Sunday, July 23, 2017
OUR EARLIER WARNINGS ABOUT ORIENTALISTS, GATEKEEPERS, EVANGELISTS AND SUBVERTERS OF THE SYRIAN ONLINE MOVEMENT. By Intibah Kadi, 23 July 2017
Monday, July 17, 2017
CHEHADEH WARNS OF THE DANGERS PRECISELY AS GHASSAN KADI HAD OVER A YEAR AGO By Intibah Kadi 17 July 2017
By Intibah Kadi"17 July 2017
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Tuesday, July 11, 2017
THE MUSLIM SPRING TAKE II By Ghassan and Intibah Kadi 6 July 2017
THE MUSLIM SPRING TAKE II
By Ghassan and Intibah Kadi
http://thesaker.is/the-muslim-spring-take-ii/
The Muslim Spring, take II
by Ghassan and Intibah Kadi
In a previous article titled “A Muslim Spring” published on the Saker, on the 12th of June 2017, the analysis of the then recent Qatar standoff took us into the direction of whether new Middle Eastern alliances were taking form and old ones dismantling.
Developments since then reveal that the distinctive parts of the new embryos are already differentiating and emerging. The initial article foresaw the formation of two new alliances in this manner:
1. Team One: America/NATO, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE and perhaps Egypt.
2. Team Two: Russia, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, Turkey, Qatar and perhaps Egypt.
If the roles are played properly, “Team Two” is potentially a dream team, but realistically, it carries a latent danger; the unpredictability of Erdogan and the fact that he cannot be trusted.
The divisions are deepening and the polarizations are becoming more plausible by the day as team members grow closer. What the initial article was unable to analyse adequately at its early mark in time, was the stand of Saudi Arabia and the USA from one end, and that of Turkey from the other. It wasn’t till recently that it became clear that the USA is not trying to find a way to include Turkey, or at best appease it, but in fact is targeting Turkey and pushing it into a corner, with a bit of help from the hapless Saudi allies.
The USA has realized it can no longer achieve its ambitions in the region by working with Turkey and has now made the relationship with Saudi Arabia its key pivot to salvage what’s left of any hope to score a win in the region. If a win cannot be achieved, at least the mischievous duo will try to prevent Syria and Russia from clinching their win.
After the many warnings that Erdogan has given the USA, that the USA has to choose between being an ally of Turkey or an ally of the Kurds, the difference in aspirations and interests was insurmountable, and the USA seems to have made up its mind, albeit covertly, and decided to dump Turkey seeking its own agenda in Syria; which is totally incompatible with that of Turkey. Erdogan knows this, and he is not going to take this sitting down.
The unprovoked and unwarranted Saudi and GCC sanctions against Qatar, which came almost immediately after the historic and infamous Saudi-Trump visit, was the final pilot light that the USA and Al-Saud lit up in order to test how the new alliance is panning out. But the aim of that move was not only to punish Qatar for its own stand on its relationships with Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood, but to also put Erdogan on the spot, given that Turkey has a small military base in Qatar; and hence would see any intervention in Qatar as tantamount to meddling with Turkey.
Turkey on its part, was more than happy to be virtually offered a new export market on a silver platter, in which (together with Iran) all of Qatar’s needs were met, mainly food, which Qatar produces none of. But in capitalizing on the export opportunity, Erdogan has given the Saudis and Americans a message not to mess with him, and that he knows what they are doing.
This whole scenario has the hallmarks of America’s last ditched attempt to take victory away from Syria; however, in doing so, the Americans are in fact giving Erdogan an excuse to act solely on Turkish interests, even if this means military confrontation with pro-American forces on the ground; ie the Kurdish PYG, and perhaps even US troops down the track.
What cannot be overemphasized, no matter how much this statement is repeated almost in every article over the last year or so, Erdogan will never allow an independent Kurdish state to be created south of his border. Even if the events in Syria had taken a different turn a few years back and had Syria lost to the terrorists, and even if the Russian and Iranian help did not come and Syria had capitulated and was shredded to pieces, Erdogan still wouldn’t have allowed for an independent Kurdish state to be created south of his border. As it has been reiterated in several articles on many occasions two years ago or so when Erdogan had the upper hand in northern Syria, his whole objective of wanting to create an 80 km wide buffer zone, was in fact to dislocate the Kurds and replace them with Syrian refugees who were already in Turkey and loyal to him. With that plot foiled, he has no other current choice but to work with Syria and Russia on his common objectives with them, or act solely and have a much bigger and more insidious plan.
The one thing that must be kept in mind is that Turkey has a formidable army; a mighty force to be reckoned with. As a NATO member, Turkey has the second largest ground force after the USA, and if Sultan Erdogan moves his troops south in a big way, depending on how the “Dream Team” alliance is drawn, if there is such team at all, and how the strategies and tactics are established and who can guarantee(s) them, there is no telling as to how far he will go.
Being stubborn and self-conceited on one hand, and highly ambitious on the other, Erdogan is not one to be trusted, neither by Russia nor by Syria. He may even feel too humiliated to join efforts with Syria after his long history of hostility towards her President and people, and decide to go back to his original dream of 2011 and move into Syria himself against the Kurds, and even perhaps against Syria and President Assad, and this time, without the “help” of the Saudis and Americans and their crony terrorists. After all, those former allies proved to be more of a liability to Erdogan than an asset, and this time around, he would be after Al-Saud, using Syria as a corridor.
Yes, it is not at all unfathomable and unimaginable that the USA and Saudi Arabia are unwittingly pushing Erdogan to go as far south as Mecca and beyond. After all, has it not been his ambition to restore the Ottoman Empire? If anything, Erdogan would be praying that someone offers him a justification to put Mecca under Turkey’s control once again. His dismay with the Saudis may be utilized by him to generate a wave of discontent within the Muslim World against the custodians of the holiest of all Muslim shrines, focusing on how they have allowed the holy land to be subdued by American “infidels”, and hence use this as a pretext to launch a major offensive.
The irony here is that America will not be able to come to the help of Al-Saud without risking a huge wave of protest in the Muslim World. If Al-Saud find themselves having to ask America to protect Mecca from a Turkish invasion, they would be signing their own death warrant, because non-Muslims are not allowed in the area.
Erdogan may alternatively not go all the way to Mecca and resurrect his previous plan to create the 80 km buffer zone. Either way, if Turkey moves a huge number of troops into Syria in an all-out onslaught, the Syrian Army will not be able to resist it for long, and Russia will be forced to either escalate her presence, risking a confrontation with Turkey, or seek another alternative which is not foreseeable at this stage.
As for Israel, it is on good terms with Turkey, and in the event of a massive Turkish invasion east of its border, it will sit back and watch, and if anything sigh with relief to see Turkey “cleaning up a mess” that no one else could in this magnitude.
Iran will find itself in a difficult dilemma. On one hand, it will be happy to see Al-Saud getting hammered by Turkey, but its relationship with Syria will stipulate that it will have to decide to either confront Turkish troops, or find some other resolution.
Will a compromise resolution mean allowing Turkish troops a corridor in eastern Syria, an interim corridor that reaches south deep into Saudi territory without having to encroach on Syria’s sovereignty in Damascus? At the moment, this scenario seems unlikely, but it cannot be zeroed out.
Egypt will probably sit back and watch, and at the end, join hands with the winner of it all. President Sisi will most likely stay disengaged; despite his current pro-Saudi stance, which is mainly in response to his discontent with Qatar harbouring Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood leaders.
This is why it must be said again, that much of what happens in Syria and to Syria, largely depends on Russia. At all possible cost therefore, the Kurdish situation must be contained, if it is not too late already, in order not to give Erdogan the excuse to act unilaterally. The first line of defence in averting this situation in the first place was to work with the Kurds to keep them away from striking deals with America and Israel. This could have been achieved by doing all that was possible to keep them under the roof of Damascus and thereby pulling the rug from underneath America’s and Israel’s feet. With rightful diligence, it is not too late to reverse this status quo, even though on the surface it looks like a fait accompli, but in reality, it shouldn’t be. But if time proves that this train had already been missed, Erdogan’s train must not be allowed to take off on its own.
For the “Dream Team” alliance to work and work effectively, the reins of the initiative must be jointly held by all the regional powers; namely Syria, Iran and Turkey; under Russian auspices and guarantee. This is the only way for the inter-secular Sunni/Shiite Muslim Spring to spring into success.
ISRAEL ALWAYS LOOKS FOR CREATIVE OPPORTUNITIES By Intibah Kadi, 11 July 2017
By Intibah Kadi
“The Alawites and Israel” and in the article says
“The current regime in Syria, terrified of a Sunni takeover, might appeal to the Jewish state for help…From personal contact with Alawites, I know that they are already beginning to discuss the possibility of appealing to Israel for help. If they do – and they probably will at some point – and the international community does not help them, Israel should step in to aid the Alawites, which would also mean helping their Shi’ite allies, who will by that point be similarly embattled .”
We have had other nefarious characters all the way from Moscow to parts of the USA come among us, trying to sow sectarian discord and lies, trying to spark a nightmarish Sunni-Shia war. This attempt of the Israeli academic really puts it all out there quite openly whilst others have been far more covert, or so they think!
The academic now works for a think tank associated with a Tel Aviv based university and appears to be climbing up the strategic ladder and that of national significance. He is one of the creative thinkers on how to advance Israel’s strategies.
That was obviously the plan for Syria as well!
This particular individual from a cult, the remaining friend of this Israeli academic, curiously, like a number of other proven nefarious characters, has cover and protection from a club who came as “friends” to defend Syria but who seem committed more to assuring their survival for their particular aims and objectives. At times we see them engaging in bizarre acts related to mutually assured support and no one dares ask the pertinent questions in case they get cauterized liked the Kadis did (and survived only to become stronger) in order to prevent the infection of “truth” spreading to those who need to hear it.
That cult member who remains on the Israeli academic’s list of friends, in the past became inconsolably hysterical when faced with the prospect of losing the money launderer of the project as he was being outed for his antics and wild stories. The most surprising was the reactions from a few others to this unravelling and, that is when the red flag went up. A host of other “friends” of Syria came from nowhere, like angry wasps swatting at myself, Ghassan and others who were busy completing the parts of the jigsaw puzzle that we gained from the tall stories in the private messages we had been given. Predictably, in times of war and hardship, a “useful boy” can be found who feels no concern about collaborating with these characters for as long as he got what he needed. Some others who used him no longer are allowed visas for Syria and others are under investigation.
The second one this Israeli operative academic kept has a Facebook profile adorned with Syrian flags and a Jewish sounding surname who also, like the cult member, has been busy defending the many shady and questionable “friends” of Syria in what seems to be a “you scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours” arrangement.
Why, whenever nefarious characters emerge and are exposed, a particular grouping of “friends” of Syria rush to protect them aggressively, is anybody’s question, as the variety and contradicting sets of agendas these “supporters” possess is mind blowing and mind boggling. The mutual support they display indicates a banding together to protect their individual agendas from being exposed, and they morphed into what is best described as soldier ants! Their attempts to silence and shut down patriots who obstruct their paths is futile and will only backfire as they fumble and make mistakes under the covert gaze of those patriots with keen observation skills.
As with the Israeli academic’s strategies, it is all about getting into the heart of the country and its institutions, via social media contacts, finding recruits, getting on with the sneaky divide and rule tactics, in order to achieve whatever aim has been set. We have seen other examples of “friends” coming to us, whispering words we want to hear but in private uttering ugly sectarian words, and being completely caught out and then defended by the cohort group.
Very strange “friends” of Syria indeed, “friends” for the unaware or naïve only!
Monday, July 3, 2017
SYRIA'S ONCE AVOIDABLE NEW BATTLE By Ghassan Kadi 3 July 2017
Syria’s once avoidable new battle
by Ghassan Kadi
In an article published on the Saker titled “Kurdish Autonomy; Partition or Masterplan”, and as the unsavoury prospect of establishing an independent Kurdish state in Syria was taking form, I emphasised that this scenario is avoidable, and at worst, if it had to happen, and if all cards were played correctly, then a seemingly impending disaster could be turned around and that any potential harm could be mitigated. The first of many conditions I had put for this turn around to be successful, was that Syrian Kurds should stay under the roof of Damascus.
I warned loudly of the dire consequences of any resolution of the Kurdish issue going wrong. At the end of the day, I can only be responsible for my words, and not for how certain people may misunderstand them, or even worse, deliberately twist them to make them sound like they mean the opposite. On that note, and in hindsight, just like I warned, these Kurds should have been induced to stay under Damascus’s umbrella, and take advantage of the situation to bolster loyalty to Syria and national unity. Instead, we are now looking at a clear and present danger of having an independent Kurdish state being established under the auspices of Washington instead of Damascus.
Whether some Kurds – and not all are separatists – have been pushed into America’s nook or chose to, facts on the ground show all the signs of a would-be masterplan that has gone against, not for, the interests of Syria.
Over the last six years, each time Syria gained a new victory or came close to one, a new enemy arrived on the scene to set the war on a different course. Nothing is more despicable and transparent than the overt, uninvited and illegal entry of the USA and company on the ground in Syria. Syria and her allies were rapidly bringing ISIS to its knees and the war was coming to an end. Success after success ensued and after many unconfirmed news, recent reports emerged that Al Baghdadi has highly likely been killed by the Russian military and the mosque in Mosul where he declared his caliphate being abandoned and demolished by retreating ISIS terrorists.
At the analytical level, we need to unpack the various actions of the USA in Syria in order to make sense of their current aims, objectives and strategies, if any.
On one hand, the USA is fighting ISIS, and it is.
On another hand, the USA is helping ISIS by attacking the Syrian Army and Airforce among other things.
The USA has troops on Syrian ground, allegedly trying to fight ISIS only, but without the permission of the Syrian Government who has been fighting ISIS since its inception.
The USA is actively engaging with the Kurdish groups that they promised to assist with their separatist aspirations.
In reality however, the USA will not meet any of those above promises. America, especially Trump’s America, will only do what he deems is beneficial for America.
Much of what happens next in Syria is in the hands of Russia.
In its recent incursions inside Syria, the USA has been working on establishing difficult situations to resolve for both Syria and Russia. On the Syrian side, America is trying to add more variables to the “War on Syria” in an attempt to take Syria’s victory away, and on the other hand, the USA is trying to create a quagmire for Russia inside Syria.
America did not forget its successful strategy of bogging down the USSR in Afghanistan and how it managed to capitalise on this, including how the ensuing financial demise fuelled partly by this war crippled the USSR, enabling the USA to gain single world power status for at least three decades.
Seemingly, America is trying to turn Syria into Russia’s new Afghanistan. At the same time, America will do its best not to allow any party within Syria to score a real victory. And because America and the Syrian Government do not have any relationship with each other, America will use ISIS and the separatist Kurds to gauge its next steps. If ISIS is doing well, America will strike it, and if it isn’t, America will help it. This is America’s strategy which analytically-speaking is flawed. It is only based on creating a perpetual state of chaos and destruction that will continue to eat away at Syria.
It is patently clear that the USA has no interest to see peace established in the region and they make no attempts to conceal this fact. As has always been the case, they want destroyed, fragmented, failed states in the region with amenable, puppet rulers installed.
On the pessimistic side alone therefore, there is much to worry about. Many observers see that Syria could be on the cusp of getting fragmented and many pundits argue that the American plan to create a Kurdish state with the separatists is working.
Russia’s reluctance to engage directly against the US forces cannot be taken as a blanket reluctance to foil America’s plan and thereby allowing that plan to come to fruition. During the Cold War, America and Russia found many ways of engaging against each other indirectly, and they will probably find a way to do this in Syria without allowing the situation to escalate into an all-out confrontation between the two super powers.
But to avoid direct confrontation, both sides will need to find local allies, and if anything, the local allies of Russia are far bigger, stronger, and better prepared than those of America and this is the flipside that America does not seem to be taking into account.
To begin with, Russia can provide Syria with state-of-the-art defence and attack hardware and can train Syrian troops and allied troops to use them; and they have already done much of that. Much of such hardware, such as fighter jets, bombers, attack helicopters and tanks can only be handled by regular armies, and the USA will find it difficult to match such hardware by providing Kurdish militia with something equivalent.
Moreover, the Syrian defence coalition will not only include the Syrian Army with Russia on its side, but also Hezbollah, Iran, possibly Iraq and even Turkey.
In other words, without direct American and Russian engagement, American-backed Kurdish separatists will have a mighty coalition standing up against them, and the odds will not be in their favour.
On the other hand, if America escalates its own direct involvement as it did by downing a Syrian fighter jet recently, apart from risking a direct confrontation with Russia, it too will risk getting bogged down and end up falling into the trap that was meant for Russia.
No one knows how this will pan out and how the lines will be drawn if a major escalation were to ensue, but to conclude that Russia is giving north Eastern Syria to America and the Kurds on a silver platter is quite immature and even naïve at best. To begin with, Russia has always maintained that it will not make decisions about Syria on behalf of Syria. Secondly, when Russia decided to take action in Syria back in September 2015, that action heralded the end of the so-called ‘New World Order’ in which the USA stood as the world’s single super power. Russia cannot and will not allow the clock to be turned back and risk her initiative in Syria to be hijacked by America.
With the fight against ISIS all but over and with Qatar too busy extracting itself out of its own mess, let alone to continue with its support to fighters within Syria, any new major confrontation on Syrian soil, if it happens, will take the “War on Syria” in a totally different direction and with new allies on the ground. The Syrian Army will always be fighting for Syrian sovereignty, and the separatist Kurds are no match.
A lot will depend on which way Turkey will go, and I have always maintained that Erdogan, the Islamist with a bullish attitude, is also a nationalist, and he will never accept to have a Kurdish state south of his borders. His interests are now ironically converging with President Assad’s, and if all parties on the ground who have a good reason for opposing the creation of a separate Kurdish state, work together, the American plot will fail.
To sum up, Syria is now tragically facing the prospect of a new war, before the old one finishes, and this is all because some Kurdish separatists have decided to side with the USA against Syria’s national interests. The pilot light was lit not just at the time the afore-mentioned article was written, but much earlier on when separatist Kurds took similar wrong decisions in Iraq and other places. The reality is that at each and every occasion, Kurds are not allowed to win, and they always pay for their mistakes by way of brutal retaliation. They will soon realise that America’s nook was really a noose in disguise.
What is more tragic is the fact that the area that is already taken over by Kurdish separatists and the American supporters is a lure for a Turkish invasion. If Erdogan decides unilaterally to send troops into Syria to abort the creation of a Kurdish state south of his borders, Syria will soon have to contemplate dealing with getting rid of those Turkish troops.
Syria’s once avoidable new battle is increasingly becoming less avoidable. How and when was this allowed to get out of hand? No one really knows. What I do know is that when I saw in the re-emergence of the Kurdish question an opportunity to address this dilemma once and for all, when I made a clear warning about not allowing an impending catastrophe to turn into a missed opportunity, I said what I believed was right, and more than a year later, my conscience is clear that I did the right thing.