LEBANON’S 14TH OF MARCH MARCHES INTO OBLIVION: By Ghassan Kadi 18 February 2016

http://thesaker.is/lebanons-14th-of-march-marches-into-oblivion/

Lebanon’s 14th of March marches into oblivion

14481 ViewsFebruary 23, 2016 8 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

On the 14 of February 2005, Lebanese ex-PM Rafiq Hariri was killed in a massive car bomb in downtown Beirut. His son Saad Hariri was quick to accuse Syria of the murder, rallied around him massive support, both political and demographic and successfully managed to get the Syrian troops out of Lebanon.

And thus the 14th of March Coalition was created; an unlikely alliance that was based on most of the former Lebanese traditional enemies of the Civil War that dismembered Lebanon and destroyed its stature and economy to the point of no return.

By “traditional enemies”, what is meant is the dipole of political hierarchy that controlled the traditional Lebanese power brokers during the periods of the French “Grand Liban”, independence, and golden age of Lebanon. These are primarily, and in order of prominence, the Maronites, Muslim Sunnis and the Druze.

Here, it is worthy to note that when the Lebanese Civil War began in 1975, the Sunnis and the Druze sided with the PLO against the Western-allied Maronites. The irony here is that after those archrivals have finished hammering each other, they realized that by weakening themselves, they found themselves surrounded by a new rising demographic power; The formerly forgotten and underprivileged Shia. So they inadvertently and reluctantly realized that unless they united, they could not curb the rise of the Shiite Hezbollah and Syrian presence, and later on influence.

In other words, in as much as Lebanese political Sunnis, Maronites and Druze leaders loathed each other and still do, they were united by their hatred to Syria and the Shia.

At best, the 14th of March Coalition was a marriage of convenience. And when convenience was not alone enough, Hariri money weighed in and bought support.

Many corrupt Sunni aspiring leaders and would-be leaders had a “loyalty-for-rent” banner written all over them. They knew pretty well that the leaderships of traditional Sunni legacies such as Karameh, Salam and Saad formed regional monopolies in the Sunni strongholds of the major Lebanese cities. For those aspiring leaders to have a chance, they had to jump on a new bandwagon. Saadi Hariri’s aspirations to become Lebanon’s first ever unrivaled Sunni leader of the whole of Lebanon was seen by those aspiring hopefuls as a chance from heaven. And why wouldn’t they? He offered them not only political positions, but also money, lots of money, supporters, money to buy support, and even money to buy votes.

Lebanese dual citizens were flown in from as far as Canada and Australia to partake in Lebanese parliamentary elections if they were to vote for the Al-Mustakbal (ie Hariri) candidates.

Songs were written and recorded portraying Saad Hariri as the one who is believed by his people as their saviour. They were played everywhere in Sunni stronghold. For a price, they were played on vendor’s stalls, shops, taxis, public arenas, sporting arenas, you name it. If Hariri did not worry about some kind of religious recrimination, he would have had those songs played at mosques.

His portraits, ranging from all sizes, all the way from passport photo size to meters in length and width were displayed in every corner of the Lebanese Sunni major cities and towns. Even Facebook has thousands upon thousands of members who use Al-Hariri father or son photos as their profile photo in a cult-like manner.

Saad Hariri ran American-style election campaigns spending bottomless funds, and managed to buy his way into establishing himself as a rightful heir to his father on the Sunni front. But he went a step further by setting himself as the leader of the 14th of March Coalition, proclaiming himself as the populist leader of not only the Lebanese Sunni Muslims, but also the coalition that includes Maronites and Druze. No one before him has reached this echelon.

From 2005 onwards, the whole of the pro-14th of March Coalition area, especially the Sunni areas, had Saad Hariri coming out of everyone’s ears.

For Hariri to bolster his popularity beyond his ability to buy support, he had to capitalize on the sectarian hatred of the Sunni-Shiite divide. In reality, his entire hatred to Assad and the Syrian “regime” is only based on sectarian grounds

It is easy to capitalize on hatred and bigotry. It is easy to buy support from people who can be bought. All the way from the northern Akkar region of Lebanon, east to the town of Arsal, including the coastal city of Tripoli, Lebanon’s second largest city, training camps and logistic support units were set up for the Jihadis, funded, trained and supplied by Hariri and Saudi monies.

As a leader and statesman however, Saad Hariri is not short of being joke. He cannot even read speeches that are written for him. During an address he once gave to parliament, he was making so many mistakes that the leader of the house sarcastically asked him if he would like someone to get up and read his speech on his behalf. He stumbles in every sentence and makes vocal expressions that clearly indicate that he didn’t even practice reading those speeches, and that reflected his utter arrogance, because apart from being who he is, he is also a dual Saudi-Lebanese national, and rich Saudis have the attitude of believing that everything, including respect and loyalty, can be bought with money.

But that tower that Hariri built for himself was not any less fragile than a house of cards.

It didn’t take long for the Druze leader Jumblat to leave the 14th of March Coalition. Jumblat remained rather close to Hariri and other leaders, and took a position in the middle.

However, as the “War On Syria” started to take a turn in favour of the Syrian Government back in late 2013, and as the Bandar Bin Sultan plan of engaging American and NATO troops in Syria failed, Bandar’s own position began to shake until he was pushed into an early retirement.

The new king Salman and his son Mohamad Bin Salman represent the Sudiri faction of the Saudi royals, and they do not like the heritage of the previous royals and their friends; including Saad Hariri.

As a matter of fact, Hariri’s major company (Saudi Oger) is in deep trouble and in debt to the tune of 7-8 billion dollars. Hariri was promised a bail out by the previous king Abdullah and a big contract that could get him out of trouble. The new king and his son do not seem to be interested at all in helping out Hariri. They are hanging him out to dry.

Furthermore, employees of the Lebanese Al-Mustakbal news agency which is owned by Hariri have not been paid for many months and most of them are expecting retrenchments without receiving long service payments let alone salary arrears.

Some argue that Hariri’s wealth has shrunk from a few billions to little over a few millions, and with this shrinkage, he is no longer able to master and muster those who were once subordinate to him.

As Lebanon lurks in presidential vacuum and remains without a president for twenty months, unable to agree on a nominee who can win enough votes, Hariri nominated Suleiman Franjieh, a close personal friend of Bashar Assad and a member of the pro-Hezbollah 8th of March Coalition. That was done in an attempt to eliminate the chances of the bigger political enemy; Michel Aoun.

In a sheer surprise to Hariri, his ally and former nominee Samir Geagea, the leader of the right-wing Christian militia Lebanese Forces, drops his nomination and jumps in bed with Aoun endorsing him. In effect, by doing so, Geagea has left the 14th of March Coalition.

A few days later, more fractures appear in that once mighty and all-inclusive coalition. Even small players like Tripoli’s MP Khaled Daher has revolted and left the coalition. Daher by the way is a Muslim Brotherhood man and was instrumental in smuggling arms and fighters into Syria from Northern Lebanon. This begs the question, who did Daher shift his loyalty to? To put it more bluntly, who has bought his loyalty? There can only be one bidder here; Daesh.

And just two days ago, the Lebanese minister of justice, the staunch Hariri man retired General Ashraf Rifi who was the chief of Lebanese Internal Security, who played a huge role arming the Sunni militants in Bab Al-Tabbaneh in Tripoli for nearly a whole decade, has also decided to resign from his position in the cabinet. His resignation is seen as the end of his honeymoon period with Hariri and the 14th of Match Coalition.

In hindsight, the departure of Syrian troops from Lebanon was no only pushed for by the 214th of March Coalition, but Saudi Arabia played a major part. The then King Abdullah has personally asked President Assad to withdraw his forces in order to restore peace and unity in Lebanon. That was a major step in weakening Syria’s sphere of influence. Had Syrian troops stayed in Lebanon, Hariri and his cohorts would not had been able to use Lebanese soil to smuggle Jihadists and munitions into Syria.

As mentioned above, Daher and Rifi were both instrumental in supporting Sunni fighters against the Syrian Army and forces loyal to Hezbollah. The funds they spent were sponsored by Hariri and Saudi Arabia.

Hariri played big and played dirty, and now he is falling on his head.

With friends like Geagea, Daher, Rifi and Mohamad Bin Salman, Hariri does not need enemies. What he bought with money slipped through his fingers when his funds dried out. His huge portraits all over the streets and major highways in Lebanon, captioned by the word “Al-Hakika” ie The Truth, the only truth time has revealed is the emptiness of his substance.

THe COLD WAR OVER SYRIA...WILL REMAIN COLD By Sami Koleib Assafir Lebanese Daily 15 February 2016. Translated by G and I Kadi

Introduction by Ghassan Kadi

This is an article that has been translated from Arabic by Intibah and me. It was published on today's Assafir (Lebanese daily) by Sami Koleib. He is a renowned pro-Resistance Lebanese journliast. He has made great analyses over the last few years and Intibah and I had the pleasure of translating some of his work.

In this article, he is articulating his views about the outcome of the huffing and puffing of Turkey and Saudi Arabia in regard to their threats of launching ground military operations in Syria. A highly recommended read. 

The translation was published in other media outlets

“The Cold War” Over Syria…Will Remain Cold

By Sami Koleib

Assafir Lebanese Daily, 15 February 2016
Translated by Ghassan and Intibah Kadi

For the Russia Prime Minister, Dimitry Medvedev to say that the world is entering a cold war, he is declaring the status quo..and confirming what’s already confirmed. But to say it from Munich, this is the same place from which President Vladimir Putin began to stand up against Washington in his famous speech nearly eight years ago. And, for Medvedev to mention the Russian Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 to stop an American invasion, is only a reminder of the new red lines for any land invasion perpetrated by the enemies of the Syrian President Bashar Al Assad in Syria’s north, and specifically to any Saudi-Turkish gamble with a NATO cover.  The cold war is realistically under way, what’s new in it this time is that it is the Syrian scorched ground that decides its destiny..and it seems that various contacts made in the last few hours have focussed on putting the situation under control and prioritising on fighting terrorism.

What’s worthy of noticing in what Medvedev has said, and he is the one who alternates Presidency and Prime Ministership with Putin since the duo decided to return Russia to the world centre stage, that there is no end to this cold war except through American-Russian agreement.. as for the others, they are simply pawns. Most probably, reason will prevail in as far as the American-Russian relationships are concerned, otherwise the cold war will heat up.  Contrary to all posturing, threats made, Putin and Obama continued to communicate, two days ago, just like John Kennedy and Nikita Kruschev did back in 1962.  According to reliable European sources, the Russian President asked his American counterpart to “harness” Turkey so it would stop its bombardment of Kurds and Syrian military targets, and also, to downscale the Saudi rhetoric about direct military involvement in Syria. The wording of Putin carried a clear warning to both countries if Washington did not make a move along these lines.

We should also note that the White House took the initiative to contact Moscow and made a statement saying that President Putin renewed his assertion to form a united front against terrorism..and that the defense ministers of both countries will intensify their coordination..the rest are just pawns! Barack Obama has no interest at all to bestow upon his successor a new war just before he leaves office and, after all, he is the one who forged an agreement with “the apex of the axis of evil”, Iran, and made peace with the “outlaw state”, Cuba, in his own neighbourhood.  Putin also does not have any interest to create economic burdens that a new arms race will inflict. 

So why is Medvedev making his warning?

The current problem of the United States is not with its adversaries, it is with its allies.  Saudi Arabia and Israel have been feeling marginalised ever since the nuclear deal. They both see the West marketing a new Iran.  Turkey, on the other hand, sees that America is bolstering its alliance with the Kurds and now has become prepared to accept that Bashar Al Assad remains in power..and his recapture of northern Syria.  It is an aberration for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the President of a NATO member State, to say to America, the leader of NATO, that their policies have turned the region into a pool of blood.

Have regional powers become able to declare mutiny on America and drag it into war?

Of course not, they can not revolt, but they are capable of kindling many fires unless Washington smacks them into obedience..and this is exactly what it is going to do.

According to some sources, American and European discussions have been intensified with all relevant regional parties.  This is essential, especially that Tehran has offered two responses: the first of which is a warning saying that the response will be very harsh and may hit the heart of Saudi Arabia, and that the Saudi forces will suffer a huge defeat if it gets involved, and the second one is by extending the hand of friendship to Riyadh via the words of Foreign Minister Muhammad Jawwad Zarif, the star of Western media since the nuclear accord.  Zarif said, “by cooperating with our brothers in Saudi Arabia and Turkey, we can resolve all regional problems and issues”.

Similar words were echoed by the Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Jubair in saying: “we are pleased to have good relationships with Iran, but they have to take serious steps and stop intervening in our affairs”, and as usual repeating his mantra that Assad will fall politically or militarily in the end. The pertinent point here is that the further north the Syrian Army moves, Saudi Arabia needs to repeat this mantra more often for domestic and regional reasons as well.

The statement that Syrian Foreign Minister, Walid Mouallem, made about the returning home of Saudis in coffins, is probably backed by joint Russian-Iranian determination to confront any foreign interference that has not been approved by both the Americans and the Russians under the clear mandate of fighting terrorism only.

Is it possible to slip into a wider war?

So far this seems unlikely, but however, some reliable sources argue that Saudi Arabia has made some plans for direct military action in Syria for a long time. Those plans were made before the big advances that the Syrian Army and its allies made in the north, but it had always felt that what the militants were doing was enough and that there was no need for that.  However, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are currently under great pressure and they are both looking for a role. What they seek is not essentially going into a war that Riyadh knows beforehand how much it is going to cost, what is sought however is to maintain a Saudi-Turkish role in what is planned for the future of Syria.

We should notice something very important: neither Turkey nor Saudi Arabia have thus far declared that they are embarking on their military intervention without a cover. They are both saying that this is all within an international plan to fight Daesh. For example, we see the Turkish Foreign Minister, Mouloud Jawish Oglu  declaring that, “if there’s an anti-Daesh strategy then it becomes possible for Turkey and Saudi Arabia to launch a land operation”… The “if” the Jawish Oglu statement begins with is very pertinent.   In a similar manner Adel Jubair told CNN that, “Saudi Arabia is prepared to send special forces to join the coalition in a land operation in Syria”, in other words, taking part in a coalition under the auspices and direction of the United States.

The possible escalation is towards a wider war but not towards an all out war.

This is possible if one of these things happen:
- if Saudi Arabia and Turkey get involved directly on the ground or in the air without an international cover.

-Putin made a clear warning two days ago, and Obama is quite unhappy about the Turkish bombardment of his Kurdish allies. Several American and European messages have been sent to Ankara in this regard.

-If Turkey shoots down Russian or Syrian planes over Syrian soil. But it seems that it would not dare do this any more.

-In the event of military confrontation between Israel and Iran, in either Syria or Lebanon, directly or via Hezbollah.

-If some intelligence apparatus commits a major assassination or a major explosion of significance.

What do Turkey and Saudi Arabia want?

Turkey and Saudi Arabia want for either the Syrian Army and its allies to stop moving north, and this has become impossible for them to achieve, or for them to get a role in future plans, as they both consider that the current period is very fortuitous for them to put pressure on American Democrats just before Presidential elections.  They will also accept to have forces in the “international coalition”, and this is what Assad has refused in his last interview in which he said that the war in the north aims for, “cutting the link between Turkey and Aleppo”… We can only imagine Erdogan’s face when he reads this statement, and as he is fighting an internal war with Kurds, and feels that things are falling out of his hands.

What will the allies of Assad do?

-Putin will continue to give the West both biscuits and tranquilizer pills, as his fighter jets are delivering fire on the enemies of Assad. He will continue doing this irrespective of what happens, for he and Assad are both saying that the current peace negotiations have nothing to do with fighting terrorism.

-Iran will intensify its direct involvement or indirectly via Hezbollah in the Syrian war, all the while making sugar-coated statements to the Saudis, knowing beforehand, that this will upset the Saudis more than calm them, such statements however make Iran look good in the eyes of the West and serve as a good cover up for military action.

With this complex regional and international Syrian scene, the main questions are the following: what is the true American position towards Assad?, how far did the American-Iranian agreement reach?, what is the level of American-Russian agreement about Syria?

It seems that [Druze Lebanese political leader] Walid Jumblatt has got the hint.  He said that the world will give Aleppo back to Assad in the name of peace.  Undoubtedly he would have wished that hint wasn’t there and that he didn’t pick it up. The time of trying to topple Assad is gone. Fighting terrorism takes precedence.  Future terrorism is going to be bigger and stronger. French Prime Minister, Manuel Valls said it very clearly in Munich when he stated that the Syrian Army is its most important opponent. There is little doubt that it enjoys tacit American support to move north. Obama will not allow anyone to drag him into a wider war before he leaves the White House.
http://assafir.com/Article/474225

Other outlets that published this translation

https://uprootedpalestinians.blogspot.com/2016/02/the-cold-war-over-syriawill-remain-cold.html



https://katehon.com/article/cold-war-over-syriawill-remain-cold

TURKEY AND SAUDI ARABIA; TO FIGHT OR TO FLIGHT by Ghassan Kadi 14 February 2106

TURKEY AND SAUDI ARABIA : TO FIGHT OR TO FLIGHT By Ghassan Kadi
14 February 2016

Article also makes reference to Sharmine Narwani, The Saker, Andrew Korybko's analyses.

http://thesaker.is/turkey-and-saudi-arabia-to-fight-or-to-flight/

Turkey and Saudi Arabia: to fight or to flight?

31321 ViewsFebruary 14, 2016 56 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

No one knows how the “War On Syria” is going to end, let alone what turns it will take in a year from now, a month, and even a week. There are many variables, new developments, twists and turns, and they happen quickly, and sometimes unexpectedly. And because we do not really what is going on behind the scenes in the corridors of Washington, Ankara and Riyadh, we cannot say from a position of knowledge that the trio are indeed conjuring for a land invasion of Syria. To make any plausible interpretations and predictions therefore, we can only base them on the revealed information, albeit it is perhaps mainly designed to feed the news-hungry media and their news-thirsty consumers. The analyses that we can produce cannot be based on more than this information.

This is an uneasy task because to confound the situation further, the recent information is not only incomplete, but in itself it is confounding and contradictory. We are seeing adversaries making statements that portray accord, whilst on the other hand, we see allies, or at least supposed allies, lashing at each other, and for different reasons, and unless we use common sense, we won’t make any sense of this at all; it only adds to the confusion.

To this effect, and to begin unraveling the information segment by segment, we must stop at a recent statement that Erdogan made. What he said to his American “allies” recently was not very different from saying “you are either with us or with our enemies” (ie the Kurds). Yet, Erdogan and the USA are meant to be allies and co-NATO members.

To say that Erdogan is unhappy to see northern Syria going back under Syrian control bit by bit, is a gross understatement. For nearly five years, he has flooded the region with tens of thousands of militants, supplies, munitions, and this is not to mention all the looting that was done to Aleppo’s industrial infra-structure. And now, almost in a blink, he can see this slipping out of his hands, all the while the USA is watching and incapable of or unwilling to do anything, or perhaps both. Erdogan has been very vocal in criticizing the USA and questioning its loyalty to him. He is furious to the extreme.

A few days before making his statement, Russia stated that Turkey is preparing for a ground attack in Syria, a claim denied by Turkey. Both of the Russian claim and its Turkish denial received little attention by American officials. Now, this is the America that makes it its business to poke its nose into the tiniest incidents and considers building a chicken pen in Peru a matter of national security. Why would America not comment about a serious matter such as the above; unless it is clearly saying to observers that it chooses not to comment because if Turkey launches a ground attack on Syria, then this is not America’s business!

But if we go back a few weeks further to the extra-ordinary NATO meeting that Erdogan asked for immediately after the downing of the Su-24, the resolution was for Turkey and Russia to work out their differences. NATO did not want a bar of it.

Erdogan is possibly the most dangerous man on earth at the moment. If not the most dangerous, he is definitely in the top ten list. If anything, he is a mega megalomaniac. He regards himself as a supreme being who was God-sent in order to restore the former glories of both Islam and the Ottoman Empire. He sees everyone else as inferior to him, and when he goes to confer with his allies, including Obama, in his mind, he is using them and not taking orders from them. Any observer and critic of Erdogan who is unaware of this fact is missing a very important reality, and probably the most pertinent link in the chain of this very complex and perverted personality.

In a recent article, Andrew Korybko brilliantly outlaid Russia’s options vis-à-vis a Turkish land attack on Syria (1). There are many options indeed, and in such an event, Andrew predicted that Russia will not engage in an all-out war with Turkey and may even allow Erdogan to vent a bit of steam provided that he does not go too far.

This seems to be happening now, or at least to some degree. Recent news is reporting Turkish shelling of Kurds in Northern Syria. Another report that followed later said that even Syrian Army positions have been targeted by Turkey.

There are even some unconfirmed news reports of Washington asking Ankara to stop its shelling of Kurdish and Syrian Army positions.

Obama made it very clear that he does not intend to have direct confrontation with Russia in Syria (2). On the other hand. Russia is warning against such intervention. Those warnings, do not only apply to Turkey, but also to Saudi Arabia no doubt.

In his latest article (3), The Saker predicts that “in the next few days, we are probably going to witness a dramatic escalation of the conflict in Syria”. This is possible, and even probable, but to what extent shall we see this escalation?

Then we look south of Ankara, at Riyadh to be specific. The Saudis are very restless and upset by the American inaction ever since the “War On Syria” started. They have been literally begging the USA and NATO for direct intervention, but to no avail. Now here’s the question, if America did not want to intervene directly in Syria before Russia entered the scene, why would they do it now risking a direct confrontation with Russia?

It is not uncommon for politicians to lie and to make deceptive remarks. It is very possible that America is trying to appear to look as if it is seeking peaceful outcomes whilst behind the scenes pushing its Turkish cronies into war.

Allies however, do not slander each other, not in public, not unless they are having a serious crisis. And allies do not plan to go into wars together if they are having a crisis. If we join the dots, the likelihood of direct American/NATO intervention in Syria looks very remote. They will most probably provide a tacit support for a joint Saudi-Turkish intervention, but NATO is highly unlikely to get involved directly in the conflict.

Furthermore, and this has been said many times by many analysts, Saudi Arabia is already bogged down in a war against the ill-equipped ill-funded Yemeni Army and remains unable to score a victory after many months of heavy bombardment. This is needless to say that the Saudi economy is in tatters. The Saudis are already using mercenaries from different countries such as Sudan, Pakistan and even Yemen itself in Yemen. They have also hired mercenaries from what is commonly known as Blackwater. The prospect of Saudis sending troops to Syria to fight and win is as farcical as them trying to put the first camel on the moon.

The Turks and the Saudis are extremely frustrated that their war efforts in Syria have been turned upside down. Foreign Minister Jubair is still preconditioning the “removal” of President Assad for any peace deal to be endorsed. No one is regurgitating his rhetoric with any sympathy, and his kingdom and Turkey must have reached the stage of thinking that if the tens of thousands of militants could not do the job, if America and NATO won’t step in, then we shall pull our sleeves up and do it.

For many decades, Saudi Arabia had been the perfect model that America seeks in places like the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has been stable and compliant. This is what America seeks as an ultimate objective; a compliance-based stability. When compliance cannot be achieved, creating instability becomes contingency plan B.

However, the tides of Saudi Arabia are turning, or will soon be turning. Saudi compliance is beginning to wane. The Saudis are very unhappy to see the Iranian nuclear deal with the USA coming to fruition. They are vocalizing their grievances and this spells danger for the Americans because it reeks with the smell of compliance-under-threat.

The same can be said about Erdogan with respect to his recent attacks on American foreign policies. And when compliance weakens, America puts contingency plans into action. This is the scenario when the American bully steps in and creates instability, but Turkey is not Saudi Arabia. If America now suddenly tries to pull the rug from underneath Erdogan’s feet, he will become the sacrificial lamb; not Turkey. But in the case of Saudi Arabia, and unless the royal family sacrifices the king and his arrogant son Prince Mohamed Bin Salman, then the whole royal family may be sacrificed.

In a not so recent article (4), Sharmine Narwani articulates why America is losing interest and ability to engage in more action in the Middle East, and again, I stand to be corrected, but the way I see it, America will not step in in defense of either Erdogan or Saudi Arabia in any invasion they plan for Syria. They may give them moral support, diplomatic support, and even arm supplies, but they will not engage militarily and will cut them loose.

This in itself puts the onus of winning on Saudi Arabia and Turkey. In this event, they will have two options; either send troops inside Syria, or just use her air space to launch limited aerial attacks and borders for some artillery attacks.

With the Syrian-Turkish borders now mostly in the hands of the Kurds and Syrian Army, ground troops will have little chance, and with the S-400 deployed, aerial attacks will not be a walk in the park.

The options of Saudi Arabia and Turkey are to pull back, engage in very limited skirmishes to save face, or expand the conflict and face grave consequences.

1.http://sputniknews.com/columnists/20160206/1034335764/saudi-arabia-turkey-syria-invasion.html

2.https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/2015/10/02/44c1f7fc-6932-11e5-9223-70cb36460919_story.html

3.http://thesaker.is/week-eighteen-of-the-russian-intervention-in-syria-a-dramatic-escalation-appears-imminent/

4.http://mideastshuffle.com/2015/08/11/iran-nuclear-deal-why-empire-blinked-first/

COMING TO A HEAD IN SYRIA by Ghassan Kadi 5 February 2016

http://thesaker.is/coming-to-a-head-in-syria/

Coming to a head in Syria

41052 ViewsFebruary 05, 2016 47 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

What started as a “War On Syria”, allowed to grow and fester unabated, fueled and sponsored by eighty three nations spearheaded by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Israel and NATO and all pro-NATO nations, is undoubtedly coming to a head.

Geneva III seems dead in the water, just like Geneva I and II were. This time however, Syria and its allies are calling the shots, and they are playing the cat-and-mouse game, and why not? After all, the ball is in their court and it wasn’t easy coming. It’s the spoil of blood and sacrifice.

That said, whichever way one looks at what I call the “War On Syria” or truly believe it is a revolution and choose to call it the “Syrian Revolution” or any other name for that matter, recent events are indicating a coming to head; one way or the other.

The time of stalemates has long gone. If anything, the stalemates were the result of a series of stagnant conditions on the battlefield which didn’t allow for victors or losers to emerge except in certain specific areas, but as the Syrian Army is now making sweeping advances in many territories and on many fronts under the aerial support of Russia, the stalemate is no longer.

Any whichever way one looks at the recent developments in Syria, favourably, unfavourably, or indifferently, one has to be able to see that there are some serious changes on the horizon. Those changes will eventually culminate into new directions and the coming to head of an outcome cannot be too far away.

Some of the head figures that were involved in the original orchestration of the “War On Syria” have already faced their own coming to head and came down crashing. Saudi Prince Bandar Bin Sultan was perhaps the most infamous “victim”. Few conspirers throughout history have fallen on their own swords in a more humiliating manner than the way he was demoted from a potential crown prince and king to a virtual nobody.

The outcome that has thus far been achieved by the collaboration of the aerial Russian might with the Syrian Army on the ground is tightening the noose on Erdogan and giving him a few bitter options. The Saudis are not in a much better situation, but Saudi Arabia does not have common borders with Syria and Saudi Arabia does not have Kurds.

Now that Erdogan has finally shown his true colours to the Kurds and spewed his hatred upon them in Syria, Iraq and within Turkey itself, he can no longer rewind the clock and restore his pre-“War On Syria” diplomacy status with them.

Erdogan must be shuffling his cards, contemplating different options and weighing out their risks. Without reaching some agreement with Russia, he cannot save face. But his window for diplomacy with Russia has been deadlocked and Russia will not sit at a negotiating table with him, not after he shot down the Su-24 and had his thugs kill the pilot as he parachuted. Realistically, he cannot emerge with any win, modest and insignificant as it might be, without some military action. But as his biggest military gamble in Syria was beginning to fail even before Russia intervened, what hope of military gain does he have now with Russia on Syrian soil and in her skies?

But if he sits back and allows Syria to win, among other things, he will be accepting to face serious and grave domestic repercussions. As a matter of fact, those repercussions have already started, and a quick look at Diyarbakir and its surrounds says it all.

The only other option Erdogan has is to have a military showdown with Russia, but to do this, he needs help.

The Saudis have expressed willingness to send troops into Syria to fight alongside the USA against Daesh (ISIS), wink wink. We all know what this means. This is their way of saying that they intend to use Turkey as a route and work alongside Turkish troops in attacking Syria. Ironically however, Saudi Arabia, that has a military budget higher than that of Russia, has not yet been even able to score a military win in Yemen, and probably never will. The recent announcement about sending troops into Syria sounds like a practical joke. That said, Erdogan does not need the Saudi Army. The Turkish Army has enough muscle power of its own, but not anywhere near strong enough to engage with Russia, and any Saudi involvement will probably be tokenistic. Furthermore, the Saudis might have been keen to fight against Syria, but they will not engage in battle against Russia.

Turkey will never be able to have a war with Russia unaided, but all indications are that it is picking on a fight with the Big Bear in the hope the NATO will support it. The ally Erdogan is counting on is NATO not Saudi Arabia, and this is not such a great revelation. Erdogan has been playing the NATO card long before the downing of the Su-24 last November.

If Turkey ever needed to be a NATO member, the reason was always Russia. The animosity between the two nations is centuries old and the dispute was not only over territory, but also religious. After all. The Ottomans have invaded the entire region of Orthodoxy, decimated the Byzantine Empire, and only Russia was able to spare herself from their iron fist rule.” But as fate took a turn and the Ottoman Empire was no longer and Russia herself became a superpower, when NATO was founded in 1949, Turkey had no reason at all to join it other than fear of the USSR.

For five years now, the enemies of Syria have been pushing their luck trying to engage the USA and NATO directly in fighting the Syrian Army but to no avail. The so-called East Ghouta chemical attack massacre was framed on the Syrian Army in a desperate attempt to get a UNSC resolution akin to the one made against the government of Libya a couple of years earlier, but this time Russia vetoed the decision.

But Erdogan never gave up trying to engage Uncle Sam. When he ordered his troops to down the Su-24, it was clear that this was yet another attempt to drag NATO into an intervention that it does not need and a UNSC resolution, but his plea seemed to have gone to deaf ears. The extra-ordinary NATO meeting that Erdogan immediately requested following the incident, clearly stated that Turkey and Russia should work together to settle their problems. That was NATO’s clear message to Turkey to leave NATO out of it.

But Turkey did not stop its attempts to pick on a fight with Russia. A few days ago, unoccupied Syrian towns close to Turkish borders were bombed as Turkey was apparently providing a cover for retreating Jihadists. As a matter of fact, the news today is reporting Russian awareness of a Turkish preparation for sending troops into Syria. Russia is warning, and Erdogan is definitely stirring the pot unabated.

With or without NATO’s support, it takes a madman to aim for war with Russia, but Erdogan is now as mad as a cornered rabid dog. All of his actions, ever since the downing of the Su-24 are indicative of getting into a military confrontation with Russia. This is what he is aiming for. A war of this nature has the potential to develop into a global war and a multitude of regional wars that will not only include the super powers, but also regional powers. Millions of lives can be lost, and no human in his/her right mind would wish it to happen. But how can one put a harness on a madman and stop him in his tracks?

Erdogan is taking an enormous and dangerous gamble here, not only in deliberately trying to engage with a superpower, but also in hoping that NATO will come to its supposed end of the bargain.

If a limited conflict develops between Turkey and Russia, NATO will probably weigh in, but the question is this, if a full scale war does break out between Russia and Turkey, will NATO enter the theater to protect Erdogan’s hide? No one knows, but a quick guess says unlikely.

Cynics and critics might say that NATO, and the USA in particular, will never let go of their regional interests in Turkey. This is true, but defending Erdogan and defending Turkey are two different things.

If faced between having to cut Erdogan loose to face his destiny or engaging in an all-out war with Russia, the USA and NATO might choose the former and sacrifice Erdogan personally. In fact, this would be a perfect scenario for a colour revolution, and what stops America from orchestrating one in Turkey? After all, they are the experts of turning against their allies.

A good look at the map of northern Syria and the recent advances of the Syrian Army clearly indicates that the western region of that border will soon be back into the hands of the Syrian Army, and soon could mean a few weeks. In a few weeks, if not probably less, the city of Aleppo will go back to the custody of the state and government of Syria. This will constitute a huge blow to Erdogan. Considering that the Turkish-Syrian border in the Hatay region is quite mountainous and difficult to penetrate militarily, once it goes back to Syrian hands, it will be virtually impossible for Turkey to take that it back. The eastern side of the border however is quite flat and any advancing troops will be sitting ducks for aerial attacks.

The other risk factor for Erdogan stems from the fact that during an election year, America is highly unlikely to commit itself to a new war, any new war, let alone a major war with Russia.

The fall of Erdogan on his head is bound to happen one way or the other, and the huge popularity he gained after reforming the economy is getting eroded gradually, and even though he won the last round of elections, if Turkey faces more domestic strife and gets dragged by its leader into a major war, not only the economic reforms will fall by the wayside and push turkey back to the economic abyss, but this will open the political doors to all possibilities, with or without a colour revolution.

As the clock is ticking however, and as forces loyal to Erdogan within Syria lose more territory and nerve, Erdogan’s need to gamble becomes more dire, and he finds himself pushed more and more into a corner, forced to play roulette, the Russian style.

TURKEY'S GATES TO EUROPE by Ghassan Kadi 5 February 2016

http://thesaker.is/turkeys-gates-to-europe/

Turkey’s Gates To Europe

35202 ViewsFebruary 05, 2016 84 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

The story of refugees flocking into Europe, and the avalanche of repercussions that followed, remains to be a conundrum that many involved individuals, including some seasoned analysts, are at pains to unravel.

Any denial that those refugees had brought with them very bad elements is a denial of a truth that is so loud and clear. And when some highly competent authors wrote about this and were attacked and called Fascists and racists, those who made those accusations must be living in a dungeon that lives by rules that do not exist anywhere on this planet. Not that I wish any harm to anyone, but I would just wonder what would those critics do or say if it was their own sisters, girlfriends, daughters and mothers getting ganged raped in the streets!

Many theories have been put forward to explain what is really happening in Europe, but with all due respect to many authors whom I greatly respect and admire, I find that none of those theories add up in a manner that is convincing and complete.

Apart from politics and political analysis, the influx of refugees was either a natural consequence of many wars and economic difficulties that have adversely affected millions of people, or it was something that has been orchestrated by an invisible plotter.

The former possibility seems remote because even though the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya have indeed disadvantaged millions of people, one would expect a steady trickle of refugees, not a sudden human tsunami.

This points towards the direction of having an invisible hand behind this, but whose hand is it?

Unless theories that attempt to explain what is happening are able to connect the dots in a manner that explains what made all of those refugees move in such huge numbers all at the same time, who is the plotter behind this, and what benefits the plotter gets out of it, then that theory is incomplete and therefore inaccurate. This of course excludes that other possibility and that is case of a plot-gone-wrong. Of course such a possibility cannot be zeroed out, but once again we are back to square one; who was the original plotter and how did his plot fail?

Many are quick to accuse the USA and the CIA for anything that goes wrong at any time and everywhere. I am the last person to defend “The Empire”, but we should not be blinded to facts and rationality. I can see how the USA can benefit from partially destabilizing Europe in order to keep it under the American yoke of submission especially in regard to the anti-Russian stand. But I cannot see how the USA can benefit from the influx of thousands, and possibly tens of thousands, of Jihadists infiltrating into Europe and threatening its peace and wellbeing! Any such accusations are totally absurd and do not make any sense at all.

Then there are those accusing Merkel, and she is not a saint to be defended either. However, for Merkel to welcome in migrants knowing that Jihadists were hiding within them is not something that anyone would expect a German leader to do no matter how corrupt or stupid he/she is. With all of her downfalls, Angela Merkel would not deliberately welcome in Jihadists. Let us be rational.

Other theories have accused George Soros, Nuland, NATO, and even the EU itself. But in all of those instances, the pieces of the puzzle do not fit in a manner that shows a clear beneficiary in all of this. So is this a plot that has gone wrong? Perhaps not, or at least not yet.

Thus far, the only beneficiaries out of this whole kerfuffle are the European ultra-right wing parties, and we haven’t seen anything yet. European elections in the next few years will clearly see a huge surge in their support, and this will only be a normal reaction to the trauma that Europe is now suffering from and the fear and xenophobia it is creating. That said, we cannot in our wildest of imagination think that it was the far right in Europe that has plotted, orchestrated and executed this whole ordeal.

This really leaves us with Turkey, or should we say Erdogan.

Perhaps we will never know what is really happening in Europe, but an analysis of all of the events surely and clearly points at one and only one potential plotter and beneficiary, and this is none other than Erdogan.

To understand this, we must rewind the clock here and go back to the early days of the Ottoman Empire.

After the Ottomans established their rule in Asia Minor (Anatolia), their next step was to control the Bosphorus and to put a foot on European soil. This eventuated in 1453 with the fall of Constantinople (renamed Istanbul). This was followed by the capture of the Balkans and most of Eastern Europe. The Ottomans wanted to avenge Europe for the Crusader era in a big sweeping manner and move into Europe and declare the whole of Europe an Ottoman territory.

On the Southern front, it was rather easy for the Ottomans to move to conquer Syria and Mesopotamia. The Arab/Muslim World was at the beginning of its nadir that it hasn’t yet pulled out of, and the ill-organized Levantine troops could not face the well-organized Ottoman invaders and the battle of Marj Dabek in 1516 was decisively won by the invading Turks. Soon after, the Ottomans took control of Mecca, the trophy of all Muslim conquerors, given that whoever is in control of Mecca becomes inadvertently in control of Islam and Muslims.

Not too many years later, in 1529 to be exact, the Ottomans made their first attempt to capture Vienna. The second attempt was made in 1683, and both attempts failed. Land topography was paramount those days when troops were powered by horses and mules, and the location of Vienna would have created a passage for Ottoman troops to easily move into the rest of Western Europe, but this was not to happen.

Back to the present.

What many observers fail to see and remember is that Erdogan is both an Islamist and a nationalist, but first and foremost an Islamist. That said, Islamism and Nationalism in Turkey take a peculiar twist; they come hand-in-gloves. To Turkish Islamists, the Ottoman Empire provided the perfect model; a vast Muslim empire headed by Turkey.

Ideally for them, this empire should be restored and expanded as much as possible breaking old barriers that the Ottoman predecessors were unable to surpass.

The pain of the humiliating defeat virtually at the gates of Vienna in 1683 is still alive in the hearts and minds of Islamist-Nationalist-Turkish zealots, and no one embodies those passions more than his “eminence” himself; President Erdogan.

So leaving Syria behind for a moment, Erdogan feels he has a score to settle with the Christian infidel Europe.

Plan A for Erdogan was to keep the refugees in Turkey, dislocate Syrian Kurds from northern Syria, and then relocate the refugees in the newly-created Kurd-free buffer zone and thereby separating the rest of Syrian and Iraqi Kurds from Turkish Kurds and putting an end to their hopes of forming a state that can eventually encroach into Turkish territory.

His plot was refused by Turkey’s best allies; the USA, NATO and the EU. This left a very bad taste in Erdogan’s mouth, and with the EU having the soft underbelly in this triangle of allies that stabbed Erdogan in the back, it was revenge time for Erdogan; and the best revenge he could think of was to send those hundreds of thousands of Muslim refugees into Europe. After all, they became useless for him in light of the latest developments and especially after the Russian intervention.

In the EU itself, left-wingers and humanitarians, well-meaning as they may be, often live in total darkness of all sorts of wheeling and dealing that go on around them. They stood up and coerced their governments to welcome in refugees, and Erdogan knew they would, and he banked on this too.

On the other hand, Merkel might have been tempted by the idea of bringing in a massive cheap labour force that is badly needed for German manufacturing industries, and feeling supported by the calls of the home-grown humanitarians, she considered that a mandate strong enough to enable her to take daring steps.

If there was a plot-gone-wrong, it was that of Merkel and the EU in general. Their plot however was restricted to killing two birds with one stone; bringing in cheap labour, all the while cloaking themselves with the guise of caring for refugees. The EU plot could not have been to inundate Europe with Jihadi terrorists and rapists.

Only Syria and Russia understand Erdogan’s mind and what agendas he is hiding, and this is why they know where to hit him where it hurts the most, and right now, Syrian troops, supported by Russian air power, are moving on the ground and approaching Turkish borders in both of the Lattakia and Aleppo provinces.

The West on the other hand is, generally speaking, often short-sighted and even stupid. What adds to the short-sightedness and stupidity of its politicians is that section of humanitarians who are noisy and who do not know the difference between a true refugee in need and a rascals taking advantage of their lofty principles.

Thus far, it is all plot-gone-wrong for Erdogan in Syria, but his contingency plan B in Europe, if there is one indeed, is going pretty well. However, there is a big twist here. In the case of the “War On Syria” there were thousands of Syrians and their friends who knew exactly what the enemies of Syria were up to. They took upon themselves to stand up to tell the rest of the world the true untold story of Syria. Europeans and their supporters on the other hand seem to be none-the-wiser and totally unaware of the new Turkish plot. They have no idea at all that the Sultan is revamping old Islamist-Nationalist Turkish dreams. This spells grave danger.

It is possible that EU leaders are waking up, but we cannot be sure. The bribe funds given to Erdogan on the surface seem to have no justification at all. If anything, they look like rewarding bad behavior, but it is possible that those payments are made for Erdogan to stop further human flow , because he is the one in control of who leaves for Europe, when and how many.

Erdogan would not care if those Islamists flocking into Europe are pro-Saudi Wahhabists or whether they are under his control or not. As a matter of fact, he seems to have learnt from the mistake of Bandar Bin Sultan who was delusional enough to think that he could control what became ISIS. Erdogan simply wants to flood Europe with Muslims, radical Sunni Muslims of any persuasion.

I stand to be corrected, but I cannot see any other explanation of the truth of the sudden rush of Muslim refugees into Europe, who would or could plot such a rush, and who would benefit from it other than Erdogan.

To be fair to Erdogan, his dreams are not any better or worse than the dreams of an American hegemony, or any other national, racial, religious, sectarian empire-building dreams. It’s the sad story of human greed that can be blind and boundless. One would wonder if humanity would ever learn.