THE HEADING OF THE ROLLING HEADS OF LEBANON. Ghassan Kadi 28 November 2019

Further thoughts of Ghassan Kadi on the events in Lebanon

http://thesaker.is/the-heading-of-the-rolling-heads-of-lebanon/

The Heading Of The Rolling Heads Of Lebanon

11174 ViewsNovember 28, 2019 19 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog

It was totally fortuitous that I dedicated a fair chunk of my previous article to the Lebanese journalist Sami Koleib https://thesaker.is/hezbollah-and-the-basket-of-liberators/ . A cornerstone of the pro Axis of Resistance journalism and a pillar of Al-Mayadin media network is no longer; after he announced his sudden and somehow controversial resignation announcing that “in line with my thoughts, convictions and conscience,  I have resigned today from Al-Mayadin network wishing for it continued growth and success” https://www.lebanondebate.com/m3/news/460381

What is of pertinent interest herein is the fact that this resignation came only a couple of days after publishing his article -and which was referred to at length in my previous article- http://180post.com/archives/tag/العقوبات-الأميركية  in which he made comments that were seen to be critical of Hezbollah and its leader Chairman Nasrallah.

Some, on the Axis of Resistance side, are rushing to label Mr. Koleib as a traitor, a deserter, or less dramatically perhaps as someone who was easily manipulated, persuaded and swayed to jump ship. I beg to differ, because  personally, I put his “critique” in the basket of constructive criticism, and it is in this same spirit that I have independently written a few articles referring to the same and using almost exactly the same argument.

Four lives have thus far been tragically lost in the uprising, but the tally of fallen heads must include that of Koleib, though I don’t believe that his career will end right here and now. He is still fairly young and has many years of good productivity left in him, but his fall from the higher echelons of Al-Mayadin is a direct outcome of his point of view that sees, just like I do, that Hezbollah needs to make some serious and immediate adjustments to its political decisions.

For years leading up to this, one of the biggest meddlers in Lebanese domestic politics was Jeffrey Feltman. Feltman was the American Ambassador in Lebanon from 2004 till 2008. He watched to his horror how Israel was humiliated at the hands of Hezbollah in July 2006, and was unable to do anything about it. His greater horror and dismay was seeing the extremely high popularity rate of Hezbollah amongst the Lebanese populace, how it commanded respect and to witness such a high level of awe and admiration the majority of Lebanese people had for Nasrallah personally. In a display of utter Schadenfreude, Feltman is now gloating over the “shrinking popular support of Hezbollah” within Lebanon as a whole and the Shiite community in specific.  https://m.aawsat.com/home/article/2004376/فيلتمان-أكثرية-اللبنانيين-رفضت-الاستماع-لمطالب-نصرالله

What is disappointingly sad about this, is that for the first time ever perhaps, there is a ring of truth to some of the statements the rascal is propagating. It is outcomes like this one, dear readers, which prompted me to write in a manner that some people may not like any more than I do. Only a few weeks ago, I would never have imagined myself whispering in someone’s ear anything that can remotely be seen as a negative statement to do with any actions of Hezbollah let alone being publicly critical of its political stand. But constructive criticism is what friends do when it is necessary. In the past, Feltman was lying when he said that Hezbollah doesn’t represent the majority of Lebanese, but in saying the same now, his words are increasingly reflecting a horrifying trend. This troglodyte who has tried all that was in his power to bring down Hezbollah’s popularity has had this outcome offered to him on a silver platter.

And why did all of this happen, we ask again? It is because Hezbollah is involved in politics, has 11 out of 128 members of the Lebanese Parliaments plus significant number of ministers in all cabinets for the last 20 years or so. In the eyes of the Lebanese, it’s involvement makes it partly responsible for the many failures of the Lebanese administration; corruption included.

Almost concurrently with Feltman’s statement, Trump made an even more audacious statement. The POTUS announced that America will be ready to work with a new Lebanese government that meets the demands of the people.  https://www.the961.com/news/trump-united-states-ready-to-work-with-new-lebanese-government-that-meets-the-demands-of-the-people Yes, Lebanon needs a new government and a new style of governance and an end to corruption, but not the American style, not according to what Trump and Feltman want.

Yes, there are serious attempts by the real enemies of Lebanon to infiltrate and hijack the street uprising which they have done already. But what are the genuine Lebanese and pro Axis of Resistance activists and writers supposed to do? Are they to stand against the uprising because it is getting hijacked or are they to remain quiet because criticizing Hezbollah is taboo, or are they to offer sincere advice?

Furthermore, the longer it takes for the uprising to yield results, the higher the chance of further infiltration. Everyone is bleeding. The country has come to a standstill. The nefarious groups are blocking roads making it impossible for business to run. The whole country is in shut-down mode. Banks are not writing letters of credit in US Dollar, which means that for a country that is import dependent, before too long there will be shortages of basic commodities including food supplies. The bigger danger however is in giving the infiltrators more time to plot and make their plots work.

Admittedly, Nasrallah wants a renormalization of civil life as soon as possible. There is no doubt in my mind that he is genuine in his desire, but the basics upon which return to normality have not been agreed upon. Nasrallah is quite aware that Hezbollah has nothing to gain, and possibly much to lose if the protests continue unabated and the longer the street movement lasts. But with or without any foreign backers and meddlers, the protestors will not pack up and go home before they make significant achievements. They have nothing to lose, and many of them have exposed their faces, thereby putting their own necks on the chopping board and risking persecution and acts of vendetta by their political leaders and henchmen if reform is not implemented.

As far as the timing of the protests is concerned, even some very savvy pundits are saying that they have been taken by surprise; a statement I find very surprising in itself. Those who are not familiar with the history of Lebanon do not know that even though Lebanon has been invaded many times throughout history, it was never easy to rule its people. Even during the height and might of the Ottoman Empire in the 16th Century, Lebanon had a strong army and autonomy. The might of Israel a few centuries later was humiliated and defeated. Even Alexander the Great, who conquered the whole ancient known world, within a few years was stopped at the walls of the kingdom city of Tyre for seven long months. And when President Suleiman Franjieh lost his popularity during the civil war, he was shelled out of the presidential palace. Subduing the Lebanese people was not historically therefore an easy walk in the park, and if anything, one should find it surprising that it took many decades of injustice for the Lebanese to rise against their government.

Others, who do not know much about Lebanon and are nonetheless prepared to write about it, argue that the protests are legitimate; with a proviso, a “but”, in desperate attempts to fit the uprising neatly into their familiar box of colour revolutions. There are no real “ifs” and “buts” when it comes to revolts against the magnitude of injustice that the Lebanese people have endured over the last few decades. It must be understood that the protestors felt that they have lost everything and with nothing more left to risk losing. In that frame of mind, nothing else matters and, unfortunately, the risk of infiltrators and deflections have no place in their mental framework.

This is very clear, because a good look at the protestors does not show they are all suffering from poverty. They do not necessarily look hungry. But those who did not lose their livelihood, have lost their dignity, and it is this sense of common grief that united them all in an unprecedented manner.

And speaking of the protests, the Lebanese are doing it in style. The Lebanese people are party animals with a great sense of humour. The protests turn into carnivals sometimes, venues for marriage proposals and even weddings. There are intermittent musical parties including belly dancing, smoking Shisha, and huge meals feasts. People and businesses are offering food, for free. Chanting and singing are filling the rings and town squares.

They see their protest as a huge cleansing party, and they are having fun, unarmed and fearless.

So back to Koleib. Why did he resign?

Was it because of the backlash that followed the interview he gave President Aoun a few days earlier? https://www.facebook.com/LBCILebanon/videos/421437568541547/. There is a rumour spreading in Lebanon that the interview was followed by an altercation between Koleib and Gibran Bassil, the President’s son-in-law and heir apparent. Purportedly, Bassil saw that the interview was a flunk and blamed Koleib and insulted him, and because Al-Mayadin was unable to canvass an apology from Bassil, Koleib resigned. This scenario looks unlikely because in this interview, it was President Aoun who put his own foot into his own mouth. Koleib was actually asking him the “right” questions and even gave him subtle hints as to how they should be answered properly, but it was the President who asked those Lebanese citizens who don’t like what is going on to leave the country!! Mr. Koleib can hardly be blamed for this goof. Moreover, that interview was more than a week prior to the resignation, and if it were the straw that broke Mr. Koleib’s back, its repercussions should have been evident a few days earlier.

Does this take us back to the afore-mentioned article in which Mr. Koleib was critical of Hezbollah?

But here’s the thing. Did he resign willingly or was he “politely” asked to resign? Was he coerced or even threatened? And by whom, and why exactly? Is the whole kerfuffle because Hezbollah is meant to be beyond reproach and unable, or rather unwilling, to listen to well-concerted advice from a lifelong friend and ally? Was the decision for him to go made in Beirut or outside it? Was it made outside Lebanon? Has the media control that is prevalent in the region been exported to Lebanon? We need to ask those questions as they are all very pertinent.

In my previous article I reiterated that in Lebanon there are more than a hundred reasons for a revolution. With the resignation of Mr. Koleib, we must add one more reason; and that is the emerging lack of free speech and freedom of self-expression. Does Mr. Koleib have to bunker with the opposite political dipole for him to be able to speak freely about this particular subject and in the manner that he did? Does he have to join the Hariri camp? The Christian Lebanese Forces militia or Jumblat? And if he does reposition himself with any of these, would he still be able to criticize them? I think not. Why is it that he is not allowed to continue to be the free thinker that he is?

Any which way we look at it, I smell a big rat, and it is clean up time, for better or for worse. Heads will roll, not literally I hope. With four civilians tragically killed thus far and Mr. Koleib “resigning”, we should only expect more heads to roll, and the protestors are adamant to remove all incumbent politicians and their ruling legacies from the political map under the slogan of “Killon Yaani Killon” (All of them means all of them). This is quickly becoming akin to either all of them or all of us.

Revolutions are invariably marred with chaos, and thus far, only the wrong heads have fallen in Lebanon. People are very hopeful that the uprising will lead at least to some partial gains, but for this to happen, the heads that ought to roll are the ones who were behind the rot and fanned its destructive flame; not the ones who are trying to bring reform and stifle the fire of corruption. The next heads to roll will tell us which way the revolution is heading. It is hoped that Hezbollah will be able to get out of its defensive corner and be actively involved in steering the uprising in the right direction.

HEZBOLLAH AND THE BASKET OF LIBERATORS By Ghassan Kadi. 21 Nov 2019

       https://thesaker.is/hezbollah-and-the-basket-of-liberators/

Hezbollah And The Basket Of Liberators

14876 ViewsNovember 21, 2019 17 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog

“Living is easy with eyes closed, misunderstanding all you see” (John Lennon). Some who want to believe that Hezbollah is faultless, obviously live by this fantasy paradigm, and will disagree and attack anyone who says the contrary; irrespective of facts.

My previous article on virtually the same subject was faced by a rather fierce backlash in the commentary, http://thesaker.is/hezbollahs-unchartered-frontier-turning-boggy/ but is this not enough reason for me to stop reporting the truth on the ground, and for this reason, among others, I feel I must continue exposing the truth of what is going on in Lebanon.

One comment “demanded” that I present a personal history, and in response, I shall provide two; one for Sami Koleib and a personal one.

Sami Koleib is not exactly the official Voltaire behind Hezbollah, but I cannot think of another writer who is closer to that station. Throughout the last couple of decades; and specifically during the hot era of the “War on Syria”, he has been an ardent supporter of Hezbollah and a very prolific writer on Al-Mayadin, Al-Akhbar, Twitter and other media.

By the way, Al-Mayadin is a splinter Arab news media network that broke away from Al-Jazeera when the mother organization turned into an anti-Syrian propaganda machine. Headed by former Al-Jazeera journalist Ghassan Bin Jiddo, the young Al-Mayadin became the voice of the Axis of Resistance. And even though it has recently received criticism for being too pro-Iranian, Al-Mayadin has maintained its position vis-à-vis the Arab Axis of Resistance.

In a recent article published on the 18th of November under that title of “Saad Hariri the Master of the Game…of Suicide”, http://180post.com/archives/tag/العقوبات-الأميركية

Koleib is making many subtle remarks that hint and indicate that Hezbollah is in hot water. Western couch activists whose vision is blinkered by acute myopia and soiled by suffering from a strong bout of conjunctivitis should stop to listen and put up or shut up.

I have never met Mr. Koleib in person, but I have been one of his fans. I admired his work so much that I translated some of it into English to pass on his amazing input to English-speaking readers.

https://intibahwakeup.blogspot.com/2016/02/the-cold-war-over-syriawill-remain-cold.html

https://intibahwakeup.blogspot.com/2014/05/putin-elevates-military-cooperation.html

https://intibahwakeup.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-russian-lion-translatedinterpreted.html

Some of the above translations were circulated and republished on different blogs.

And ever since the “War on Syria” took form, and as I was relentlessly defending Hezbollah and bringing information about it to Western readers, what stands out is a blog article titled “Know Thine Hezbollah”, an article I wrote back in 2013. https://intibahwakeup.blogspot.com/2013/09/know-thine-hezbollah.html. My focal point in this was not only on what Hezbollah was engaged in, but also on what the Axis of Resistance media wrote about it; and the work of Koleib was an indispensable and integral part of.

But to put things into the right and proper perspective, Soros-type colour revolutions like those in Syria are one thing and genuine revolutions are something else.

There was neither a revolution nor a civil war in Syria. The Western media plus its cohorts concocted it and their henchmen executed it. The same can be said about Ukraine and perhaps some other places. But the situation in Lebanon is quite different, and those who do not know this, simply do not understand Lebanon.

Everything in Lebanon calls for a revolution. There are many more than a hundred reasons to protest about. The economy is in total ruin. Basic services like water, electricity and garbage collection are almost non-existent. Unemployment and state debt are sky rocketing. Corruption is in every sector. But yet, the country is sitting on huge untapped oil/gas resources, it is very rich in fresh water, human resources, and literally millions of well-to-do expats who are potential huge investors. This is not to mention Lebanon’s amazing natural beauty, rich history and huge potential for tourism.

Lebanese people who have enjoyed a fairly high standard of living akin to that of developed countries for decades, despite a ravaging civil war that lasted from 1975 till 1989, are now wondering why is it that they have to live in abject poverty. They are blaming their political leaders, and rightfully so.

Corruption has always been an issue in Lebanon, but in the 1960’s and 70’s, things got done, albeit not up to the required standards. Now, the trail of corruption is no longer hidden. Contractors get paid, they pay their bribes to officials, but the work does not get done at all. The corruption has reached breaking point.

Those living outside Lebanon and looking at its politics look at it with a monochromatic vision of black and white. Depending on their political inclinations and which side they favour, they only see two opposing dipoles; the 8th of March coalition (ie Hezbollah and supporters) and the 14th of March coalition (ie Hariri and supporters). And even though the latter has morphed hugely since its inception and lost many of its founding members, there remain the remnants of an anti-Hezbollah coalition in Lebanon. Surely, one would expect that the recent turn of events is giving them momentum.

Undoubtedly, the West is capitalizing on this group to make the street anger more untenable for Hezbollah, but the issues fueling the anger are not the work of the enemies of Lebanon. The revolution is genuine. It’s causes are legitimate. It is real. This is why it is so easy for nefarious agents to tap right into it. And as this is already happening, and as the local and legitimate revolution is quickly turning Lebanon once again into an arena for international score settling, it is in Hezbollah’s interest to resolve the conflict as quickly as possible and as domestically as feasible.

Surely, after their abysmal defeat in Syria at the hands of the Syrian Army aided by Russia, Syria’s friends; including Hezbollah, the enemies of the Axis of Resistance would be looking at all ways possible to hit back, and there seems to be no better soft underbelly than the existing and legitimate anger in the streets of Lebanon.

What makes this anger most promising for these enemies is the fact that it is endorsed even by certain sectors within the Shiite household, ie Hezbollah’s heartland.

This should not be hard to understand. Actually, rarely do adversaries receive such a gift on a silver platter; their own enemy surrounded by local enemies and in-house dissent.

It is rather sad and unfortunate to see the Saudis, the Gulfies and the West gloating about the recent uprising in Lebanon. But the turn of events and the street anger has turned them into apparent winners.

I cannot speak of what is going on in Iran. I have no idea about what is happening there. If I were to believe the mainstream media, I would conclude that the days of the status quo are numbered. But we have witnessed this scenario before and we know that what is reported does not necessarily reflect the truth. From the outside looking in, we do not know the percentage of Iranians who are actually and genuinely opposed to their government. But what I do know for certain is that there is an overwhelming majority of Lebanese who are anti-government and who see it as an extension of Hezbollah and blame Hezbollah for turning a blind eye to corruption and being complicit to it. Right or wrong in their views, this is what their perception is.

Nasrallah has been accused of hubris by his opponents for many years, but now, some of his ardent allies, including the pillar himself, the Voltaire, Mr. Koleib, are hinting that he is looking confused, caught off guard and cornered (see Koleib’s article above).

If anything, my previous articles are those of a person who is not only deeply concerned about the future of Hezbollah, but doing so with a heavy bleeding heart to see that all the achievements, all the blood spilt, all the sacrifices, may all go to waste because of a short-sighted political miscalculation.

According to Koleib, “During the first few days of the uprising, Nasrallah announced his list of “no’s”, the most prominent of which was a “no” to forcefully topple the regime, “no” to force the government into resignation, and “no” to blocking roads”. In a subtle way, Koleib is indicating that even though President Aoun is still standing, the other redlines have all been crossed. The Hariri Government resigned, and roads are getting blocked on daily basis and Nasrallah has been thus far unable to do anything about it.

The black and white, tunnel-visioned crowd, who don’t know much about Hezbollah other than reading about its military achievements, have no idea at all that Nasrallah has never ever been challenged before, never backed down before, never made any concessions to his opponents, never seemed confused and uncertain about which way to go.

According to the same above-mentioned Koleib article, he sees that Hariri may be named to form the new cabinet, but he is currently playing the most dangerous game in his political life. Koleib is asking the question, “…will Hariri be permitted to play the role of a hero in which he regains all the international and regional Gulf-based support and thereby establishing a substantial local support base that will enable him to dictate his terms and return Hezbollah to the position of defense rather than attack?”

He later adds:” We are currently facing the following equation: Either that Hariri wins the bargain and manages to push all others to give concessions that will specifically make Hezbollah weaker, or that Hezbollah and its allies will move from the position of offence after being in the defensive, or that the crisis will continue..(for as long as God wishes)”.

So once again, especially for those whose vision is blurred by bias and lack of knowledge, the uprising in Lebanon is not about a choice between resisting Israel or to kowtow to its terms. It is not about loyalty to that Axis of Resistance. It is about people wanting justice and the restoration of their rights and dignity. And, they see that whoever stands in their way is unjust (to say the least). By turning a blind eye to criminal corruption, by being perceived as complicit, by challenging the uprising, it is most unfortunate, most unwise, that Hezbollah has put itself, in the eyes of the overwhelming Lebanese populace, as belonging to a particular basket; the infamous basket of the oppressors. Hezbollah must do everything possible within its power, and this is not the military prowess that we are talking about herein, but its power of good will and wise demeanour, to present in the most affirmative and convincing manner that it does not belong to this basket. This must include an admission of past mistakes and an undertaking never to repeat them again. The angry protestors will not settle for anything less if they accept to settle at all on such terms. Their voice is so strong it can no longer be ignored or sidelined.

It pains me to see the enemies of Hezbollah gleeful about seeing it wedged in this position, but Hezbollah cannot get out of this rut by being in denial. Hezbollah’s history is that of a liberator; not an oppressor; and it must restore its image. Its rightful place is in the basket of liberators.

HEZBOLLAH'S UNCHARTERED FRONTIER TURNING BOGGY. By Ghassan Kadi, 13 November 2019

Some more thoughts of Ghassan Kadi on the events happening in Lebanon.

https://thesaker.is/hezbollahs-unchartered-frontier-turning-boggy/

Hezbollah’s Unchartered Frontier Turning Boggy:

10405 ViewsNovember 13, 2019 14 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog

Four weeks on, the street protestors in Lebanon are not showing any signs of relenting; and neither is the government. An activist has been killed by a Lebanese Army bullet during an attempt to close the southern coastal highway that links Beirut with Saida. This incident occurred almost 24 hours after a televised interview of President Aoun in which he said that, if some Lebanese don’t like the situation in Lebanon, they can leave. This was interpreted as a call for them to emigrate, sending tens of thousands angrily to the streets and escalating the protests to an unprecedented level across the small country. And, even though PM Hariri has offered his resignation a fortnight ago or so, President Aoun is holding on firmly to his presidential seat, not contemplating resignation, any more than calling to dissolve the Parliament.

The protests so far, seemingly remain headless, and without very clear objectives other than the slogan “Killon Yaani Killon”, and which means “all of them means all of them”; implying that their revolt is against all Lebanese politicians without any exception. So although they do not have a formal list of demands and spokespersons, the protestors are asking not only for the cabinet to resign, but also that of the President, the Speaker of the House (Berri) and for Parliament to be dissolved and putting a ban on all existing politicians from rerunning for office. They are also calling for holding officials to account and having their loot reimbursed to the people.

Nearly a week ago, a clean, personal reliable source, close to government officials, a personal friend who is a former Lebanese Ambassador, told me what is now common knowledge. He told me that Hariri will be re-appointed to form a new cabinet of technocrats from the outside of the Parliament. I told him this proposal was not plausible. According to this model, President Aoun and Speaker Berri will keep their positions and Parliament would not be dissolved. Another version of this model was contemplated but with a different figurehead to lead rather than Hariri. Either way, it is highly doubtful that the protestors will accept this as a partial win. They will not see it as a win at all. To add insult to injury, in an unsavoury twist, Aoun, in an interview to LBC TV, stated that he cannot form a cabinet comprised of total independents. He exclaimed to the journalist: “Where do you expect me to find independents? On the moon?
He was therefore alleging that all Lebanese people have a certain political inclination or another. https://www.facebook.com/LBCILebanon/videos/421437568541547/ . The impact of this statement fell like a bombshell, especially that demonstrators are exhibiting all sings of independence from politics; under the slogan of “Killon Yaani Killon”, as they are asking for everyone to be removed.

In my previous two articles, http://thesaker.is/the-lebanese-fall-hezbollahs-latest-challenge/ & http://thesaker.is/hezbollahs-unchartered-frontier/ I have emphasized how Hezbollah is losing popularity as a result of this impasse. As a matter of fact, the anti-Hezbollah rhetoric is on the increase faster than I predicted, and thus far, in the eyes of the protesters, chairman Nasrallah has done little to curb the growing tsunami that is increasingly threatening his position and standing; even within the ranks of his own demographic heartland.

A recorded audio has been shared on social media of an alleged Hezbollah fighter addressing Nasrallah. https://www.facebook.com/333297347057781/posts/1197045050683002?vh=e&d=n&sfns=mo

In a 6 minute harangue, he is telling Nasrallah that he is proud of his personal past, having fought Israel and the internal enemies of Hezbollah in the streets of Beirut in May 2007. He asks Nasrallah why has he turned away from his principles and is suddenly supporting Hariri (a former political adversary). He added that if he sees a single drop of innocent blood shed on the streets, he will give up his weapons and leave Hezbollah. The alleged soldier is pleading with Nasrallah and informing him, that for the first time ever, there are people within the Shiite demographics who are criticizing Nasrallah and even swearing at him.

Whether or not this audio recording is genuine or some Hollywood production, facts are that people of different walks of life are expressing feelings of being let down by Nasrallah, and the number of street protests in Hezbollah heartland is gaining momentum.

But, what Al-Akhbar News reports, cannot be the work of Hollywood. Al-Akhbar has been a staunch supporter of Hezbollah and the axis of resistance ever since its inception. For Al-Akhbar to publish an article titled “A Letter to Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah” in a manner that critiques his decision making in regard to the street uprisings is an unprecedented development on the resistance axis media scene https://al-akhbar.com/Politics/278696. When one’s own supporters express dissatisfaction, one ought to stop and have a look at what one is doing or not doing. Nasrallah is not showing any signs of implementing any change.

I said it before in my last article and I will say it again. This is not a fight that Hezbollah has trained for. As a resistance force, Hezbollah transmits its power from grass root support, and if it loses this support, its foundations that underpin will be shaken.

There are now even talks about Hezbollah’s role in the actual corruption. Only two weeks ago or so, the major criticism and discussion was as to how Hezbollah could turn a blind eye to corruption. Now, it is alleged that the biggest financial benefactor of corruption has been Hezbollah. Traditionally, politicians and/or their cronies control different ministries and infrastructures and collect corruption money in the form of bribes, commissions, price fixing, monopolies, profit shares and so forth. Allegedly, Hezbollah has been collecting protection money from all involved. This includes different utilities, department of roads, the airport and sea port of Beirut, customs, you name it.

In a televised speech recorded on the 11th of November, Nasrallah has absolved himself and Hezbollah of any members who could be corrupt and openly declared that he will not offer any Hezbollah member impunity if accused and found guilty of corruption https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrHD7Xh1LJs&feature=share . It appears that the angry street protestors do not want to hear this, not caring or perhaps believing what Nasrallah intends to do now as much as what he did not do earlier. They are more focused currently on the most offensive statements made by Aoun a day later. Either way, such accusations have never, ever been made against Hezbollah in the past; not even by its most aggressive political enemies. Previous attacks had always been aimed at its military prowess and having a private army and a “state within the state”, but corruption per se was not on the attack agenda.

Again, it appears Nasrallah is not showing any signs of wanting to dialogue or to compromise. The above-mentioned anonymous person behind the audio recording is asking him, “why are you doing what you are doing? Is it simply because you won’t back down on a statement you made? Is your word more important to you than the blood of Lebanese people?” He was a tad short of referring to Nasrallah as being arrogant.

There is a fork in the road, whether chairman Nasrallah is prepared to recognize it or otherwise. And, by sticking to the default rules of engagement that he is familiar with at all levels, he will may well soon find himself in a situation that is out of control and untenable. If all the current indications are indeed accurate pointers, then it is quite possible that the out-of-control status has already been reached.

Such a scenario does not only impose danger on the future and longevity of Hezbollah as a resistance group, but also on the personal safety of Nasrallah himself. After all, targeted killings in Gaza at the hands of the IDF are all a result of treasonous actions of on-the-ground hired Palestinian informers who pass on to Israel who is where and when. Israel does not have eyes on the ground, except for the eyes of such agents; Palestinians who are prepared to give out locations of Hamas leaders for a bagful of silver.

In contrast, Hezbollah has this far enjoyed immaculate loyalty from its rank-and-file. But what if cracks start to appear? Will the safety of Nasrallah be compromised? Will the discretion on military matters also become at risk?

Some may argue that the assassination of Hezbollah’s Imad Moghnieh back in 2007 was the result of in-house treason. It wasn’t, and that is how strong Hezbollah has thus far been. I will not say more about this other than saying that it was an act of treason, but not one that was perpetrated by Hezbollah.

The cycle of rise and fall is a natural process, and every entity is subject to it. Sometimes the fall is a question of choice and a matter of resignation and resolve, rather than defeat; a diversion following the reaching of milestone targets. After all, the French Resistance lost its pretext to exist after the Nazis were driven out of France. In Lebanon however, even though Hezbollah has driven Israel out, realistically speaking, the need and role of a deterrent force to thwart any future assaults cannot be over looked. Israel thrives on expanding, and it is in dire need of more fresh water resources; something that the Lebanese south is rich of.

Here is a big question: If Hezbollah hypothetically disarms willingly, will Israel respect the integrity of Lebanon? And if the answer is no, who will protect Lebanon after Hezbollah ceases to exist? No one can answer this question, and Israel cannot and will not give affirmative answers and promises that can be taken seriously. After all, Israel has broken so many international laws, so many accords and a countless number of UNSC resolutions that it cannot be trusted by Arabs any more than the American Government can be trusted to uphold its treaties with Native Americans.

Voices within Lebanon asking for the disarmament of Hezbollah on the other hand, have their own logic to put on the table. They are asking for the enactment of one law for all and that there should be only one army in Lebanon; the legitimate Lebanese Army. The problem with this lot is that they by-and-large either have a history of being Israeli pawns, or pawns of the Saudis who are the bed-fellows of the American/Israeli roadmap, and which in reality is nothing short of giving Israel security at the expense of the rights of Palestinians to say the least.

When I state “to say the least”, this is meant to indicate that the policy of expansion is an integral part-and-parcel of the Israeli military “culture” that has been put into practice not only in Palestine, but also Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. The danger of Palestinian rights being sidelined therefore can be followed by a further sidelining of the rights of other Arabs; in this case those who are Lebanese.

Back to Lebanon then.

There is no doubt in my mind that, until and if the Arab/Israeli deadlock is resolved, one way or the other, Lebanon needs to be prepared for the worst, and no party can protect the country to this effect better than Hezbollah. If Israel wants to change the situation of the stalemate with its neighbours, if it wants real and just peace, it will need to present itself in a manner that guarantees that it can be trusted. It will have to, first and foremost, offer justice for Palestinian people and present clear actions of good will to other Arab states, however, there is no indication that it ever will.

The issue here is that Hezbollah has risen to its position based on awareness of the danger, courage to stand up against it, building an adequate popular support base, devoting a deep level of diligence in order to rise to the task against all odds, train, equip, prepare and fight and win; not only once….

The USA and Israel have the military might to nuke all of Lebanon and reduce it to a crater, literally remove it from the map and move the coastline east. But to actually physically disarm Hezbollah against its will, they cannot; and Nasrallah knows this too well. But this should not generate a false sense of security, because Nasrallah must also see and realize that no empire is immune to Trojan Horses.

Nasrallah holds the key in letting Trojan Horses in or keeping them out. Currently, it appears he is taking for granted that he can keep them out, despite much recent evidence showing the potentiality of the contrary; a type of dissent that can generate Trojan Horses. Dare I say that he holds the key until further notice, and he should not allow this key to drop from his hand.

People in Lebanon want new faces. They want to hear apologies in action, apologies that work and they don’t want to hear excuses for failure. All that Nasrallah needs to do is to admit that he has done serious mistakes by holding on to his alliance with Aoun and co, that he should have stepped in and done something about the corruption long before the uprising began, and that he should not have engaged in politics in the first place. He should offer a serious apology to the Lebanese people and go back underground. Personally I see no other way out of this trap set for him.

Whatever the uprisings in Lebanon lead to, it seems unlikely that Lebanon will return to its former status quo. Power brokers in Lebanon will have to adjust or vanish; and Hezbollah is not an exception. If there is foreign intervention in the street protests as some claim, and if conspirers are constructing a trap for Hezbollah, Nasrallah is walking right into it. He needs to take a diversion, unpalatable even as it may be. Hezbollah’s unchartered frontier requires new strategies and Nasrallah needs to adapt and respond before it is too late.

HEZBOLLAH'S UNCHARTERED FRONTIER By Ghassan Kadi 31 October 2019

Ghassan Kadi's carefully considered, yet most frank essay, on the events unfolding in Lebanon and the possible implications.

https://thesaker.is/hezbollahs-unchartered-frontier/

Hezbollah’s Unchartered Frontier

12769 ViewsOctober 31, 2019 24 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog

Following the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in June 1982, Lebanon looked like it had totally lost its independence and ability of self-determination. Later on, and with Israeli boots still on Lebanese ground, the Lebanese government was coerced to reach the 17th of May (1983) peace accord with Israel; and which was in reality tantamount to terms of surrender.

By then, the underground resistance, known back then as “The Lebanese Resistance”, was launched, and it was already causing much concern for the Israeli occupiers. As for the 17th of May accord, the then Lebanese President, Amin Gemayel, found himself between a rock and a hard place; supporters of the accord and those against. And even though back then the supporters were a political and military majority, Gemayel did not want to be remembered in the books of history as the President who surrendered to Israel, and refused to ratify the accord.

What happened afterwards is now history. The resistance gained momentum, and with all the might of the Israeli army and the large number of local Lebanese militia that collaborated with it, Israel had to leave Lebanon defeated in April 2000.

This epic victory couldn’t have happened without two men; President Hafez Assad and Hassan Nasrallah.

Hezbollah was a small organization back in 1982 and Nasrallah was not the founding leader. He became the leader after founding leader Abbas Al-Musawi was killed by Israel in 1992. Nasrallah has been the leader ever since, and has managed to evade many would-be assassination attempts and many disasters that would undermine the sovereignty and integrity of not only Lebanon, but also Syria.

This is not meant to be a historical narrative. The stops I shall make are meant to be those pertinent to the standing of Hezbollah and how it is perceived by the Lebanese community.

Hezbollah has had thus far three major victories. The first was the afore-mentioned victory over Israel in 2000 when the Israeli army was made to retreat from Lebanon unconditionally. Never before had Israel ever left occupied Arab land unconditionally. This is not to mention that southern Lebanon is rich in water, something Israel lacks and is in dire need for. The defeat was so humiliating that Israel had to save face, calling it a “tactical withdrawal”.

The second victory came in July 2006 when the Israeli incursion and massive bombing of Lebanon did not result in any Israeli gains and Israel again withdrew from Lebanon under heavy casualties; including marine casualties.

The third victory was in Syria where Hezbollah played a huge role in staving off the attack on its Syrian ally.

For any Lebanese or Arab to even attempt to take away from Hezbollah its achievements is tantamount to national treason; and I cannot make this statement more vehemently.

With the Arab World divided on lines based on foundations essentially that of capitulation and accepting the American/Israeli roadmap, and that of the opposite dipole of independent decision-making, it is not a surprise therefore that Hezbollah has been gaining momentum in the hearts and minds of Arabs of the so-called resistance axis.

In my previous article, http://thesaker.is/the-lebanese-fall-hezbollahs-latest-challenge/, I predicted that the current widely popular uprising in Lebanon can eventually be diverted by the enemies of Hezbollah in order to transform the anger against corruption into anger against the political ally of the government; ie Hezbollah. In a matter of a few days since, this prediction is taking form. There has been increasing criticism of Hezbollah for allegedly turning a blind eye to the burgeoning state of corruption in the government.

Nasrallah addressed the issue recently in a televised speech. His words however fell short of generating a sense of satisfaction in the protesters, even from many protagonists of the axis of resistance. Deep down inside, even many of the staunchest supporters of Hezbollah believe that it has seriously overlooked the consequences of its silence in regards to the three years of extreme corruption of the Aoun tenure.

Cartoons showing president Aoun on his presidential chair with Nasrallah as his shadow are circulating on social media. There are rallies in heartlands of Hezbollah, expressing utter dis-satisfaction with the government. A close friend of mine who wishes not to be named told me that “Nasrallah should understand that protecting the integrity of a country is not restricted to guarding its borders against invaders, but also guarding its economy and domestic wellbeing”. He added that ”…even though Nasrallah was exemplary in protecting Lebanon’s state borders from Israel, he allowed for the economic borders, the infra-structure borders and the public services borders of Lebanon to be breached and looted dry from within by his corrupt political allies”.

There are unconfirmed stories alleging that there are $800 Bn worth of looted money banked in Swiss accounts by corrupt Lebanese politicians. If true, this would constitute a massive figure by any standards, let alone that of a country of 4.5 million citizens. What seems to be certain is that the central bank (Banque Du Liban) has only $11-12 Bn out of the $120 Bn that local banks have deposited.

The domestic and international enemies of Hezbollah and the axis of resistance are already using everything in their armament to turn the anger of the Lebanese people against Hezbollah. They are digging up skeletons such as a video interview of Nasrallah back in 1982, long before he became Hezbollah chairman, and circulating it on social media, in which Nasrallah says that Hezbollah’s ideology is based on establishing a Muslim state in Lebanon, adjunct to Iran. And, even though Nasrallah has made many statements later on that emphasize the importance of plurality and unity of Lebanon, that dated video is the one stealing the show right now.

At this juncture, it must be stated that even most of the staunchest supporters of the axis of resistance do not want for Lebanon to become a religious state by any definition.
In more ways than one, Hezbollah, and Nasrallah in particular, have taken on board too many agendas to juggle; that of an anti-Israel resistance spearhead, a political power in Lebanon, and according to many, a Shiite religious agenda, or at least a commitment to empower the minority Shiite sector of Lebanon.

The truth of the matter is that any two of the above three are incompatible with each other, let alone all three, and for as long as Hezbollah seemingly clings to all of them, it is creating the Achilles Heel that can lead to its own undoing.

Unlike the IRA, Hezbollah does not have a separate political wing. And unlike Gerry Adams who represented Sinn Fein, Nasrallah represents both, the military as well as the political side of Hezbollah; and also the religious. He therefore has put himself in a situation in which he cannot distance himself from any actions and/or decisions that can or may backfire.

Politics is a dirty quagmire, and Lebanese politics in particular is dirtier than most, if not the dirtiest. If Hezbollah wanted to remain above it and with the sole objective to protect Lebanon’s southern borders, being involved in politics was not essential for its survival.

By entering the world of politics, Hezbollah had to play by the rules of the Lebanese ruling Mafia. And even though Nasrallah said on many occasions that the military might of Hezbollah will only be used against Israel, in reality it isn’t and wasn’t. To begin with, there is a haunting and daunting feeling within Lebanon that Hezbollah will forcefully crush any potential move to disarm it. Secondly, when the political opposition threatened to control the streets in May 2007, Hezbollah made a pre-emptive move. This was not a wise decision, even though it was followed by an almost immediate surrender of its positions to the Lebanese Army. In the minds of many Lebanese, this remains till now, a dark point in the history of Hezbollah; one that is replayed and replayed to remind people of how determined Hezbollah can be if challenged. As mentioned in the previous article, after this event, Hezbollah irreversibly lost a huge chunk of its Sunni support base.

It can be argued that the amazing military victories Hezbollah scored made it complacent, even perhaps too self-assured. But this again has been another unwise move. Unless a popular resistance force does all it can to maintain its popularity and grass-roots support, it can easily fall into a state of rot, leading to its own demise.

Hezbollah has many lethal domestic and international enemies that failed to defeat it militarily, and now they are trying different ways to crack its spine.

Leading up to this, Hezbollah managed to establish an iron-curtain in regard to its modus operandi. Nasrallah is rarely seen in public, and when he appears in public, his appearance is never pre-announced. All security measures are always taken to guarantee his safety, and even the “army” units themselves are invisible, even during war; and this was what drove the invading Israelis up the wall fighting an “invisible enemy”.

Yet with all of those precautions, Hezbollah entered the domain of Lebanese politics from the most vulnerable vantage point.

At this juncture again, with the Lebanese Government facing a most uncertain future, and likely to end up in chaos, perhaps even anarchy, or at the most hopeful scenario, holding thieving politicians accountable and having their loot confiscated, Hezbollah needs to have a second take at its political venture in Lebanon and decide to go totally underground. If it doesn’t, it may find itself facing a battle it is not prepared to fight; one that it can easily lose.

Two weeks into the uprising, and apart from the resignation of PM Hariri, there are no signs of any relenting on President Aoun’s side. The street protests are escalating despite purported thuggish attempts to stifle them. This uprising is in fact Lebanon’s revolution of the silent majority, the majority that did not partake in the 1975-1989 civil war and all conflicts thereafter. Its ranks seem to have already been penetrated by various domestic, regional and international parties with vested interests as some claim. There are many rumours floating around; rumours of the Lebanese American Embassy recruiting people with little or no experience and no clear job qualifications, rumours of Soros investing $600 m in the uprising, rumours of $150 as a daily stipend for every demonstrator, and the truth is that no one knows if any of such rumours or others are accurate.

There are even rumours and photos circulating on social media of alleged Hezbollah members bashing and terrorizing peaceful demonstrators. Whatever the facts, such images are causing untold damage to the stand, popularity and integrity of Hezbollah.

There is a legitimate reason for the Lebanese to rise up against their government, and irrespective of the final outcome, the silent majority has finally spoken, and Hezbollah must find its way to regain its support base if it wants to survive this ordeal.

And to survive it, the leadership of Hezbollah ought to go back to the rationale behind its own raison d’être as a resistance force. Popular resistance is one of people against an oppressor. Currently, the majority of Lebanese people see their politicians as their oppressors. They are not currently looking beyond their southern borders, nor looking at the potential danger of Israeli aggression. They are worried about survival. They are demanding an end to the thieving of politicians and the restoration of services like water, electricity and fuel. They want their dignity and financial security back, and alarmingly they are increasingly seeing Hezbollah as a part of their problem; not the solution.

In Lebanon, sectarian measures are always used to gauge political opinion, and in this respect, Hezbollah has reached wide popularity among all Muslims with nearly all Shiites and perhaps up to 70-80% of Sunnis supporting it especially after the outcomes of the July 2006 war with Israel. At that time, perhaps at least 50% of Lebanese Christians supported it too. After the events of May 2007, the Shiite support remained unwavered, but the Sunni support slumped to something like 50% with some decrease in popularity among Christian Lebanese. The recent corruption of the Aoun government coupled with the street uprising has enhanced the percentage of the anti-Hezbollah sentiment among Sunnis and Christians, and for the first time ever, street action has shown anger against Hezbollah even in Shiite areas. All up, and based on an educated guess only, from a national support based of at least 65-70% back in 2006, the tally has seemingly now dropped to 40-45%. This is a serious development and Hezbollah leadership ought to be aware of it.

In hindsight, Hezbollah should not have taken any political role in Lebanon. Rather, it should have stayed totally as an underground movement and force. After all, the political cover did not give it any “protection”. It was its own military might that guaranteed its survival on the ground in Lebanon. Perhaps it is time for Hezbollah to retrace its past steps, be humble enough to accept that it has made mistakes, put the euphoria of military victories aside for a moment and learn from the serious political mistakes it has committed.

This is an unchartered frontier for Hezbollah; a battle that it might not have either trained or prepared itself for. It may turn out to be its ultimate challenge.