THE PREDICTABLE ERDOGAN By Ghassan Kadi

http://thesaker.is/the-predictable-erdogan/

The Predictable Erdogan

40986 ViewsOctober 26, 2015 93 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

I should thank dear friend Andrew Korybko for giving me the inspiration to write this article. After he interviewed me a few days ago on his program Redline on Sputnik Radio, it became clear to me that Erdogan is perceived by many observers as a fairly mercurial character; which he is. However, if we dissect his ideology and history, we may get surprised and discover that he is more predictable than most other leaders.

I must admit, I haven’t been to Turkey since late 1983. Between early 1982 and late 1983 I must have made at least ten trips to Turkey as my work took me there. One of the tricks I learned was to have most of my meals in the restaurant at my hotel and to charge them to my account to pay at the end. For petty cash expenses, I also learned not to convert more than USD 100 into Turkish currency at a time; the reason being the rapid depreciation of the Turkish Lira. So every time I cashed in USD 100, I got more Turkish money and paying the hotel bill at the end guaranteed that I paid it at the lowest price.

A lot has changed since then, and definitely on the economic front. Turkey now boasts being the sixteenth largest economy in the world. The truth must be said about Erdogan’s achievements on the economic front. In a very short period of time, he turned the Turkish economy from that of an almost failed state into that of a viable industrial and competitive economy. With a healthier economy Erdogan developed better health care and social services, gaining much accolade and support.

What has changed also was how Turkey was transformed from a nation with liberal Western attributes, looks and attire to one that has a government that is Islamic in spirit, looks and aspirations.

Last but not least, the political power was taken away from the armed forces and put into the hands of the president. That was a major change that perhaps has dug the last nail in the coffin of Ataturk’s legacy.

Ataturk gave power to military leadership. Army chiefs, a council of three comprised of the three main divisions of the armed forces, had the power of a council of elders and the position of a government watchdog. Should politicians put their own interests before public good, the council of generals could step in and declare what was seen in the West as a military coup, when it was indeed the army chiefs exercising their constitutional powers to save the state from the foolhardiness of politicians.

Erdogan stripped this power away from the military and gave the president ultimate power and virtual impunity. Clearly, he was preparing for something huge for which he needed ultimate power.

None of the above observations about Erdogan is a pretext of predictability unless put into the context of him being an Islamist. To see his predictability, we must stop for a moment considering that it is the president of a country that we are analyzing here, and just look at what are the core attributes of an Islamist and what takes precedence in his decision-making.

As an Islamist, ideologically-speaking, there is no difference at all between Erdogan and any ISIL member. They are both driven by the same doctrine that is based on Quranic misinterpretations, and both driven by the same passion and seeking the same objectives of turning the whole world into an Islamic state run by Sharia law.

With all the different Islamist groups that exist today, the difference is not ideological. They will differ on certain strategies, quarrel over transient political loyalties, funds and arm supplies (as they are currently doing in Syria), they will squabble as to what extent they should take the call for Jihad and whom to follow, when to turn it on and off, but in essence, they do not have any difference in their doctrines and outlooks what so ever.

Erdogan might have had a fall-out with ISIL, one that made his blood forfeit, at least for a while, but infighting in between Islamists does not make news headlines. To elaborate this point, a member of say Muslim Brotherhood (MB) can easily shift sides and become a Salafist, to later on join ISIL, and be back to where he started from with the MB. For as long as he is an Islamist however, what he will not do is to join say the Communist Party and/or any other secular party.

After all, strategically, ideologically and historically, Erdogan has two regional enemies; the Kurds and Syria. We may indeed stretch this a bit and include a third enemy; the Shia. In saying this, if Erdogan indeed openly declares animosity towards the Shia, he would have to declare war on Iran. In this, he would be taking Turkey into an unprecedented, yet ideologically-predictable direction. He hasn’t gone this far and restricted his sectarian hatred to Shia Alawites in Syria alone, with the full knowledge that this would upset the millions of Turkish Alawites and cause sectarian tension in Turkey.

But there is the other aspect of Erdogan; the ethnic nationalist Turkman aspect. Turkey is an amalgam of cultures and races and a long history of ethnic rivalry and remnants of ancient empires. The Turkmans, Mongols by origin, were originally the founders of the Ottoman Empire who snatched the might and glory of Constantinople (later renamed Istanbul) from the Byzantines bringing to end the Orthodox dynasty of the Eastern Roman Empire.

The Ottoman takeover of Anatolia has forcefully changed its name, religion and language. Furthermore, ever since the foundation of the Ottoman Empire in the fifteenth century, the Turkmans had the upper hand leaving other races (Halks, as referred to in Turkish) in a disadvantageous and rather disgruntled position in which they feel that their power has been stripped away from them and that their citizenship is inferior to Turkmans.

During the early Ottoman days, Orthodox Christians had to choose between coercion to adopt Islam or remaining in their faith and facing discrimination. At later stages, Greeks and Armenians faced the same destiny. Then as the Ottoman Empire collapsed and France decided to give the Syrian regions of Celicia and Iskandarun as a consolation prize to Turkey, the Syrians, and of course Kurds were also left in the same disadvantageous position as other non-Turkman groups. By the way, Kurds are by-and-large the biggest ethnic group totaling approximately twenty five million in Turkey alone.

Furthermore, to say that Greeks have lived in Turkey would be an understatement. Historically-speaking, the Aegean Sea was the homeland of Hellenic culture that has spread on both sides of its shores. As a matter of fact, not too many people pay attention to the fact that the ancient “Greek” city of Troy is in today’s west coast of Turkey. Even today, Greek islands are visible from the western coast of Turkey, and in reality western Turkey is therefore historically Hellenic and as Greek as Athens.

It is not surprising and unusual at all therefore to hear in Turkey the reference to the term “Turkish Halkler” meaning “The Turkish Peoples” rather than “people”; a term that indicates divisions and underlies danger if and when those different “Halks” are in combat with one another; a direction towards which Turkey seems to be heading if the Kurdish-Turkman and the Sunni-Alawite divides intensify as they have been since Erdogan’s leading participation in the “War On Syria”.

It is ironic that Erdogan started his leadership by making very strong inroads towards reconciliation with the Kurds. However, when Erdogan wore the hat of the would-be Islamist Sultan, he decided to support the Islamists in their fight against secular Syria. His miscalculations led to the fact that the Syrian Kurds had to take up arms and defend themselves from those Islamists. Erdogan then had to also wear the hat of the Turkman zealot and turn against the Syrian Kurds, with the full knowledge that this would turn Turkish Kurds against him.

When the Kurds were pushed in between a rock and a hard place and had no option but to fight ISIL, Erdogan the MB man, put aside his political difference with ISIL and risked Turkish unity in siding against the Kurds. This is because Erdogan is first and foremost an Islamist, and secondly a Turkman zealot.

It is clear therefore that Erdogan puts his Islamist agenda before his Turkman agenda and before the unity and cohesiveness of Turkey.

Erdogan was prepared to risk everything good he has done, all of his achievements, and put the country on the verge of a civil war in order not to abandon his Islamist brothers and agenda. Now as Turkey quickly approaches the decisive November the 1st elections, Turkey is marred by ethnic divisions, civil unrest, sectarian divisions, risks of economic downfall that may ensue, and above all a series of terrorist attacks, the worst of which was the recent peace rally attack in Ankara.

Erdogan therefore may one day put on the hat of a reformer, then move on to be seen as the NATO man of the Levant. He may even fool some in the pro-Palestine lobbyists when he beats his chest when Israel attacked Gaza or killed many on board of the Mavi Marmara. Now, he wants to be seen as a national hero trying so hard to finally reach a benchmark that all of his predecessors failed to reach, and that is to join the EU, but if this is going to win him any votes, the clock is ticking fast and the first of November is not far away. He may also pose as the Turkman hero who carries the legacy of Turkman superiority like all of his Ottoman predecessors, but at the end of the day, he is simply a text book material Islamist with all the dogmatism and predictability that comes with it.

THE BATTLES OF AND FOR IDLIB Ghassan Kadi

http://thesaker.is/the-battles-of-and-for-idlib/

The Battles Of And For Idlib:

23752 ViewsOctober 17, 2015 69 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

If there was ever indeed a civil uprising in Syria, it would have had to be, by-and-large, in Idlib.

Idlib is an impoverished region of Syria. It is located in the north-west, inland from the coastal Syrian Army stronghold of Lattakia, and south of Aleppo; Syria’s second largest city and economic hub. Being predominantly Sunni and poor, the combination made it a lucrative recruitment spot for the various Takfiri groups.

The process of youth radicalization has had Idblih as its base for a long time, decades, and long before the so-called Syrian Revolution, Civil War and Arab Spring started. After the Hama events of 1982, the Syrian Government did not want to, or was indeed unable to, stop radicalization without crossing that fine line between radicalism and Islam. The government did not want to be seen like it was standing in the way of teaching religion for the sake of teaching religion, and the zealot Imams, as well as their sponsors, seized the opportunity to use the veil of religious teaching in order to spread radicalism.

This situation was not unique to Idlib. As a matter of fact it is indeed akin to the position of Western governments who cannot touch the mosques without undisputed evidence that they are conducting military training. Even then, they will have to tread very carefully in order not to offend all Muslims.

In Syria, all poor Sunni areas had religious schools, and if and where those schools did not exist, there were always the mosques and their “teachers”. In Idlib however, the religious demographics stipulated that in the absence of other religious groups and movements, dominance of radicalism was inevitable.

Certainly, the funds came in from the Gulf, and especially from Saudi Arabia.

The Baath teachings and school curriculum subjects such as Arab Nationalism, taught to children at primary schools, were not strong enough to stand in the way of the radicalism tsunami, neither did the Government try to be seen doing this; all in the fear of being seen as anti-religious, and anti-Sunni in particular.

The Assad family is Alawite, but the Assads do not have a bone of sectarianism in their hearts. This did not stop their enemies from portraying them as enemies of Sunnis. The Assads, father and son, had to exercise great caution; especially after the 1982 Hama events which were used by fundamentalists to present it as a black mark against the Assad family and a drive for Jihadi recruitment.

In reality, Hafez Assad did not take a hard line at all, neither during the conflict nor later. It was his brother Rifaat who committed most of the tough and brutal acts, including the massacre of the Tadmur prison in which five hundred inmates were shot dead in their cells purportedly personally by Rifaat himself.

After the Hama events, the Syrian Government did try to clamp down on fundamentalist militarism, but it did not want to be seen probing into the works and teachings of religious schools and mosques.

Now, four and a half years into the war, The Russian air attacks and Syrian Army movements are eyeing Idlib with a special interest.

Clearly, even though the Russian airstrikes are hitting ISIS targets all over Syria, the military strategy is to cleanse the Western regions in order not to leave pockets from which the Syrian Army can be stabled in the back. To this effect, the biggest fish to fry is Aleppo. The key to Aleppo however is Idlib because it is heartland of Syrian opposition; if there is indeed such a thing.

It is only in a handful of Syrian towns and villages where Islamist fighters would get popular support and protection from Syrian citizens, and Idlib is on the top of that list. Conquer Idlib, and you have conquered the beating heart of Syrian-based fundamentalism.

With the air support it is getting from the Russians, the Syrian Army is moving on many fronts in the region bound between Homs and Aleppo, and Idlib is right in the center of it.

Events on the ground are moving very fast, and the fall of strategic positions and towns at the hands of the Syrian Army and its allies is rather difficult to keep pace with. The fall of Idlib has become inevitable, and once Idlib and the neighbouring Jisr Al-Shougour are over and done with, the fall, or rather liberation, of Aleppo may turn into a walk in the park.

Strategically speaking, the military battle of Idlib is one that is already of predictable outcome, and it is a matter of time before the rebel terrorists lose, escape, or surrender.

What is more pertinent however is how to win the battle for the heart and mind of Idlib.

ISIS cannot be defeated by military means alone. Military action can crush its infrastructure, cripple its finance base, decimate its military, but it will not defeat its ideology.

Wrong are those who only see the US-borne side of ISIS and conclude that America is the root of the problem.

The root of the problem is an archaic misinterpretation of the Quran that has been around for centuries; an interpretation that is based on conquest and coercion.

Unless those misinterpretations are addressed and debunked by Muslim clerics and leaders, and unless such misinterpretations cease to have a popular following, they will eventually resurface when the conditions become favourable.

The world should combine efforts not to allow the resurrection of ISIS, and this concerted effort ought not to be done only in Syria, but sadly everywhere there is a center for Islamic teaching and mosques; including those based in the West.

However, the truth of the matter is that the ISIS syndrome is not restricted to the organization that bears that name. It is the cumulative failure of humanity that has turned religion against religion, sect against sect, race against race, nation against nation and brother against brother.

ISIS might have taken a very harsh and brutal form, but the seed of ISIS mentality is embedded everywhere, in every religion, sect and nation. When it is cloaked under the guise of civility and human rights and masked by clean shaved faces, suits and ties with beaming smiles, it is not any less dangerous and devastating.

So before world leaders, even those with best of intentions, point fingers and regard ISIS as the sole source of evil and decide to eradicate it, people, as individuals and groups of different orientation, ought to look within and honestly address what beliefs, thoughts and motives do they harbour.

The battle for the hearts and minds of Idlib is a microcosm of the battle for humanity to shine. The military conquest is the easy part.

PUTIN; THE INCREDIBLE ABOU ALI: By Ghassan Kadi

http://thesaker.is/putin-the-incredible-abou-ali/

Putin – the incredible Abou Ali

20483 ViewsOctober 07, 2015 20 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

As the news of the Russian military action in Syria intensifies and takes more rather affirmative steps, the rest of the world cannot help but to look with a mixed bag of emotions all the way from awe to gratitude, anxiety, disappointment, frustration or fear and many others in between. Diverse as they may be in their outlooks, all observers are united in their gasps of disbelief.

It may look daunting to ascertain what best represents the major point of view of each stakeholder concerned, let alone to bundle the whole lot together in a manner that makes a comprehensive sense. However, if the main punch lines are considered simultaneously, the picture becomes much clearer.

One can almost conclusively say that the Russian strikes of one single week have been at least much more effective than those of the US-led coalition conducted over the whole last year or so. The actual news of Russian missions are not very detailed. They come in dribs and drabs without the American Hollywood-style razzmatazz that we have got used to ever since the 1991 Operation Desert Storm in Iraq. However, the fact that enemies of the legitimate government of Syria are upset, to say the least, is a clear indication that the Russian strikes are achieving their objectives.

Why else would Saudi Arabia be formally asking for Russia to stop its strikes? (1). The Saudis have had quite an intensive dialogue with the Russians in the last two years or so. Ever since Prince Bandar returned from Moscow empty handed in the middle of 2013, the Saudis realized that as far as Russia was concerned, Syria was a redline. Perhaps they didn’t realize how red that redline was; not even after the Russians brokered a peace initiative between the Saudis and the Syrian government, an initiative that only resulted in one formal meeting between government officials. The Saudis remained obstinate, and imagined that they could push Russia further and/or coerce it into submission; not knowing to what extent Russia was prepared to go after it had exhausted all avenues of diplomacy.

As for Turkey, according to M. Nour-Eddin’s article in the Lebanese daily, Assafir, published on the 3rd of October 2015 under the title of “Russia in Syria; Mass Turkish Losses” (2), Russia has tried very hard at different levels to bring Turkey into a brokered peace deal that would see the end of the “War On Syria”. The Russians have also tried to include Turkey in an anti-terror axis alongside Russia and Iran, but to no avail. Russia had gone further earlier when it used economic incentives for Turkey using the “South Stream” pipe line. But President Putin was getting quite annoyed with Erdogan who would promise one thing and then do exactly the opposite.

Now the Turks are also pleading for the cessation of Russian strikes on Syrian soil. The recent incursions of Russian fighters into Turkish air space are leaving them extremely concerned, huffing and puffing that they would affect the rules of engagement, but, for anyone to fathom that Turkey would dare shoot down a Russian fighter/bomber they would have to wait and see this eventuate.

For the first time in nearly five years, and in a bizarre twist of fate, the table has turned and the Turks are now worried about their own sovereignty and about the events to the south of the border after they have opened the flood gates for jihadists, looters, and arm supplies. From masters of the scene, the Turks have been reduced to beggars, and from Sultans to serfs.

With a war that he created and spinning out of control, a new war with the Kurds and growing animosity with Russia, Erdogan is going to find it very difficult to score the election win he dreams of next month. Perhaps out of all of elements of the Anti-Syrian Cocktail, none is angrier with the Russian intervention in Syria than the Turks and no individual is a bigger loser than Erdogan himself.

Russia has “gone too far”, so they say, and indeed Russia has gone much further than anyone’s expectations. But perhaps we have seen nothing yet. Retired American General Michael Flynn told RT that he is not surprised to see Russia’s reaction because Russia had redlines that were crossed (4). He diplomatically stopped a bit short of blaming the US itself for deliberately crossing those redlines, but according to him, when a superpower gets pushed to a certain limit, reactions of this caliber are to be expected.

In going “too far”, Russia has in reality imposed its own no-fly-zone over Syria after America and its allies failed to do this at least twice in the UNSC (5). In reality, all that Russia needed to make this imposition was the consent and approval of the Syrian government. But with this Russian no-fly-zone, all nations are excluded; except for Russia and Syria. What is of interest here is that Israel is also excluded, and the news of a heavy air defense system within Syria is a huge concern for the Israelis.

The Israelis suspect that this is not an interim measure that will be suspended once the Russian mission is accomplished. The Russians have built themselves a base in Lattakia, and it is their first and only base outside the soil of the Russian Federation, and they are not going to dilute that 300-400 km radius of air-defense zone around that base for as long as the base is operative, and operative it shall remain.

Firas Al-Shoufi of the Lebanese online daily, Al-Akhbar, has put it very bluntly when he stated that Russia is making it clear to the USA that the Mediterranean is not a part of the Atlantic (6). In other words, the Russians are now saying to their American counterparts that the Mediterranean, or at least the Eastern Mediterranean, is under Russian domain; not American, and that Israel will have to live with this reality and accept it because it has no other choice.

The Americans themselves are perhaps more shocked by Russia than most, and they are at total loss. Ever since the demise of the USSR, the Americans have been employing highly sophisticated military hardware designed to fight other super powers in their little-big wars against unmatched, much weaker and poorer armies. Now, they realize that if they venture into Syria and take a stand against the Russians, they will have to be prepared to face their match; something they are not prepared to do. America will not confront Russia because it is a bully and a bully only picks on those weaker.

And even though the Americans have admitted that the “moderate rebels” training program has failed abysmally, they remain adamant that Russia should avoid bombing moderate rebels. In a gesture that is partly diplomatic and partly sarcastic, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov asked the Americans to identify for him who are those moderate rebels. Yet, his request did not receive a response because no response could be found. In another rather sarcastic yet humorous statement, Lavrov clearly stated that if a fighter looked, walked and fought like a terrorist, then he is a terrorist (7). But it wasn’t until he said that the FSA is in reality a “phantom structure” that he openly and clearly said that there are no such rebels in Syria as moderate rebels (8).

All the while, America still claims that it wants to aid moderate rebels (9) and some reports indicate that it is prepared to arm them and train them. Keeping in mind that USD 500 mn training project has produced just five fighters, that ambitious American dream coming to fruition remains to be seen.

It is perhaps good enough to see that enemies of Syria, different members of the Anti-Syrian Cocktail, squirm, each in his own way. More pleasing to the ears perhaps is news of terrorist fighters fleeing. An estimated 3000 of them have apparently abandoned their positions in Southern Syria and have been spotted heading towards Jordan (10). Another 600 or so were seen fleeing towards Iraq.

And finally, in as far as the supporters of Syria are concerned, it is suffice to look at the position of Hezbollah via the eyes of Nabil Haytham of the Lebanese daily, Assafir, on the 5th of October 2015. According to his analysis and interviews of Hezbollah officials, he argues that the official Hezbollah position sees in the full coordination between the Syrian Army, Russia and Hezbollah the pretext of nothing short of “winning together” (11).

As all have heard the news of the first Russian airstrikes in Syria in disbelief, we look out for what will happen next with more disbelief. There are now talks about expanding the Russian bombardments to include terrorist bases in Iraq. There are even unconfirmed reports about preparations for a Russian land assault.

President Putin is taking everyone by surprise. He is already at the forefront leading Western leaders by leaps and bounds. In every step forward, he is pushing his unmatched opponents many steps backward. In Syria, Putin is endearingly nicknamed Abou Ali; a term given to someone who is tough and, the world is learning that when he talks business, he means business. The credibility of his resolve and action makes him well and truly the incredible Putin, and an incredible Abou Ali.

1. http://goo.gl/TsnSU0
2. http://assafir.com/Article/448490
3. http://www.almanar.com.lb/wap/edetails.php?cid=20&eid=1320889
4. https://www.rt.com/news/317710-russia-red-lines-flynn/
5. http://www.sott.net/article/302979-Russia-establishes-no-fly-zone-for-NATO-planes-over-Syria-Pentagon-freaks-out
6. http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/243350
7. http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/01/middleeast/russia-syria/
8. http://fortruss.blogspot.com.au/2015/10/lavrov-free-syrian-army-is-phantom.html?m=1
9. http://goo.gl/FbbR67
10. https://www.rt.com/news/317720-terrorists-leaving-syria-airstrikes/ .
11. http://assafi.com/Article/448762

_______________________________________________________________________
As the news of the Russian military action in Syria intensifies and takes more rather affirmative steps, the rest of the world cannot help but to look with a mixed bag of emotions all the way from awe to gratitude, anxiety, disappointment, frustration or fear and many others in between. Diverse as they may be in their outlooks, all observers are united in their gasps of disbelief.

It may look daunting to ascertain what best represents the major point of view of each stakeholder concerned, let alone to bundle the whole lot together in a manner that makes a comprehensive sense. However, if the main punch lines are considered simultaneously, the picture becomes much clearer.

One can almost conclusively say that the Russian strikes of one single week have been at least much more effective than those of the US-led coalition conducted over the whole last year or so. The actual news of Russian missions are not very detailed. They come in dribs and drabs without the American Hollywood-style razzmatazz that we have got used to ever since the 1991 Operation Desert Storm in Iraq. However, the fact that enemies of the legitimate government of Syria are upset, to say the least, is a clear indication that the Russian strikes are achieving their objectives.

Why else would Saudi Arabia be formally asking for Russia to stop its strikes? (1). The Saudis have had quite an intensive dialogue with the Russians in the last two years or so. Ever since Prince Bandar returned from Moscow empty handed in the middle of 2013, the Saudis realized that as far as Russia was concerned, Syria was a redline. Perhaps they didn’t realize how red that redline was; not even after the Russians brokered a peace initiative between the Saudis and the Syrian government, an initiative that only resulted in one formal meeting between government officials. The Saudis remained obstinate, and imagined that they could push Russia further and/or coerce it into submission; not knowing to what extent Russia was prepared to go after it had exhausted all avenues of diplomacy.

As for Turkey, according to M. Nour-Eddin’s article in the Lebanese daily, Assafir, published on the 3rd of October 2015 under the title of “Russia in Syria; Mass Turkish Losses” (2), Russia has tried very hard at different levels to bring Turkey into a brokered peace deal that would see the end of the “War On Syria”. The Russians have also tried to include Turkey in an anti-terror axis alongside Russia and Iran, but to no avail. Russia had gone further earlier when it used economic incentives for Turkey using the “South Stream” pipe line. But President Putin was getting quite annoyed with Erdogan who would promise one thing and then do exactly the opposite.

Now the Turks are also pleading for the cessation of Russian strikes on Syrian soil. The recent incursions of Russian fighters into Turkish air space are leaving them extremely concerned, huffing and puffing that they would affect the rules of engagement, but, for anyone to fathom that Turkey would dare shoot down a Russian fighter/bomber they would have to wait and see this eventuate.

For the first time in nearly five years, and in a bizarre twist of fate, the table has turned and the Turks are now worried about their own sovereignty and about the events to the south of the border after they have opened the flood gates for jihadists, looters, and arm supplies. From masters of the scene, the Turks have been reduced to beggars, and from Sultans to serfs.

With a war that he created and spinning out of control, a new war with the Kurds and growing animosity with Russia, Erdogan is going to find it very difficult to score the election win he dreams of next month. Perhaps out of all of elements of the Anti-Syrian Cocktail, none is angrier with the Russian intervention in Syria than the Turks and no individual is a bigger loser than Erdogan himself.

Russia has gone too far, and much further than anyone’s expectations. But perhaps we have seen nothing yet. Retired American General Michael Flynn told RT that he is not surprised to see Russia’s reaction because Russia had redlines that were crossed (4). He diplomatically stopped a bit short of blaming the US itself for deliberately crossing those redlines, but according to him, when a superpower gets pushed to a certain limit, reactions of this caliber are to be expected.

In going too far, Russia has in reality imposed its own no-fly-zone over Syria after America and its allies failed to do this at least twice in the UNSC (5). In reality, all that Russia needed to make this imposition was the consent and approval of the Syrian government. But with this Russian no-fly-zone, all nations are excluded; except for Russia and Syria. What is of interest here is that Israel is also excluded, and the news of a heavy air defense system within Syria is a huge concern for the Israelis.

The Israelis suspect that this is not an interim measure that will be suspended once the Russian mission is accomplished. The Russians have built themselves a base in Lattakia, and it is their first and only base outside the soil of the Russian Federation, and they are not going to dilute that 300-400 km radius of air-defense zone around that base for as long as the base is operative, and operative it shall remain.

Firas Al-Shoufi of the Lebanese online daily, Al-Akhbar, has put it very bluntly when he stated that Russia is making it clear to the USA that the Mediterranean is not a part of the Atlantic (6). In other words, the Russians are now saying to their American counterparts that the Mediterranean, or at least the Eastern Mediterranean, is under Russian domain; not American, and that Israel will have to live with this reality and accept it because it has no other choice.

The Americans themselves are perhaps more shocked by Russia than most, and they are at total loss. Ever since the demise of the USSR, the Americans have been employing highly sophisticated military hardware designed to fight other super powers in their little-big wars against unmatched, much weaker and poorer armies. Now, they realize that if they venture into Syria and take a stand against the Russians, they will have to be prepared to face their match; something they are not prepared to do. America will not confront Russia because it is a bully and a bully only picks on those weaker.

And even though the Americans have admitted that the “moderate rebels” training program has failed abysmally, they remain adamant that Russia should avoid bombing moderate rebels. In a gesture that is partly diplomatic and partly sarcastic, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov asked the Americans to identify for him who are those moderate rebels. Yet, his request did not receive a response because no response could be found. In another rather sarcastic yet humorous statement, Lavrov clearly stated that if a fighter looked, walked and fought like a terrorist, then he is a terrorist (7). But it wasn’t until he said that the FSA is in reality a “phantom structure” that he openly and clearly said that there are no such rebels in Syria as moderate rebels (8).

All the while, America still claims that it wants to aid moderate rebels (9) and some reports indicate that it is prepared to arm them and train them. Keeping in mind that USD 500 mn training project has produced just five fighters, that ambitious American dream coming to fruition remains to be seen.

It is perhaps good enough to see that enemies of Syria, different members of the Anti-Syrian Cocktail, squirm, each in his own way. More pleasing to the ears perhaps is news of terrorist fighters fleeing. An estimated 3000 of them have apparently abandoned their positions in Southern Syria and have been spotted heading towards Jordan (10). Another 600 or so were seen fleeing towards Iraq.

And finally, in as far as the supporters of Syria are concerned, it is suffice to look at the position of Hezbollah via the eyes of Nabil Haytham of the Lebanese daily, Assafir, on the 5th of October 2015. According to his analysis and interviews of Hezbollah officials, he argues that the official Hezbollah position sees in the full coordination between the Syrian Army, Russia and Hezbollah the pretext of nothing short of “winning together” (11).

As all have heard the news of the first Russian airstrikes in Syria in disbelief, we look out for what will happen next with more disbelief. There are now talks about expanding the Russian bombardments to include terrorist bases in Iraq. There are even unconfirmed reports about preparations for a Russian land assault.

President Putin is taking everyone by surprise. He is already at the forefront leading Western leaders by leaps and bounds. In every step forward, he is pushing his unmatched opponents many steps backward. In Syria, Putin is endearingly nicknamed Abou Ali; a term given to someone who is tough and, the world is learning that when he talks business, he means business. The credibility of his resolve and action makes him well and truly the incredible Putin, and an incredible Abou Ali.

1. http://www.elkhabar.com/press/article/91539/السعودية-تطالب-بوقف-الضربات-الروسية-في-سوريا/#sthash.BTjID2a8.dpbs

2. http://assafir.com/Article/448490

3. http://www.almanar.com.lb/wap/edetails.php?cid=20&eid=1320889

4. https://www.rt.com/news/317710-russia-red-lines-flynn/

5. http://www.sott.net/article/302979-Russia-establishes-no-fly-zone-for-NATO-planes-over-Syria-Pentagon-freaks-out

6. http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/243350

7. http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/01/middleeast/russia-syria/

8. http://fortruss.blogspot.com.au/2015/10/lavrov-free-syrian-army-is-phantom.html?m=1
9. http://www.almayadeen.net/news/americas-37nFONlm4Uqg7qUmAUZqxg/واشنطن-تفكر-في-تقديم-دعم-لآلاف-المسلحين-من-المعارضة-السورية

10. https://www.rt.com/news/317720-terrorists-leaving-syria-airstrikes/

11. http://assafi.com/Article/448762

THE WORLD DISORDER. By Ghassan Kadi

The recent speech of President Putin at the UNGA has shown the rest of the world the extent of Western lies and inefficiency. Moreover, the Russian military initiative in Syria that almost immediately followed the speech has left all enemies of Syria in a bind, confused, and not knowing what to do.

http://thesaker.is/the-world-disorder/

The World Disorder

34583 ViewsOctober 03, 2015 99 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

The recent speech of President Putin at the UNGA has shown the rest of the world the extent of Western lies and inefficiency. Moreover, the Russian military initiative in Syria that almost immediately followed the speech has left all enemies of Syria in a bind, confused, and not knowing what to do.

In one moment, Foreign Secretary Kerry says that he wants to cooperate with Russia all the while other US officials express concern about Russia’s role and demand the military action to stop. Israel is very concerned about the Russian-imposed curfew imposed on its air-force in Syrian skies. To add to Israel’s woes, some leaked news indicate that Hezbollah has received from Iran the highly advanced SA-22 ground-to-air anti-aircraft missiles (1). Turkey is up in arms because Russia is allegedly attacking the FSA. The Saudis are demanding that Russia stops its “assault”, and all the covert would-be Islamists are wishing that Russians would be taken back to Russia in body bags in repeat to what happened in Afghanistan.

Russia is clearly showing that there is no distinction at all between any of the illegitimate armed forces operating in Syria and that Russia is there to support the Syrian Army and the legitimate government, irrespective of the West and its supporters say, want or think.

Lavrov could not put it more bluntly when he said that “if it looks like a terrorist, walks like a terrorist, if it fights like a terrorist, it’s a terrorist, right?” (2)

In fact, one can almost be certain that the first Russian strikes have deliberately hit as many different groups as possible in order for Russia to send a clear message that it does not see any distinction between the different terrorist groups and that it is intent to destroy them all.

President Putin also made a very subtle remark when he said that the foreign fighters in Syria should not be allowed to return home. Logic implies that he meant that they should all be killed or captured.

The Russian military intervention is undoubtedly an unprecedented move that heralds the actual beginning of a new geopolitical era. This is a much further step from the previous milestones that signaled the end of the NWO era.

The end of the NWO hegemony has been made clear earlier in Ukraine and in the East Mediterranean in September 2013, and which meant that America is no longer the unrivaled world leader.

The ancient nation of Syria was destined to be the place where this historic new phase in geopolitics has emerged and where the basic change has been enforced.

When we use the term “enforced”, we need to qualify the nature of the enforcement because Presidents Putin and Assad are “enforcing” international law and bilateral treaties; unlike the multitude of US-led coalitions which invaded countries to topple their legitimate governments and to pillage their infrastructures and resources and destroy their economies.

So the USA is now stuck between a rock and a hard place. For the first time in a very long time, it is coerced to accept that it is no longer the sole world super power. Furthermore, it finds itself having to accept that a major international development has eventuated in Syria against its will and that it is incapable of stopping it.

But America’s acceptance of the new status quo and the abolishment of the post-USSR NWO is not the main dilemma that America is facing now. In the eyes of hawkish American politicians, the main issue would be in dealing with its aftermath. If America were to sit back and watch Russia implement its own resolutions in Syria, then such an American position would be tantamount to conceding defeat.

Conceding defeat is something huge that America is not used to do. For America to concede defeat is a serious matter that may, just may drive hawkish politicians to make big gambles and dangerous maneuvers.

Not very long ago, I wondered what would a desperate America do, and I wrote an article titled “How Far Will A Desperate America Go?” (3). Some potential scenarios were hypothetically examined and reactions considered, but the Russian initiative in Syria has shuffled all cards in such a manner that have now put America in a situation in which it may find itself needing to fight not only for survival, not only for stature but to also fight for its impunity and its ability of independent decision-making.

As a matter of fact, many observers consider that America’s actions in Ukraine were intended to punish Russia for the role it played in Syria up till 2013. We have to keep in mind that if this is true, it would have been in retaliation to the Russian downing of two Syria-bound American missiles over the East Mediterranean. In comparison to what Russia is doing now, the downing of the two missiles becomes child’s play, dwarfed and insignificant.

So here’s the question, if America indeed stirred up the whole Ukraine issue in order to punish Russia for merely downing two American missiles that were intended to hit Syria, then to what extent will America be prepared to go in order to “punish” Russia for bombing the terrorist cells in Syria and for making America look totally powerless?

Such a scenario is frightening to say the least and this is perhaps the only concern as to how the Russian intervention in Syria can go pear-shaped.

Short of an open confrontation with Russia in Syria, America realistically cannot do much in way of curtailing Russia. America’s Middle Eastern regional cronies, including Israel, are not in a position to stand up against Russia. Erdogan has been rendered totally powerless and the Saudis are deep in mud. Furthermore, even before the Russian onslaught began, the “Anti-Syrian Cocktail” had already broken up and each of its fragments went on solo picking up its own pieces in the pursuit of its own interests and survival.

Washington must be abuzz with turmoil and confusion. Policy makers, military and political advisors, strategists and pundits would be looking at all alternatives, but they must be finding it very hard to choose what to do because they do not have too many options. If America opts to leave Russia do its bit in Syria, it may do this with the knowledge and intention that it can still easily stir up another potential hot spot and/or rekindle the Ukraine fire and cause trouble for Russia. But this only solves half the problem because unless America manages to stop the Russian initiative in Syria, it will be seen as a party who accepted defeat.

Russia is trying to restore the globally-accepted UN-based world order, but America still has the power to create a whole new world disorder. Whether American policy makers are foolhardy enough to go into this direction, will be decided by many factors; including who will be sitting at the helm in Washington after Obama. We can well criticize Obama and we do and should, but it is very possible that the new American President to be will make George W. Bush look like Mother Teresa. This is perhaps a good reason as to why Russia needs to act swiftly in Syria and before some conservative nut-case wins the next US presidential elections.

Russia is now calling the shots. The American-led conspiracy in Ukraine has already backfired in Crimea with more Russian gains down the pipeline.

President Putin understands well the American mentality. He knows that the Americans are bullies and he knows how to deal with bullies.

Bullies do not accept to be seen defeated. Americans may therefore have to accept their pride to be broken, with minimal damage, if Russian diplomacy can find them a face-saving sweetener.

After all, the Syrian surrender of chemical weapons back in 2013 was a Russian-brokered sweetener that America lapped up without hesitation. The difference between the 2013 events and those of today, is that the downing of the two American missiles by Russia in 2013 was kept behind the scenes and only known to a select few. America did not seem embarrassed to be seen backing down because in the eyes of the world, it didn’t. Currently however, it is all in the open and any magic panacea that is going to give the United States any face-saving will clearly look to the rest of the world that it is written in Cyrillic.

(1) http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2015/Oct-01/317283-iran-has-delivered-sa-22-anti-aircraft-missiles-to-hezbollah-in-lebanon-netanyahy.ashx

(2) http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/01/middleeast/russia-syria/

(3) http://intibahwakeup.blogspot.com/2013/09/how-far-will-desperate-radical-america.html?m=1