“The Cold War” Over Syria…Will Remain Cold' Translation by Intibah and Ghassan Kadi re-published in Katehon Feb 2016

http://katehon.com/article/cold-war-over-syriawill-remain-cold

also published in Uprooted Palestinians

http://uprootedpalestinians.blogspot.com/2016/02/the-cold-war-over-syriawill-remain-cold.html

uesday, 16 February 2016

“The Cold War” Over Syria…Will Remain Cold By Sami Koleib

Introduction by Ghassan Kadi

This is an article that has been translated from Arabic by Intibah and me. It was published on today's Assafir (Lebanese daily) by Sami Koleib. He is a renowned pro-Resistance Lebanese journliast. He has made great analyses over the last few years and Intibah and I had the pleasure of translating some of his work.

In this article, he is articulating his views about the outcome of the huffing and puffing of Turkey and Saudi Arabia in regard to their threats of launching ground military operations in Syria. A highly recommended read.

“The Cold War” Over Syria…Will Remain Cold

By Sami Koleib

Assafir Lebanese Daily, 15 February 2016

Translated by Ghassan and Intibah Kadi

For the Russia Prime Minister, Dimitry Medvedev to say that the world is entering a cold war, he is declaring the status quo..and confirming what’s already confirmed. But to say it from Munich, this is the same place from which President Vladimir Putin began to stand up against Washington in his famous speech nearly eight years ago. And, for Medvedev to mention the Russian Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 to stop an American invasion, is only a reminder of the new red lines for any land invasion perpetrated by the enemies of the Syrian President Bashar Al Assad in Syria’s north, and specifically to any Saudi-Turkish gamble with a NATO cover.  The cold war is realistically under way, what’s new in it this time is that it is the Syrian scorched ground that decides its destiny..and it seems that various contacts made in the last few hours have focussed on putting the situation under control and prioritising on fighting terrorism.

What’s worthy of noticing in what Medvedev has said, and he is the one who alternates Presidency and Prime Ministership with Putin since the duo decided to return Russia to the world centre stage, that there is no end to this cold war except through American-Russian agreement.. as for the others, they are simply pawns. Most probably, reason will prevail in as far as the American-Russian relationships are concerned, otherwise the cold war will heat up.  Contrary to all posturing, threats made, Putin and Obama continued to communicate, two days ago, just like John Kennedy and Nikita Kruschev did back in 1962.  According to reliable European sources, the Russian President asked his American counterpart to “harness” Turkey so it would stop its bombardment of Kurds and Syrian military targets, and also, to downscale the Saudi rhetoric about direct military involvement in Syria. The wording of Putin carried a clear warning to both countries if Washington did not make a move along these lines.

We should also note that the White House took the initiative to contact Moscow and made a statement saying that President Putin renewed his assertion to form a united front against terrorism..and that the defense ministers of both countries will intensify their coordination..the rest are just pawns! Barack Obama has no interest at all to bestow upon his successor a new war just before he leaves office and, after all, he is the one who forged an agreement with “the apex of the axis of evil”, Iran, and made peace with the “outlaw state”, Cuba, in his own neighbourhood.  Putin also does not have any interest to create economic burdens that a new arms race will inflict. 

So why is Medvedev making his warning?

The current problem of the United States is not with its adversaries, it is with its allies.  Saudi Arabia and Israel have been feeling marginalised ever since the nuclear deal. They both see the West marketing a new Iran. Turkey, on the other hand, sees that America is bolstering its alliance with the Kurds and now has become prepared to accept that Bashar Al Assad remains in power..and his recapture of northern Syria.  It is an aberration for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the President of a NATO member State, to say to America, the leader of NATO, that their policies have turned the region into a pool of blood.

Have regional powers become able to declare mutiny on America and drag it into war?

Of course not, they can not revolt, but they are capable of kindling many fires unless Washington smacks them into obedience..and this is exactly what it is going to do.

According to some sources, American and European discussions have been intensified with all relevant regional parties.  This is essential, especially that Tehran has offered two responses: the first of which is a warning saying that the response will be very harsh and may hit the heart of Saudi Arabia, and that the Saudi forces will suffer a huge defeat if it gets involved, and the second one is by extending the hand of friendship to Riyadh via the words of Foreign Minister Muhammad Jawwad Zarif, the star of Western media since the nuclear accord.  Zarif said, “by cooperating with our brothers in Saudi Arabia and Turkey, we can resolve all regional problems and issues”.

Similar words were echoed by the Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Jubair in saying: “we are pleased to have good relationships with Iran, but they have to take serious steps and stop intervening in our affairs”, and as usual repeating his mantra that Assad will fall politically or militarily in the end. The pertinent point here is that the further north the Syrian Army moves, Saudi Arabia needs to repeat this mantra more often for domestic and regional reasons as well.

The statement that Syrian Foreign Minister, Walid Mouallem, made about the returning home of Saudis in coffins, is probably backed by joint Russian-Iranian determination to confront any foreign interference that has not been approved by both the Americans and the Russians under the clear mandate of fighting terrorism only.

Is it possible to slip into a wider war?

So far this seems unlikely, but however, some reliable sources argue that Saudi Arabia has made some plans for direct military action in Syria for a long time. Those plans were made before the big advances that the Syrian Army and its allies made in the north, but it had always felt that what the militants were doing was enough and that there was no need for that.  However, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are currently under great pressure and they are both looking for a role. What they seek is not essentially going into a war that Riyadh knows beforehand how much it is going to cost, what is sought however is to maintain a Saudi-Turkish role in what is planned for the future of Syria.

We should notice something very important: neither Turkey nor Saudi Arabia have thus far declared that they are embarking on their military intervention without a cover. They are both saying that this is all within an international plan to fight Daesh. For example, we see the Turkish Foreign Minister, Mouloud Jawish Oglu declaring that, “if there’s an anti-Daesh strategy then it becomes possible for Turkey and Saudi Arabia to launch a land operation”… The “if” the Jawish Oglu statement begins with is very pertinent.   In a similar manner Adel Jubair told CNN that, “Saudi Arabia is prepared to send special forces to join the coalition in a land operation in Syria”, in other words, taking part in a coalition under the auspices and direction of the United States.

The possible escalation is towards a wider war but not towards an all out war.

This is possible if one of these things happen: 

- if Saudi Arabia and Turkey get involved directly on the ground or in the air without an international cover.

-Putin made a clear warning two days ago, and Obama is quite unhappy about the Turkish bombardment of his Kurdish allies. Several American and European messages have been sent to Ankara in this regard.

-If Turkey shoots down Russian or Syrian planes over Syrian soil. But it seems that it would not dare do this any more.

-In the event of military confrontation between Israel and Iran, in either Syria or Lebanon, directly or via Hezbollah.

-If some intelligence apparatus commits a major assassination or a major explosion of significance.

What do Turkey and Saudi Arabia want?

Turkey and Saudi Arabia want for either the Syrian Army and its allies to stop moving north, and this has become impossible for them to achieve, or for them to get a role in future plans, as they both consider that the current period is very fortuitous for them to put pressure on American Democrats just before Presidential elections.  They will also accept to have forces in the “international coalition”, and this is what Assad has refused in his last interview in which he said that the war in the north aims for, “cutting the link between Turkey and Aleppo”… We can only imagine Erdogan’s face when he reads this statement, and as he is fighting an internal war with Kurds, and feels that things are falling out of his hands.

 What will the allies of Assad do?

-Putin will continue to give the West both biscuits and tranquilizer pills, as his fighter jets are delivering fire on the enemies of Assad. He will continue doing this irrespective of what happens, for he and Assad are both saying that the current peace negotiations have nothing to do with fighting terrorism.

-Iran will intensify its direct involvement or indirectly via Hezbollah in the Syrian war, all the while making sugar-coated statements to the Saudis, knowing beforehand, that this will upset the Saudis more than calm them, such statements however make Iran look good in the eyes of the West and serve as a good cover up for military action.

With this complex regional and international Syrian scene, the main questions are the following: what is the true American position towards Assad?, how far did the American-Iranian agreement reach?, what is the level of American-Russian agreement about Syria?

It seems that [Druze Lebanese political leader] Walid Jumblatt has got the hint.  He said that the world will give Aleppo back to Assad in the name of peace.  Undoubtedly he would have wished that hint wasn’t there and that he didn’t pick it up. The time of trying to topple Assad is gone. Fighting terrorism takes precedence. Future terrorism is going to be bigger and stronger. French Prime Minister, Manuel Valls said it very clearly in Munich when he stated that the Syrian Army is its most important opponent. There is little doubt that it enjoys tacit American support to move north. Obama will not allow anyone to drag him into a wider war before he leaves the White

 House.http://assafir.com/Article/474225

RAQQA OPERATION: US' POTENTIAL 'BARGAINING CHIP' IN POST-WAR TALKS OVER SYRIA IN POST WAR SYRIA By Ghassan Kadi 1 Dec 2016

Raqqa Operation: US' Potential 'Bargaining Chip' in Post-War Talks Over Syria

https://sputniknews.com/politics/201612011048044192-raqqa-us-syria-trump/

Raqqa Operation: US' Potential 'Bargaining Chip' in Post-War Talks Over Syria

14:00 GMT 01.12.2016 (Updated: 12:00 GMT 09.02.2023)

© REUTERS / Rodi Said

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Washington's much-discussed Raqqa operation is yet another attempt to intimidate Russia, make Russo-Syrian military operations more difficult to conduct, and to create a "bargaining chip" for future post-war negotiations, Syrian political analyst Ghassan Kadi told Sputnik.

Washington's direct involvement in the Raqqa operation is aimed at intimidating Russia and creating leverage in post-war negotiations, Syrian political analyst and expert in Middle Eastern affairs Ghassan Kadi suggested speaking to Sputnik.

Still, Donald Trump's win in the US presidential election is likely to complicate the situation for American war planners.

"With or without a post-Trump inauguration foreign policy shift, if it happens, America knows well that it cannot have a long-term military presence in Syria," Kadi highlighted.

Raqqa Operation and Kurdish Issue

"But there is more to the American operation. Your question in fact brings in the Kurdish issue. America is hoping to be able to slice a piece off Syria and create an independent Kurdish state, and this is perhaps its major long-term aim," the analyst noted, adding that "this is where American and Turkish interests come at odds."

"Apart from the dangers of Syrian partition and what comes with it, my personal concern about this is what human cost Syrian Kurds may end up paying. This is why I am with the firm view that the prospect of creating a Kurdish state is one that the Syrian government should attempt to prevent by means of negotiation with the Kurds. One has to bear in mind that unlike what some fire stokers are trying to do in way of inflaming anti-Kurdish passions, not all Kurds seek partition," Kadi told Sputnik.

The analyst reiterated that a win-win solution on the issue can be reached only through constructive talks.

"The only win-win outcome for the Syrian government and Syrian Kurds combined is one that can be achieved by negotiation, and under the clear understanding that every inch of Syrian soil will need to remain under the roof of Damascus as I have argued in the past," Kadi stressed.

However, with Trump taking over the reins of leadership in the White House, it will become harder for US strategists to drive a wedge between Damascus and the Syrian Kurds.

Trump's Win: Will US Finally Separate Moderate Rebels From Terrorists?

America's Rebalance: Trump's Election Opened Door to New Global Order

13 November 2016, 13:45 GMT

The Syrian analyst remarked that all depend on whether Trump will fulfill his election promises.

"How this will, or how this can, affect the situation in Syria will ultimately depend on the nature of the relationship President Trump will seek and manage to establish with Russia," Kadi underscored.

"And once again, thus far, Trump seems to be determined to seek better relationships with Russia. If this materializes, and if Trump acknowledges the underlying reasons behind the many failures of the Obama administration and decides to work together with Russia within Syria, then many sticking problems within Syria can be properly addressed and improved," the analyst pointed out.

Perhaps, Washington will finally disclose who the so-called moderate rebels are and where exactly they are located, he remarked.

Still, "Trump may even go a step further and announce that there are no such groups as moderate rebels and declare open season, and I think this is a likely prospect. Time will tell," Kadi noted.

The analyst assumed that the Russo-American partnership in Syria may pave the way for a US-Russian compromise on Ukraine.

Referring to the rise of French presidential hopeful Francois Fillon, the analyst called attention to the fact that Trump's win has apparently created a domino effect across Europe.

"Fillon seems to be on the same wavelength as his potential counterpart across the Atlantic," Kadi remarked.

"Trump's win may indeed herald a whole new age in American-EU-Russian inter-relationships," he believes.

Citing Trump's pragmatism, the analyst suggested that if the US President-elect implements a profit versus loss business model in his governance, "in this particular instance, he may end wars, albeit for financial reasons."

"A business-minded President who will only mind America's business and leaves the world alone is good enough for the whole world to take a sigh of relief," he stressed.

US soldiers stand near military vehicles, north of Raqqa city, Syria. File photo

© REUTERS / Rodi Said

'Syrian Interim Government': New Plan to Legitimize US' Intervention

A few days ahead of the US presidential election renowned American academic Steven Heydemann wrote an op-ed for The New York Times, calling for recognizing the SIG (Syrian Interim Government) based in Idlib as the legitimate interim government of Syria to justify and legitimize American intervention in the country.

US Planners Come Up With 'Plan C' to Bring Syria Under Control

6 November 2016, 15:10 GMT

"The White House should be concerned about handing the next president a Syrian crisis in which diplomatic possibilities have been all but foreclosed. These are concrete, practical steps it can take to equip the incoming administration with tools to regain leverage and revitalize diplomatic efforts to end Syria's bloody war," Heydemann argued.

Will the plan work?

"The article is quite obsolete in the sense that it was written before the American Presidential elections," Kadi noted.

"But this is not all: throughout history, it has always been the rule that the victor dictates the terms of post-war peace settlements; not the loser," he stressed.

"For nearly six years now since the 'War on Syria' started, a countless myriad of models based on the toppling, assassination and resignation of President Bashar al-Assad and replacing him have been proposed. None of them worked, even during the darkest hours of the President when all the chips were down," the analyst observed.

"Ironically, with the exception of [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan, all other regional and international leaders who made this call have either stepped down, passed away, were forced into retirement or imprisoned, or simply finished their terms, all the while Assad is still standing," he concluded.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Sputnik.

IN ALEPPO, 'RUSSO-SYRIAN ALLIANCE HAS THE UPPER HAND, WILL END UP VICTORIOUS' ' By Ghassan Kadi 1 Dec 2016

In  Aleppo, 'Russo-Syrian Alliance Has the Upper Hand, Will End Up Victorious'

https://sputniknews.com/politics/201612011048041667-aleppo-syria-russia/

In Aleppo, 'Russo-Syrian Alliance Has the Upper Hand, Will End Up Victorious'

09:30 GMT 01.12.2016 (Updated: 11:24 GMT 06.08.2022)

© AFP 2023 / GEORGE OURFALIAN

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While the Syrian Arab Army is making progress in Aleppo it has become clear that the West has no real leverage to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad or implement a no-fly zone in Syria, Syrian political analyst Ghassan Kadi told Sputnik.

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has made considerable progress in liberating Aleppo from terrorists by capturing more than a third of the territory held by jihadists in the eastern part of the city.

Given the current state of affairs, Moscow hopes that the situation in Aleppo could be resolved by the end of 2016, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov told RIA Novosti on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, terrorist groupings of Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (al-Nusra Front) and Daesh (ISIS/ISIL) continue to resist fiercely the SAA's advance.

"Armed formations of the Free Syrian Army have fired multiple launch rocket systems, mortars and small arms against al-Masharqa and Salah al-Din quarters in the Aleppo city. In the Aleppo province, terrorist groupings of Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (al-Nusra Front) and ISIS [Daesh] have fired multiple launch rocket systems, tube artillery, mortars and small arms against Shurfa inhabited area, Binyamin, Jamaiyah Faht, Dahiya al-Assad, Amri, Aqyul, Arian, Sheikh Said, Hai al-Andalus, Karen Jabal, Jabal Bidaru, Art Sabah and 1070 quarters, Hikma School, Kastello trade center, areas of paperboard factory and melon market in the Aleppo city," Russia's Ministry of Defense reported Wednesday.

However, the West's media sources continue to turn a blind eye to terrorists' actions on the ground in Aleppo, and portray the SAA's operation as a "brutal campaign" which could be "one of the biggest massacres of civilian population since World War II."

Aleppo has recently become Syria's major battle ground.

"It was inevitable ever since the 'War on Syria' started that the battle of Aleppo was eventually going to be the make-it-or-break-it for either side to score the final and overwhelming win," Ghassan Kadi, a Syrian political analyst and expert on Middle Eastern affairs, told Sputnik.

"Realistically, the Syrian Army would have been unable to engage at the current level in Aleppo without Russia's help," he continued.

US, Turkey Military Operations in Syria Are Intervention

28 November 2016, 07:16 GMT

"With the on-going influx of fighters and munitions coming in from Turkey, it was like sealing a leaking dam with one's own hands. And even though Erdogan is not yet true to his promises of sealing the borders, the Russian intervention on one hand gave Syria the upper hand, and on the other hand, Erdogan is now possibly getting serious about fighting ISIS [Daesh] because he now realizes that he has to work with Russia, and the only way for him to be able to have some control on the final outcome of the negotiation with/about the Kurds is to first take ISIS [Daesh] out of the equation," the analyst elaborated.

Russia and Damascus have come under heavy criticism from the West for their Aleppo operation. What lies at the root of the West's discontent?

"The Western discontent stems from the fact that the chaos they have created is getting cleaned up. I am not at all a believer in the West's ability to successfully mastermind and execute plans. Their history speaks for it. Their history is a series of failures all the way from Korea to Libya. Perhaps they have learned to accept that they are unable to achieve any concrete positive outcome anywhere, and that they need to focus on and settle for second best; i.e. creating chaos that will hurt their enemies. And if someone steps in to replace the chaos with order, they will fight him tooth and nail," Kadi pointed out.

Russia Hopes Situation in Aleppo Resolved by Year-End - Deputy Foreign Minister

30 November 2016, 07:57 GMT

Meanwhile, the SAA and the Free Syrian Army backed by Turkey are taking efforts to liberate the Syrian city of al-Bab from Daesh from the southeast and southwest respectively.

Since August 24 Turkey has been conducting the Euphrates Shield operation in northern Syria.

In his recent interview with Sputnik Brig. Gen. Samir Suleiman, Head of the Media Affairs of the Syrian Army's Political Office, dubbed Washington and Ankara's actions in the region as "interference in [Syria's] internal affairs, aggression and intervention."

For his part, Zekeriya Abdulmecit, a representative of the Army of Revolutionaries, part of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), told Sputnik on Friday that Ankara is allegedly planning to build a military base in northern Syria on territory captured during the ongoing Euphrates Shield operation.

"At the end of the day, once all military hostilities cease, Turkey will have to withdraw its troops from Syria (and Iraq), and I have no doubt that this will happen, and this is why America is banking on keeping a de facto presence by attempting to create an independent Kurdish entity," Kadi emphasized.

"At the moment, in my view, whilst acknowledging that other analysts may disagree, I believe that apart from the Saudis and Qataris, all other parties agree that ISIS [Daesh] needs to be defeated; including the ones who are supporting it directly or indirectly," he stressed.

Syrian pro-government forces sit on a military vehicle driving past residents fleeing the eastern part of Aleppo and gathering in Masaken Hanano, a former rebel-held district which was retaken by the regime forces last week, on November 30, 2016.

© AFP 2023 / George OURFALIAN

However, since a final deal, as it were, has not yet been struck between those parties who disagree about everything else, each and every one of them is trying to gain as much mileage as possible, some from ISIS [Daesh] itself, before they sit together at the negotiating table. All of those parties know and acknowledge that the Russian-Syrian alliance has the upper hand and will end up victorious," the analyst emphasized.

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29 November 2016, 12:09 GMT

"The biggest losers will undoubtedly be Saudi Arabia and Qatar. They may not even send envoys to the negotiations under the guise of protest. This leaves primarily Turkey and the United States. This is why they are trying to establish as much foothold as possible so they can take a bargaining chip with them, and not particularly because they intend to stay within Syria. They may wish to be able to stay, but they know they cannot," Kadi told Sputnik.

The analyst underscored that it is becoming clear now that the days of calling for Assad to step down, for Western-backed interim governments to be formed, implementing no-fly-zones, sanctions, military action and so forth are over and done with.

"They have all been tabled on the agenda of the enemies of Syria, and neither one of them came to fruition," he remarked.

"For as long as the Syrian people continue to support President Assad, and they do, when President Assad eventually leaves his office, it will more than likely be a retirement, at a time of his choosing, and as a victor and he will be recorded in history as an unparalleled hero who stood up against all odds," the analyst concluded.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Sputnik.