can one put a harness on a madman and stop him in his tracks?

Erdogan is taking an enormous and dangerous gamble here, not only in deliberately trying to engage with a superpower, but also in hoping that NATO will come to its supposed end of the bargain.

If a limited conflict develops between Turkey and Russia, NATO will probably weigh in, but the question is this, if a full scale war does break out between Russia and Turkey, will NATO enter the theater to protect Erdogan’s hide? No one knows, but a quick guess says unlikely.

Cynics and critics might say that NATO, and the USA in particular, will never let go of their regional interests in Turkey. This is true, but defending Erdogan and defending Turkey are two different things.

If faced between having to cut Erdogan loose to face his destiny or engaging in an all-out war with Russia, the USA and NATO might choose the former and sacrifice Erdogan personally. In fact, this would be a perfect scenario for a colour revolution, and what stops America from orchestrating one in Turkey? After all, they are the experts of turning against their allies.

A good look at the map of northern Syria and the recent advances of the Syrian Army clearly indicates that the western region of that border will soon be back into the hands of the Syrian Army, and soon could mean a few weeks. In a few weeks, if not probably less, the city of Aleppo will go back to the custody of the state and government of Syria. This will constitute a huge blow to Erdogan. Considering that the Turkish-Syrian border in the Hatay region is quite mountainous and difficult to penetrate militarily, once it goes back to Syrian hands, it will be virtually impossible for Turkey to take that it back. The eastern side of the border however is quite flat and any advancing troops will be sitting ducks for aerial attacks.

The other risk factor for Erdogan stems from the fact that during an election year, America is highly unlikely to commit itself to a new war, any new war, let alone a major war with Russia.

The fall of Erdogan on his head is bound to happen one way or the other, and the huge popularity he gained after reforming the economy is getting eroded gradually, and even though he won the last round of elections, if Turkey faces more domestic strife and gets dragged by its leader into a major war, not only the economic reforms will fall by the wayside and push turkey back to the economic abyss, but this will open the political doors to all possibilities, with or without a colour revolution.

As the clock is ticking however, and as forces loyal to Erdogan within Syria lose more territory and nerve, Erdogan’s need to gamble becomes more dire, and he finds himself pushed more and more into a corner, forced to play roulette, the Russian style.

TURKEY'S GATES TO EUROPE by Ghassan Kadi 5 February 2016

http://thesaker.is/turkeys-gates-to-europe/

Turkey’s Gates To Europe

35202 ViewsFebruary 05, 2016 84 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

The story of refugees flocking into Europe, and the avalanche of repercussions that followed, remains to be a conundrum that many involved individuals, including some seasoned analysts, are at pains to unravel.

Any denial that those refugees had brought with them very bad elements is a denial of a truth that is so loud and clear. And when some highly competent authors wrote about this and were attacked and called Fascists and racists, those who made those accusations must be living in a dungeon that lives by rules that do not exist anywhere on this planet. Not that I wish any harm to anyone, but I would just wonder what would those critics do or say if it was their own sisters, girlfriends, daughters and mothers getting ganged raped in the streets!

Many theories have been put forward to explain what is really happening in Europe, but with all due respect to many authors whom I greatly respect and admire, I find that none of those theories add up in a manner that is convincing and complete.

Apart from politics and political analysis, the influx of refugees was either a natural consequence of many wars and economic difficulties that have adversely affected millions of people, or it was something that has been orchestrated by an invisible plotter.

The former possibility seems remote because even though the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya have indeed disadvantaged millions of people, one would expect a steady trickle of refugees, not a sudden human tsunami.

This points towards the direction of having an invisible hand behind this, but whose hand is it?

Unless theories that attempt to explain what is happening are able to connect the dots in a manner that explains what made all of those refugees move in such huge numbers all at the same time, who is the plotter behind this, and what benefits the plotter gets out of it, then that theory is incomplete and therefore inaccurate. This of course excludes that other possibility and that is case of a plot-gone-wrong. Of course such a possibility cannot be zeroed out, but once again we are back to square one; who was the original plotter and how did his plot fail?

Many are quick to accuse the USA and the CIA for anything that goes wrong at any time and everywhere. I am the last person to defend “The Empire”, but we should not be blinded to facts and rationality. I can see how the USA can benefit from partially destabilizing Europe in order to keep it under the American yoke of submission especially in regard to the anti-Russian stand. But I cannot see how the USA can benefit from the influx of thousands, and possibly tens of thousands, of Jihadists infiltrating into Europe and threatening its peace and wellbeing! Any such accusations are totally absurd and do not make any sense at all.

Then there are those accusing Merkel, and she is not a saint to be defended either. However, for Merkel to welcome in migrants knowing that Jihadists were hiding within them is not something that anyone would expect a German leader to do no matter how corrupt or stupid he/she is. With all of her downfalls, Angela Merkel would not deliberately welcome in Jihadists. Let us be rational.

Other theories have accused George Soros, Nuland, NATO, and even the EU itself. But in all of those instances, the pieces of the puzzle do not fit in a manner that shows a clear beneficiary in all of this. So is this a plot that has gone wrong? Perhaps not, or at least not yet.

Thus far, the only beneficiaries out of this whole kerfuffle are the European ultra-right wing parties, and we haven’t seen anything yet. European elections in the next few years will clearly see a huge surge in their support, and this will only be a normal reaction to the trauma that Europe is now suffering from and the fear and xenophobia it is creating. That said, we cannot in our wildest of imagination think that it was the far right in Europe that has plotted, orchestrated and executed this whole ordeal.

This really leaves us with Turkey, or should we say Erdogan.

Perhaps we will never know what is really happening in Europe, but an analysis of all of the events surely and clearly points at one and only one potential plotter and beneficiary, and this is none other than Erdogan.

To understand this, we must rewind the clock here and go back to the early days of the Ottoman Empire.

After the Ottomans established their rule in Asia Minor (Anatolia), their next step was to control the Bosphorus and to put a foot on European soil. This eventuated in 1453 with the fall of Constantinople (renamed Istanbul). This was followed by the capture of the Balkans and most of Eastern Europe. The Ottomans wanted to avenge Europe for the Crusader era in a big sweeping manner and move into Europe and declare the whole of Europe an Ottoman territory.

On the Southern front, it was rather easy for the Ottomans to move to conquer Syria and Mesopotamia. The Arab/Muslim World was at the beginning of its nadir that it hasn’t yet pulled out of, and the ill-organized Levantine troops could not face the well-organized Ottoman invaders and the battle of Marj Dabek in 1516 was decisively won by the invading Turks. Soon after, the Ottomans took control of Mecca, the trophy of all Muslim conquerors, given that whoever is in control of Mecca becomes inadvertently in control of Islam and Muslims.

Not too many years later, in 1529 to be exact, the Ottomans made their first attempt to capture Vienna. The second attempt was made in 1683, and both attempts failed. Land topography was paramount those days when troops were powered by horses and mules, and the location of Vienna would have created a passage for Ottoman troops to easily move into the rest of Western Europe, but this was not to happen.

Back to the present.

What many observers fail to see and remember is that Erdogan is both an Islamist and a nationalist, but first and foremost an Islamist. That said, Islamism and Nationalism in Turkey take a peculiar twist; they come hand-in-gloves. To Turkish Islamists, the Ottoman Empire provided the perfect model; a vast Muslim empire headed by Turkey.

Ideally for them, this empire should be restored and expanded as much as possible breaking old barriers that the Ottoman predecessors were unable to surpass.

The pain of the humiliating defeat virtually at the gates of Vienna in 1683 is still alive in the hearts and minds of Islamist-Nationalist-Turkish zealots, and no one embodies those passions more than his “eminence” himself; President Erdogan.

So leaving Syria behind for a moment, Erdogan feels he has a score to settle with the Christian infidel Europe.

Plan A for Erdogan was to keep the refugees in Turkey, dislocate Syrian Kurds from northern Syria, and then relocate the refugees in the newly-created Kurd-free buffer zone and thereby separating the rest of Syrian and Iraqi Kurds from Turkish Kurds and putting an end to their hopes of forming a state that can eventually encroach into Turkish territory.

His plot was refused by Turkey’s best allies; the USA, NATO and the EU. This left a very bad taste in Erdogan’s mouth, and with the EU having the soft underbelly in this triangle of allies that stabbed Erdogan in the back, it was revenge time for Erdogan; and the best revenge he could think of was to send those hundreds of thousands of Muslim refugees into Europe. After all, they became useless for him in light of the latest developments and especially after the Russian intervention.

In the EU itself, left-wingers and humanitarians, well-meaning as they may be, often live in total darkness of all sorts of wheeling and dealing that go on around them. They stood up and coerced their governments to welcome in refugees, and Erdogan knew they would, and he banked on this too.

On the other hand, Merkel might have been tempted by the idea of bringing in a massive cheap labour force that is badly needed for German manufacturing industries, and feeling supported by the calls of the home-grown humanitarians, she considered that a mandate strong enough to enable her to take daring steps.

If there was a plot-gone-wrong, it was that of Merkel and the EU in general. Their plot however was restricted to killing two birds with one stone; bringing in cheap labour, all the while cloaking themselves with the guise of caring for refugees. The EU plot could not have been to inundate Europe with Jihadi terrorists and rapists.

Only Syria and Russia understand Erdogan’s mind and what agendas he is hiding, and this is why they know where to hit him where it hurts the most, and right now, Syrian troops, supported by Russian air power, are moving on the ground and approaching Turkish borders in both of the Lattakia and Aleppo provinces.

The West on the other hand is, generally speaking, often short-sighted and even stupid. What adds to the short-sightedness and stupidity of its politicians is that section of humanitarians who are noisy and who do not know the difference between a true refugee in need and a rascals taking advantage of their lofty principles.

Thus far, it is all plot-gone-wrong for Erdogan in Syria, but his contingency plan B in Europe, if there is one indeed, is going pretty well. However, there is a big twist here. In the case of the “War On Syria” there were thousands of Syrians and their friends who knew exactly what the enemies of Syria were up to. They took upon themselves to stand up to tell the rest of the world the true untold story of Syria. Europeans and their supporters on the other hand seem to be none-the-wiser and totally unaware of the new Turkish plot. They have no idea at all that the Sultan is revamping old Islamist-Nationalist Turkish dreams. This spells grave danger.

It is possible that EU leaders are waking up, but we cannot be sure. The bribe funds given to Erdogan on the surface seem to have no justification at all. If anything, they look like rewarding bad behavior, but it is possible that those payments are made for Erdogan to stop further human flow , because he is the one in control of who leaves for Europe, when and how many.

Erdogan would not care if those Islamists flocking into Europe are pro-Saudi Wahhabists or whether they are under his control or not. As a matter of fact, he seems to have learnt from the mistake of Bandar Bin Sultan who was delusional enough to think that he could control what became ISIS. Erdogan simply wants to flood Europe with Muslims, radical Sunni Muslims of any persuasion.

I stand to be corrected, but I cannot see any other explanation of the truth of the sudden rush of Muslim refugees into Europe, who would or could plot such a rush, and who would benefit from it other than Erdogan.

To be fair to Erdogan, his dreams are not any better or worse than the dreams of an American hegemony, or any other national, racial, religious, sectarian empire-building dreams. It’s the sad story of human greed that can be blind and boundless. One would wonder if humanity would ever learn.

THE MULTI-FACETED AMERICAN BANKRUPTCY AND BEYOND by Ghassan Kadi 11 January 2016

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The Multi-Faceted American Bankruptcy and Beyond24965 ViewsJanuary 11, 2016 77 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

The financial collapse of the United States grows more inevitable, and more obviously so. Thus far during the Obama tenure alone, the formal and declared American debt has doubled, sky-rocketing from 10 trillion to 20 trillion dollars. Estimates of total American debt however, and which include unfunded liabilities, are much higher and range from 150 trillion to 350 trillion dollars. But even at twenty trillion, every American man, woman and child owes something in the vicinity of $60,000, and at the higher estimate, the per capita debt figure balloons to nearly $9 million.

Estimates of America’s total assets also vary from 300 to 550 trillion dollars. But as America has lost much of its manufacturing base as well as much of its resources, a big fraction of those assets are in real estate, bonds, shares and other commodities that are valued in accordance with general economic performance, and when the performance drops, they follow suit. Those estimates do not take this economic fact into account and even the low figure of 300 trillion could well and truly be over optimistic.

It is therefore rather difficult, if not impossible to know the actual totals of either American assets or liabilities. That said, if the liabilities figure is indeed in the vicinity of the high 350 trillion dollars figure and that of assets is in the vicinity of the low 300 trillion (if not less), then America could currently be well and truly literally insolvent.

The truth is that we don’t know, and perhaps we will never know, until a collapse spontaneously eventuates, or until the tsunami of the rising of new economic giants sweeps all what is in its way and make that collapse happen.

What is more sinister about the collapse of America is not only evident in its economic decline, but rather in the multitude of facets that seem to be all concurrently chewing away at the foundations of that nation that has led the world at many levels.

The fallout of an American collapse is not only going to be restricted to the United States itself. It will have global repercussions that will bring upon new challenges to the rising powers at more levels than just merely economical.

However, the economic collapse does not seem to be a haphazard phenomenon. It is the result of failures upon failures at a myriad of levels and aspects.

Throughout its history, the nation that developed in the “New world” and became eventually known as the United States of America has failed on three major counts.

The first historic failure was in America’s failure in accepting and recognising the human rights of indigenous Americans.

Native Americans, made to be known as Indians, were subjected to a systematic genocide that went on for four centuries. Four hundred years of massacres, displacements, broken promises, broken treaties, lies and deception that kept driving the “Indians” further and further West until they had no place to find refuge in.

To refer to this epic mass genocide as a violation of human rights would be a very gentle term to cover up a huge crime with. The systematic ethnic cleansing of indigenous Americans has probably been the most violent state-sponsored and longest in duration in the entire history of humanity. It dwarfs all other similar barbaric acts. But the American brutality did not stop there.

The second historic failure came about when the new and independent entity of the United States of America, a nation that was founded on a revolution that was meant to seek equality and justice for all, a revolution that was supposed to have inspired the French Revolution, a revolution that had the “Bill of Rights” to crown it as the first amendment of its constitution, has in fact allowed this so-called “Bill of Rights” to exclude the black man, endorsed his enslavement and the superiority of the white man over his freedom and destiny.

And even after Lincoln’s monumental thirteenth amendment, laws of segregation continued to rule the land until the 1960’s and the freedom of the black man was paid for by the blood of Dr. King and his brave and gallant comrades.

The third historic failure was in America’s inability to uphold Lincoln’s preamble-like statement about government that is “of the people, by the people, for the people”. Successive American governments from both sides of the political divide have proven to be anything but what Lincoln aspired for his nation. The word “people” was replaced by big business, the Israel lobby and the banks.

As a result now, ordinary Americans have little say as to who runs their government and what objectives they seek.

Historically-speaking therefore, and as the American forefathers were building the nation that was meant to represent the “New World” with a flavour of classlessness and freedom, underneath the thin façade, it was indeed built on racial and ethnic inequalities.

When Americans today lament the days of the forefathers, their highly-principled loftiness and achievements, they seem to conveniently ignore that any good that those forefathers stood for was exclusive to the white man.

Then they talk about the “American Dream”, one would ask, what defines this dream? In Hollywood-style, we see Superman defending “Truth, justice and the American Way”. Which “Truth” (with a Capital T), justice and American Way? One wonders if this “dream” of one actually means somebody else’s nightmare. Would one not?

With this question, we step out of history and into present time.

At both international and domestic levels, the so-called “American Dream” is no longer about its touted freedom and justice for Americans. It is no longer about an American Government that claims to conform to due diligence that has the welfare of its own people as the prime and sole objective, but rather one that has no aspirations other than world domination in a manner that keeps big business, the Israel lobby and banks where they belong; on top of the world dominion echelon.

However, decades and centuries of bullish politics have taken their toll on the minds of Americans, even on Americans who were once and continue to be victims of those doctrines. As a consequence, whilst the rise to prominence of African (Black) Americans heralded a hope that they would break out of the ranks of the enduring policies of the white man who enslaved their ancestors, that did not eventuate because they decided to let their comrades and ancestors down and join the white man’s club.

President Obama is not any less of a White-American-style policy zealot than his White House predecessors.

Before him, the rise of Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice to power was not associated with any shift in American foreign or domestic policies.

Slowly, but gradually and surely, the lie that was dubbed the “American Dream” had to fester, grow, and become seen for the lie that it is. This is not by rule of chance, because every lie has an expiry date, and the expiry date of the big “American Lie” is due.

The more the “American Lie” gets unmasked, the more it manifests itself and what has been putrefying within its core, and what its decays and ferments have produced over the decades and centuries.

Corporate white-collared mega bank robbers make Billy the Kid look like, just a kid. School shootings, eroded family values and many similar “new-age” realities are what underpin the state of despair that lead to such personal traumas that lead to problems such as obesity, suicide, drug abuse and depression.

American scholars including psychologists and sociologists are at a loss not knowing what has gone wrong with America and what is causing all the problems they witness. Whatever techniques they are employing to resolve the mystery, they are failing to see that America has lost spirit, and that the momentum of the lie that kept it going for as long as there was enough wealth to be spread around to mask it all is drying out. Now that this wealth has been dissipated and put in the hands of a few, the majority who were left behind have little left to aspire to. The dreams of a few have turned into a nightmare for the many more left behind.

The dream has fallen apart and builders and achievers have been pushed to stoop to the level of scavengers with each fighting for his/her own survival. Tens of millions desperately try to put food on the table whilst the big bankers and CEO’s hasten to get in on the loot before it is too late and there is nothing left to be looted.

No grandeur is left to make an American feel great about being American. Long gone are the times when everybody wanted to live in America. Long gone is the era when songs were written about wanting to live in America. The reality of what America is currently is only a culmination of what it had always been; an unrealistic promise of perfection and social justice that was founded on a series of hypocrisies.

The pretence of morality that America tried to base its foundations upon is showing its age and use by date, and there is little room left for patch-up jobs to hide behind.

Obama has inadvertently made such a sharp u-turn recently, rendering the legacy of Lincoln as something that is in total contradiction to his own. In a recent interview a few weeks ago, he circumvented the allegedly all-profound foundations of the nation-building forefathers to overtly, and rather shamelessly, say that “the measure of strength internationally is not simply by how many countries we’re occupying, of how many missiles we’re firing, but the strength of our diplomacy and the strength of our commitment to human rights…”. This is a far cry from Lincoln’s “of the people, by the people, for the people” slogan that put morality a priori.

The decadent status quo of America is such that its president now felt that he had to ascertain that greatness of a nation is not only measured by its stature as an international thug. If this is not a blatant admission of an erosion of morality and the very foundations of any nation that remotely tries to associate itself with righteousness, then one would wonder what stronger statements would reflect the current lack of proper moral stature of America!

Obama’s statement is an overt admission on behalf of America, by its president, that it has totally lost its moral ground and that there is no need left to pretend otherwise.

Obama’s statement is in principle not any different from that of a corrupt businessman saying that success in business is not only a measure of corporate theft and cheating. In essence, it is not any different from admitting that love is not only about lust. It is not any better than proclaiming that success is not only restricted to money and ego.

This is a blatant admission of moral bankruptcy of the worst kind.

Obama’s statement sums up America’s moral collapse; one that only good Americans can turn around and change and save what is left of America that can be saved. And speaking of good Americans, we must not forget that there are many of them, millions, but they have never been able to either effectively partake in their nation’s governance or were prevented from creating the necessary change. The time has never been more essential for them to unite and rise.

It is vital to examine the morality of all people, one’s own first and foremost, other individuals, groups and nations. But there is a much bigger moral onus on those who proclaim a leadership position. America has taken on board this claim, and therefore becomes accountable. Lack of morality in say Ecuador will perhaps impact only on Ecuador because Ecuador does not assume a global leading role, but when rot hits the alleged global leader nation, the consequences can be dire for the whole world.

Ironically, Jihadi Islamists are now assuming a leadership role and their moral collapse is akin to that of the USA even though at the surface they look very different. Political alliances or the lack of them between America and ISIL set aside, at a moral level, the two parties are pretty much on par.

This seems to be the age of disclosure and exposure, the era of coming out, an era in which no one is any longer able to hide what lurks within; both light and dark, good and bad.

It seems that the time of the big “American Dream” turned the big “American Lie” is coming to full exposure.

The rot of America and that of fundamentalist Islam are coming to a head. It does not seem that it is by accident that both dipoles are showing their ugly faces at the same time.

It would be unjust for anyone to see one of those dipoles in total independence of the other; the two are intertwined strategically, philosophically, and existentially.

America’s moral collapse, which in essence is not recent, is no longer one that can be hidden. It is the culmination of at least two centuries of what started as false pretences and ended up as blatant lies.

The moral collapse of ISIL is arguably more ancient in its roots, but as fate invariably dictates, evil always finds itself coming of age alongside a similar but yet very different evil.

The multi-faceted bankruptcy of America is bringing out to the open a multitude of hidden ghosts; both internal and external; but the common underlying factor to all is the moral collapse. When a nation loses its moral base it loses everything it holds near and dear.

With in-fighting within the Muslim World, none of which is truly addressing the core of the ISIL syndrome, a similar infighting is brewing within the West and particularly within the USA.

Europe will eventually have to take an independent stand; one that is not affected by the decision-making of the USA. If Europe does not break loose and take such a stand, it will have to suffer consequences.

The rest of the world, especially the rising powers, will have to make brave new decisions.

It was brave and honourable of Russia to step in to fight ISIL in Syria. It was a responsible decision to make in order to curb its spread. But the war against dogmatism does not stop at fighting militarily, neither does leading the world into a new era.

The multi-faceted bankruptcy of America, that was once leading the world, dictates that humanity needs new preambles that can lead it into new and better directions.

The BRICS nations have thus far produced humble economic benchmarks to give the brave new world a platform on which it may be able to fall back on in the case of a sudden American economic collapse. The platform is still in the making and the establishment of the China-based AIIB is one of the biggest steps in this direction. It will take some time before the BRICS nations can cushion the full impact of a Western economic collapse.

What is more pertinent however is for the world to have new moral and philosophical stewardship and direction. The onus of taking this task on board is now moving into the direction of the BRICS nations.

After all, if the corporate giants of the west are replaced by those of BRICS, and if the existing rot, corruption and injustices of the world wear a new mask and take new names, humanity would stagnate and the changes would mean nothing.

In times of change, opportunities rise, and with the geo-cultural change in global leadership, humanity now has an opportunity to aim for a better future. This is an opportunity that should not be missed.

Given that it is the collapse of morality that has culminated into the multi-faceted collapse of the USA, will the BRICS nations stand up to the task? Time will tell, and history will be very unforgiving if they don’t.

THE VOLGA FLOWS INTO BARADA by Ghassan Kadi 4 January 2016

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The Volga flows into Barada

19431 ViewsJanuary 04, 2016 20 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

Syria has never been a perfect place, and probably she never will be. Yet, those who truly love Syria, do not love her because they perceive her as of some fantasy, a Shangrila, a utopia or a paradise-lost. They simply love her because they know the wonderful aspects that the Syrian culture has.

Syrians are humans. Inherently, they are not any different from those who are Portuguese, Chinese or Canadian. If they are different at all, it is because of their acquired cultural inheritance; an inheritance that can have a significant bearing on their thought process, perceiving and evaluating events, and decision-making among other things.

To this effect, ancient cultures have much in common. Syria has been one of the cornerstones of ancient cultures. Long before pragmatism and obsession with economic growth, humans interacted at deeper levels, with valued virtues such as care, hospitality, gallantry, duty, accountability, honour and the like. Some of those virtues, especially in the West, look now somehow archaic and “primitive”, and they can become so when honour gets reduced to something that can be settled in a duel, but such misconceptions do not take from such virtues their true substance.

Those virtues exist in all cultures, even within the most modern of them, the most materialistic of them all, because people will always be by-and-large virtuous beings. However, in ancient cultures, those values are still alive and well and highly regarded.

What makes Syria stand out in the Middle East is the fact that those so-called “old-fashioned values” were well and alive within Syria before the “War On Syria” was launched. The polarization of the rest of the world that followed is still taking shape nearly five years later, and those who are standing against Syria, are giving clear statements about the nature of their own cultures and belief systems.

The reverse can be said about those who are standing up in defence of Syria.

The Russian culture, not quite as ancient as the Syrian culture, stems from the same “old-fashioned values” and remains to be a culture in which those virtues are alive and well. Whilst it is true that Russia has strategic interests in Syria, it is not however by accident that Russia came to Syria’s help and defence.

Syria and Russia are very different at the surface. They have virtually no common ethnicities, and very little in common when it comes to religion, despite Antioch (a Syrian city now in Turkey) being a cradle for Orthodoxy. The cuisine, the language, music, traditional attire, folklore, are all so different, yet at deeper levels, the cultures are very similar.

Syria is having a very tough time at present, and during tough times, one sees the best and the worst; from teen-aged Syrian girls taking up arms to resist invaders, to healthy young Syrian men fleeing to Europe to evade military service. Even worse, we see Syrian young men taking up arms to join ISIS and other organizations against Syria and her national army.

But Syria is still standing, and if she gets defeated, she will be defeated standing. She is still standing because the majority of Syrians opted to stand and to take the fight for better and for worse.

Russia has also had her share of misfortune after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The monumental turn around that Russia made in two decades, a turn around that brought her back from the doldrums of the worst nadir she had for centuries to that of world leadership; and almost overnight. At many levels, the “miracle” is attributed to the genius of President Putin. There is little doubt that without the wise and strong leadership of President Putin, Russia wouldn’t have been able to rise like she did, and as quickly as she did.

Having said that, President Putin couldn’t have performed his “miracle” without the Russian people and the culture that underpins their hearts and minds. Most Russians see him as the embodiment of their best qualities, and reciprocally, he brought the best out of them.

The Syrians who are standing up in defence of Syria are not at all different from the Russians who walked the talk with President Putin and put Russia back in the fore front of world leadership.

The West has become bent on destruction; including self-destruction. The level of citizen happiness and satisfaction is receding to unprecedented lows. Police shootings and public shootings in America are becoming daily events. Europe on the other hand is fostering foreign policies that have clearly encouraged terrorism and which only lead to the rise of ultra-right-wing policies. The sense of national and personal pride in the West is being eroded and there seems nothing on the horizon that can reverse this situation. After all, the “Yes We Can” Obama slogan failed to define who “we” are! The moment he gained residence of the Whitehouse, he and the people were no longer one, and “we” turned into me and you and him.

In contrast, in Russia and in Syria, Presidents are loved and respected. Westerners find it hard to believe this, but they do not know any better. They have lost their confidence in their own leaders decades ago. In Syria and in Russia, the army and the police are highly regarded, the elderly are treasured, and the ceremonies that honour those who have fallen are not mere ceremonial acts performed by officials, they are actions that involve heartfelt work and passion of each and every citizen.

Moreover, when Westerners take to the streets, they often do this in protest against their own governments. They know that their governments do not really represent them, and they therefore regard authority just like a prisoner perceives his warden. However, when Westerners see Russians and/or Syrians parading in the streets carrying posters of their leaders, they think it is government propaganda. They truly do not know any better.

Public property is sacrilegious (correction) sacrosanct in Russia and Syria; a stark difference from the graffiti-ridden West.

Morally, the West is unequipped to fight ISIS because it does not have its own moral anti-thesis to fight it with. In saying this, we must always remember that the fight against ISIS is not only military. If anything, it will have to be more ideological than military, but the West does not have what it takes to fight either war.

The fight for Syria is not simply a fight for a piece of land. It is a fight for decency and for cultures that uphold the good old-fashioned virtues that have almost totally disappeared in the West.

It is a war that can only be fought by Syrians who uphold the virtues of their culture, by non-Syrian supporters who have similar values, and by other nations who share those values.

It is a war of freedom of thought versus oppression, secularism versus sectarianism, duty versus laziness, respect versus disrespect, standing tall versus begging, enlisting versus desertion, knowing the difference between might and bullying, standing up against bullies, disallowing acts of injustice against those who are meeker, patience, resolve, steadfastness, dignity, pride and a huge dose of humility to cloak all of the above with the necessary human touch that does not allow those virtues to give rise to personal self-importance and egocentricism.

Some non-Syrians have risen to the support of Syria without having the slightest clue who and what they are supporting. Some have done this for reasons of vested interests, but unless those individuals and nations share those very same Syrian cultural ideals and virtues, they will either find out that they had deluded themselves, or others will find out that they have been deluded by them.

It is not by accident that Russia came to the defence of Syria. The similarities in qualities of the cultures are uncanny, and the role that Russia is playing now in trying to keep the West honest stipulated that she needed to make a loud and clear presence in Syria.

“The Orontes flows into the Tiber” was an ancient Roman proverb used to elaborate the then strong ties between the Levant and Rome. In today’s age, the Volga flows into Barada.