THE MOTHER OF ALL BATTLES LOOMING:
Ghassan Kadi
25 May 2015
The events of the last few months have been unravelling in a manner that was least revealing. Suddenly however, some developments can be seen, which if connected together, can only lead to one assessment and speculation.
The War on Syria is coming to a head and the real battle for liberating Syria is about to begin.
The stalemate of the months leading up the death of the Saudi King Abdullah were inadvertently related to the fact that he did not want to further engage Saudi Arabia in risky battles that could threaten its own security.
Soon after the incumbent king Salman assumed power, he declared war on the Houthis in Yemen, and in doing this, he declared a proxy war on Iran.
His uncalculated risk was based on the assumptions that Pakistan and Egypt were going to walk the talk and put their boots on his ground, but when push came to shove, they snubbed him leaving him high and dry. The war in Yemen is in its very early stages and its consequences can be far-reaching within Saudi Arabia. As a matter of fact, soon after the commencements of Saudi strikes on Yemen, Iran Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamanei broke his regular rhetoric and all rules of diplomacy when he promised the Saudis that their noses will be rubbed in the dirt.
Similar words were heard from Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah. Ever since the war on Syria started, Hezbollah had been fighting in Syria with one hand and having its other hand tied behind its back in Lebanon. For political reasons and in order to keep calm within Lebanon and prevent it from slumping into another civil war, Hezbollah did not take any serious actions in order to cleanse the Arsal district; an area in Lebanon’s east just a few kilometers from the Syrian Qalamoun district. But delaying this decision has also caused Syria a lot of harm because all forms of supplies reaching the Jiihadis in the Qalamoun has been coming from Lebanon via Arsal.
The stalemate was nudged before it was broken with the rise of ISIS in Mosul and most recently with ISIS reaching Palmyra.
Major and serious decisive moves have to be implemented, and the time is ripe; not only on the Syrian front, but also “assisted” and provoked by the Saudi attack on Yemen and even events as far as the Ukraine.
Just before Kerry’s recent Russian visit, tens of thousands of fresh Jihadi troops entered northern Syria via the Turkish borders. This was the culmination of a newly-formed Qatari-Saudi-Turkish alliance to topple President Assad. All three countries put aside their recent differences and decided to make fresh advances in the government-controlled region all the while ISIS makes its own advances in the eastern front.
Kerry only went to Russia because Western policies failed in the Ukraine. He went to seek terms of settlement, not to impose his own. It is beggars who go knocking at doors; not the other way around.
Little leaked out of the Russo-American talks and their outcome. All logical indicators however point to a scenario in which Kerry went to trade Ukraine for Syria. The Russian reply was clear; Russia is winning the situation in Ukraine and does not need to negotiate it.
Thinking that he was empowered by the new three-party-sponsored assault on Syria, Kerry believed that he had a bargaining chip. The Russians did not relent and told him that Syria will not fall into the hands of ISIS.
Given that there is little room left for diplomacy, given that the whole globe is on the verge of another world war, Russia and its friends realise that Syria is going to be the pilot light that will defuse the situation, and the only way for this to happen would be via a decisive military win that does not provide NATO with any bargaining chips.
Its timing is still for us to know, but the zero hour has been already declared.
Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah now feels that his hand in Lebanon is no longer tied behind his back. Surely, an all-out engagement with the Arsal Jihadis may have consequences that will encompass all of Lebanon and Lebanon might plunge into another civil war, but the risks of not going all the way to Arsal are more dangerous.
For the first time ever, in a speech given yesterday (25th of May) commemorating the fifteenth anniversary of victory in South Lebanon, Nasrallah commented on a call he made two days earlier, a call for general mobilization. He noted that “such a call would not be made had the situation did not warrant it”. He emphasized the level of preparedness of his troops, and that they will count in the tens of thousands on all fronts.
Friends of Syria ought to brace themselves for the mother of all battles. Once the Qalamoun is cleansed, Aleppo will be purified, Palmyra would have already been liberated, and the ISIS fighters will flee like rats. Syrian forces will meet Iraqi forces, shake hands, and call it mission accomplished.
http://www.almanar.com.lb/adetails.php?eid=1203772
Monday, May 25, 2015
Saturday, April 25, 2015
WHOSE SECOND COLD WAR?: (Thank you Russia) By Ghassan Kadi 25 April 2015
WHOSE SECOND COLD WAR?: (Thank you Russia)
By Ghassan Kadi
25 April 2015
The world does not need a new cold war, or does it?
The Cold War started before the hot war was over. It was put on track when America dropped the “bomb” and Stalin declared that the USSR should have the same technology.
The blame here is not on Stalin. If the Americans had any wisdom to learn from history, they should have known that even before the Assyrians introduced iron swords and spears against blades made of bronze, any new super weapon creates an arms race. In retrospect therefore, the “Manhattan Project” was the real underlying trigger point for initiating the Cold War.
With both the US and the USSR, and later on Britain and France and other nations becoming nuclear powers, the deterring effect of a major direct confrontation between superpowers became obvious, though not strong enough to prevent major local conventional proxy wars.
Nations of the Middle East together with Korea and Vietnam cannot claim any benefit from the Cold War, but perhaps most of the rest of the world, especially Cuba, can.
America did not win the Cold War any more than the USSR lost it. In reality, ending it was a negotiated agreement that happened prior to the breakup of the USSR; not afterwards as falsely perpetrated by US officials and Western media.
With all the fear, tension, waste and plundering of resources that the Cold War generated, the world by-and-large has won it with flying colours. After all, it did stop WWIII and definitely did not allow for more A-Bombs to be dropped on more cities after Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The so-called American self-announced New-World Order that rendered the USA the sole superpower would have worked well had America used its fortune-given role for the betterment of humanity. But the USA chose to do the contrary. Instead of choosing to be a custodian, America chose to be a bully.
Only three years into its New-World Order era, America -unopposed- led a coalition against Iraq, and a few years later and on false claims invaded Afghanistan and then Iraq again and through its proxies, Libya.
Finally, in September 2013, Russia drew a redline on Syria, and for the first time after two and a half decades of impunity and global hegemony, the United States realized that its golden age of piracy has come to an end.
But this is not all.
During the days of the Vietnam War, the American economy was at its zeal. America was driven by greed, but given its current economic woes, the driving force has changed from greed to need, and this is where the danger is.
When fighting for survival, one puts much more effort, and this includes bullies. And when it comes to super bullies, if pushed and cornered, they may resort to all means possible to guarantee survival.
The American economy is in tatters.
The world’s first economy stature of the US is in question, not only on “Purchasing Power Parity” (PPP) basis, but there are also recent suspicions that the declared American GDP figure is deliberately inflated to $17 Tn when the real figure is only in the vicinity of $5 Tn. Some reports even argue that the debt figure has been tampered with to look much lower than what it is and that the actual figure is in excess of $80 Tn.
The US Dollar is strong now, but only artificially. As the global war against it, spearheaded by China, is already underway and it won’t take long before the Green Back loses its stature as “the” global currency. Furthermore, the natural resources of America have virtually all but dried up. Oil fracking will not offer the panacea needed, and even ground water resources are drying up.
America has lost most of industrial base and corporate greed initially moved its factories and know-how to China, not only creating massive domestic unemployment, but also teaching the Chinese technology they badly needed and were eager to learn. Now, The United States is highly dependent on Chinese imports all the way from highly sophisticated electronics to T-shirts.
On the human resource level, the number of American youth graduating with degrees in science and engineering are a fraction of what the BRICS countries are producing, and even less than what China and India are producing individually.
To add insult to injury, America’s infrastructure of roads, bridges, river levees, dams etc are crumbling and need trillions to be fixed; money that the treasury does not have and possibly cannot even borrow.
The only attribute that can keep America in the superpower basket is its military might, and a desperate America may just use more of it in more overt and bullish manners to rejuvenate its economic prowess and continue to reign supreme, and it did, for two and a half decades, until Russia drew a redline on Syria.
It is as if there is an undeclared accord between China and Russia that China would tackle the US dollar and Russia its military dominance, and this does not mean that either of them is powerless in the partner’s arena. United strategically and geopolitically with India as partners in BRICS, India is poised to play a significant role in reshaping the world of the future.
Here comes Cold War II ?? Perhaps it has already started.
Even before the redline-on-Syria event of September 2013, Russia has been put under the direct threat of NATO missiles in neighbouring ex-Warsaw Pact partners. Realistically, what was Russia supposed to do?
Moreover, even during the Yeltsin era when Russia did not pose any direct or indirect threat to America, American defence strategists continued to develop more sophisticated weapons as if the Cold War did not come to an end!!
The world certainly does not need a new cold war, or does it? Sadly, the USA is not seem to be giving the world any other option. America has already started Cold War II as soon as Cold war I was over. To this effect, the world should be thankful that once again Russia is prepared to do the deterrence.
By Ghassan Kadi
25 April 2015
The world does not need a new cold war, or does it?
The Cold War started before the hot war was over. It was put on track when America dropped the “bomb” and Stalin declared that the USSR should have the same technology.
The blame here is not on Stalin. If the Americans had any wisdom to learn from history, they should have known that even before the Assyrians introduced iron swords and spears against blades made of bronze, any new super weapon creates an arms race. In retrospect therefore, the “Manhattan Project” was the real underlying trigger point for initiating the Cold War.
With both the US and the USSR, and later on Britain and France and other nations becoming nuclear powers, the deterring effect of a major direct confrontation between superpowers became obvious, though not strong enough to prevent major local conventional proxy wars.
Nations of the Middle East together with Korea and Vietnam cannot claim any benefit from the Cold War, but perhaps most of the rest of the world, especially Cuba, can.
America did not win the Cold War any more than the USSR lost it. In reality, ending it was a negotiated agreement that happened prior to the breakup of the USSR; not afterwards as falsely perpetrated by US officials and Western media.
With all the fear, tension, waste and plundering of resources that the Cold War generated, the world by-and-large has won it with flying colours. After all, it did stop WWIII and definitely did not allow for more A-Bombs to be dropped on more cities after Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The so-called American self-announced New-World Order that rendered the USA the sole superpower would have worked well had America used its fortune-given role for the betterment of humanity. But the USA chose to do the contrary. Instead of choosing to be a custodian, America chose to be a bully.
Only three years into its New-World Order era, America -unopposed- led a coalition against Iraq, and a few years later and on false claims invaded Afghanistan and then Iraq again and through its proxies, Libya.
Finally, in September 2013, Russia drew a redline on Syria, and for the first time after two and a half decades of impunity and global hegemony, the United States realized that its golden age of piracy has come to an end.
But this is not all.
During the days of the Vietnam War, the American economy was at its zeal. America was driven by greed, but given its current economic woes, the driving force has changed from greed to need, and this is where the danger is.
When fighting for survival, one puts much more effort, and this includes bullies. And when it comes to super bullies, if pushed and cornered, they may resort to all means possible to guarantee survival.
The American economy is in tatters.
The world’s first economy stature of the US is in question, not only on “Purchasing Power Parity” (PPP) basis, but there are also recent suspicions that the declared American GDP figure is deliberately inflated to $17 Tn when the real figure is only in the vicinity of $5 Tn. Some reports even argue that the debt figure has been tampered with to look much lower than what it is and that the actual figure is in excess of $80 Tn.
The US Dollar is strong now, but only artificially. As the global war against it, spearheaded by China, is already underway and it won’t take long before the Green Back loses its stature as “the” global currency. Furthermore, the natural resources of America have virtually all but dried up. Oil fracking will not offer the panacea needed, and even ground water resources are drying up.
America has lost most of industrial base and corporate greed initially moved its factories and know-how to China, not only creating massive domestic unemployment, but also teaching the Chinese technology they badly needed and were eager to learn. Now, The United States is highly dependent on Chinese imports all the way from highly sophisticated electronics to T-shirts.
On the human resource level, the number of American youth graduating with degrees in science and engineering are a fraction of what the BRICS countries are producing, and even less than what China and India are producing individually.
To add insult to injury, America’s infrastructure of roads, bridges, river levees, dams etc are crumbling and need trillions to be fixed; money that the treasury does not have and possibly cannot even borrow.
The only attribute that can keep America in the superpower basket is its military might, and a desperate America may just use more of it in more overt and bullish manners to rejuvenate its economic prowess and continue to reign supreme, and it did, for two and a half decades, until Russia drew a redline on Syria.
It is as if there is an undeclared accord between China and Russia that China would tackle the US dollar and Russia its military dominance, and this does not mean that either of them is powerless in the partner’s arena. United strategically and geopolitically with India as partners in BRICS, India is poised to play a significant role in reshaping the world of the future.
Here comes Cold War II ?? Perhaps it has already started.
Even before the redline-on-Syria event of September 2013, Russia has been put under the direct threat of NATO missiles in neighbouring ex-Warsaw Pact partners. Realistically, what was Russia supposed to do?
Moreover, even during the Yeltsin era when Russia did not pose any direct or indirect threat to America, American defence strategists continued to develop more sophisticated weapons as if the Cold War did not come to an end!!
The world certainly does not need a new cold war, or does it? Sadly, the USA is not seem to be giving the world any other option. America has already started Cold War II as soon as Cold war I was over. To this effect, the world should be thankful that once again Russia is prepared to do the deterrence.
"SLOGANS VS MESSAGES:MIDDLE EAST STYLE" By Ghassan Kadi. Oriental Review 15 April 2015
An important but brief piece about knowing when a message is a message!
http://orientalreview.org/2015/04/15/slogans-vs-messages-middle-east-style/on
More in Chaosistan:
Saturday, March 28, 2015
WHICH UNTOLD STORY. By Ghassan Kadi.
Ghassan wrote it last October 2014 after we both left a group I had been administrator of for three years. It was a group Ghassan wrote specially for. I decided it should go on the Blog!
WHICH UNTOLD STORY
Ghassan Kadi
31 Oct 2014
When the “War On Syria” started, the world media were reporting that there was a revolution in Syria, a revolution that was inspired by the so-called “Arab Spring” seeking reform, democracy and freedom of expression, among other things that the West considers as “hip”. Syrian patriots and their friends knew well from the very beginning that Syria was neither having a revolution nor a civil war. They realized that Syria was under a vicious attack that was targeting its people, secular system, economy, history, infrastructure, and sovereignty with the ultimate purpose of destroying its central role in the Axis of Resistance. That attack was concocted by a myriad of nations and organizations of diverse backgrounds and interests; united only by their hatred to Syria.
That was the untold story then, and it had to be told for the world to hear.
But the untold story of Syria is a dynamic on-going saga that should be retold in accordance with the changes in and within Syria’s enemies.
As the “War On Syria” unfolds and reshapes itself, Syria faces new enemies, and the major new enemy today is the Islamic State (IS). And even though Islamic fundamentalism was one of the original major elements in the Anti-Syrian Cocktail that started the “War On Syria” in 2011, the monster is changing its form and reach. For Syria to win its new/old fight, it would need more than military prowess; it needs updated information strategies.
The turn in the war is due to the fact that “War On Syria” did not proceed in accordance with the plot of the Anti-Syrian Cocktail.
Owing to the great achievements of the gallant Syrian Army, the coalition broke apart by the individual interests of its members, some of whom are now fighting each other. United by hatred, dismantled by individual greed, members of the original Anti-Syrian Cocktail are scrambling, each trying to scavenge a win while he can, if he can. A quick and brief look at the developments of the last three years can clearly reveal at least all of the following:
1. The Qataris and the Saudis are at odds and in a conflict that may escalate.
2. The FSA is now almost non-existent and fighting Al-Nusra and ISIS.
3. The Syrian Army continues to score victories in the Damascus, Hama, and Aleppo Provinces.
4. The Syrian Army continues to fight the Islamic State in Deir Ezzur
5. There is a growing division within the ranks of the Saudi royals
6. There is a world-wide awakening that the Islamic State is a global danger
7. The Americans, British and French are bombing the Islamic State
8. Even the Saudis and Qataris are bombing the Islamic State
9. Turkey is refusing to come to the party of global effort against the Islamic State.
10. There is growing dissent within Saudi Arabia against the royal family and its recent involvement in the war against the Islamic State.
One would wonder what unity is realistically left in this once united coalition.
The obvious strategy behind the American strikes on the oil refineries and other infrastructure that has fallen under the Islamic State is a means to cripple the IS by cutting off its lifeline and supplies that give it independence. The strikes also attempt to coerce the Islamists back into submission. These are the simple and most plausible reasons behind the strikes on IS. However, most of the analyses seem to avoid the obvious and focus on theories that make the Americans appear as acting “according to plan”. This cannot be further from the truth, because reality clearly reveals that nothing has happened according to plan.
With all of the changes and Syria’s achievements, one could argue that the untold story of three years ago has already been told. There is little strategic gain in continuing to retell it in its original form.
The world is now boiling and raging with anti-IS passion. The IS is now seen, worldwide, as a vicious and rather primitive force that is threatening humanity. And whilst no one wishes for more terrorist attacks akin to the recent Ottawa attack, such actions are bolstering the Western Anti-IS resolve and moving public opinion more and more towards confronting it.
Furthermore, if we keep reiterating that the “War On Syria” is all conducted according to a stepwise elaborate plan that is fully orchestrated by the USA and executed to the finest detail by all members of the Anti-Syrian Cocktail, we would be portraying the enemies of Syria as the winners, and clearly they are not. As a matter of fact, the enemies of Syria are neither smart enough to conjure up such a plan nor capable of fulfilling it.
America can neither control nor guarantee what will happen tomorrow; let alone next year or decade. It is ridden with huge economic crises, decaying infra-structure, failed foreign policies and wars; among other serious problems.
This is a rather golden opportunity for Syria friends to use in order to put a concerted effort on portraying the true image of Syria as THE state that has been and continues fight terrorism for nearly four years. A proper pro-Syrian propaganda campaign can even rightfully make the proclamation that Syria’s war with the Islamists is 40 years old, thereby making Syria the forefront expert of dealing with this mode of terrorism. In reality however, little is done in this regard and the message is definitely not reaching the globe.
In this respect, telling the new untold story to the English-speaking world should now be a much easier job than the one that English-speaking Syrian support groups embarked upon some three years ago. Three years ago Syria’s untold story had very little in common with the general knowledge and interests of Westerners, and yet, members of such groups worked relentlessly and successfully managed to rally up a great deal of awareness and support for Syria.
Three years ago, I humbly embarked on this journey of telling this untold story and I was privileged to join the ranks of many much more informed and intelligent people than myself. I now feel that this narrative has run its course and that it is time to move on. I have done my utmost to reason with some old comrades, but it is obvious that they do not recognise the change. It is time for me to move on and leave this group and bid it farewell.
Chapter Two of the untold story is upon us. The world seems ready to listen. It is up to us to choose to do the telling of the new story, and this is what I intend to do with a lot of help from my old and new friends.
Friday, March 27, 2015
WHICH SAUDI ARMY? Ghassan Kadi. 26 March 2015
WHICH SAUDI ARMY?:
Saudi Arabia’s military budget of $bn 80.8 in 2014 ranked the third in the world, and scored higher than that of Russia with the USA and China being the first and second, respectively. Russia’s budget for 2014 was $bn 70 only.
Daunting as they are, on their own, those figures do not mean much at all. On face value alone, they may indicate to some that Riyadh’s military prowess is mightier than that of Moscow. This is very far from the truth.
Unless one has actually worked and lived in Saudi Arabia, it becomes difficult to fathom the financial disparity between that state and any other country in the world. As a general rule of thumb, whatever costs a dollar anywhere in the world will cost much more in Saudi Arabia. This is not so much because commodities are more expensive in Saudi Arabia. Commodities have an international price, but all services rendered in Saudi Arabia are performed by ex-pats; highly paid ex-pats, who are not highly paid necessarily because of the great work they do, but for putting up and accepting to live under the dark and suppressive Saudi regime.
But this is not all, Saudis do not work. They like to pose as managers and their laws make them de-facto partners and 51% shareholders in all companies with the other 49% holding belong to the ex-pat who has the know-how and willingness to work, and sometimes even the working capital.
Everything in Saudi Arabia is done by ex-pats, all the way from petroleum extraction to construction to medical services, teaching, farming, etc…. Everything is run by “foreign experts” with Saudi shadows in the background pretending to be the brains trust. The number of ex-pats who work and live in Saudi Arabia is a living proof. Initially, it was expected that once Saudis acquired enough expertise in different areas, they would not need those foreign professionals any longer, but more than five decades into the petro-dollar boom, the number of those experts did not shrink. This is not likely to change because the Saudis firmly believe that they are superior and deserve to be served by members of lower nations.
If the reliance on ex-pats in Saudi Arabia is so strong in all sectors of life, why would we expect the army to be any different? During the siege of the Mecca Shrine in 1979, Saudi Arabia hired SSG Pakistani commandos to engage with the rebels. Surely, more than three decades later, the Saudi Army now is not where it was back in 1979, but nonetheless, it has not gained any combat experience at all….none what so ever.
If Saudis cannot construct bridges, build airports and perform surgeries, what makes anyone believe that they are able to use the expensive military toys they bought from America?
To complicate matters even more, the personnel of the Saudi Army are mainly Bedouins who are loyal to the royal family. Their loyalty may sound like a huge credit, but once again, it takes those who are familiar with Saudi Bedouins and their interactions with machines to understand their incapability of handling motor vehicles let alone high-tech military hardware.
The Saudi Army is now being put to the test. It is directly engaging in war in Yemen for the first time ever. It is highly unlikely that it will be able to prove the worth of the investment. Will they buy fighting partners? Will they lure Egypt with more funds? Will they engage Pakistan again? Time will tell.
Saudi Arabia’s military budget of $bn 80.8 in 2014 ranked the third in the world, and scored higher than that of Russia with the USA and China being the first and second, respectively. Russia’s budget for 2014 was $bn 70 only.
Daunting as they are, on their own, those figures do not mean much at all. On face value alone, they may indicate to some that Riyadh’s military prowess is mightier than that of Moscow. This is very far from the truth.
Unless one has actually worked and lived in Saudi Arabia, it becomes difficult to fathom the financial disparity between that state and any other country in the world. As a general rule of thumb, whatever costs a dollar anywhere in the world will cost much more in Saudi Arabia. This is not so much because commodities are more expensive in Saudi Arabia. Commodities have an international price, but all services rendered in Saudi Arabia are performed by ex-pats; highly paid ex-pats, who are not highly paid necessarily because of the great work they do, but for putting up and accepting to live under the dark and suppressive Saudi regime.
But this is not all, Saudis do not work. They like to pose as managers and their laws make them de-facto partners and 51% shareholders in all companies with the other 49% holding belong to the ex-pat who has the know-how and willingness to work, and sometimes even the working capital.
Everything in Saudi Arabia is done by ex-pats, all the way from petroleum extraction to construction to medical services, teaching, farming, etc…. Everything is run by “foreign experts” with Saudi shadows in the background pretending to be the brains trust. The number of ex-pats who work and live in Saudi Arabia is a living proof. Initially, it was expected that once Saudis acquired enough expertise in different areas, they would not need those foreign professionals any longer, but more than five decades into the petro-dollar boom, the number of those experts did not shrink. This is not likely to change because the Saudis firmly believe that they are superior and deserve to be served by members of lower nations.
If the reliance on ex-pats in Saudi Arabia is so strong in all sectors of life, why would we expect the army to be any different? During the siege of the Mecca Shrine in 1979, Saudi Arabia hired SSG Pakistani commandos to engage with the rebels. Surely, more than three decades later, the Saudi Army now is not where it was back in 1979, but nonetheless, it has not gained any combat experience at all….none what so ever.
If Saudis cannot construct bridges, build airports and perform surgeries, what makes anyone believe that they are able to use the expensive military toys they bought from America?
To complicate matters even more, the personnel of the Saudi Army are mainly Bedouins who are loyal to the royal family. Their loyalty may sound like a huge credit, but once again, it takes those who are familiar with Saudi Bedouins and their interactions with machines to understand their incapability of handling motor vehicles let alone high-tech military hardware.
The Saudi Army is now being put to the test. It is directly engaging in war in Yemen for the first time ever. It is highly unlikely that it will be able to prove the worth of the investment. Will they buy fighting partners? Will they lure Egypt with more funds? Will they engage Pakistan again? Time will tell.
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
MORE WINDS OF CHANGE AND ISOLATION OF ERDOGAN:
MORE WINDS OF CHANGE AND ISOLATION OF ERDOGAN: Ghassan Kadi/Intibah Wakeup/Abdel Bari Atwan December 2014
10 December 2014
Ghassan Kadi
Below is an extract of Abdel-Bari Atwan’s article in Ra’i Al-Youm and which was published on Tuesday the 9th of December 2014. It was translated/interpreted by Intibah and myself.
Briefly, the recent GCC Summit has coerced Qatar back into its regional position and distancing itself from Turkey. The schism between the Gulf states had been very prominent and a few months ago the ambassadors of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE left Qatar in protest of the on-going Qatari role in supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and undermining the Egyptian President Al-Sisi.
The points of the article below speak for themselves, but what the article did not touch on to was the impact of this summit on Turkey given all the recent developments in and around Anatolia.
Erdogan found himself confronting major unexpected events in the last few months. To begin with, his partnership with Qatar (mainly) to topple the Syrian Government has failed abysmally. The rise of ISIS and the American pressure has put him in a state of utter dismay with his big ally, especially that the USA has been pushing the Kurdish card. This left Erdogan very unimpressed. And as if this was not enough, Vice President Biden blamed Turkey for the rise of ISIS and even though he apologized later on, the words cannot be retracted. It is possible now that the GCC summit will drive the last nail in the coffin of the Turkish-Qatari relationship.
Then came Turkey’s windfall from the collapse of the Southstream project and moving it to Turkey.
Whilst the summit does not dictate that Qatar and Turkey should no longer work together against Syria, but Turkey did not have its say as yet. It is not only for Qatar and Saudi Arabia and the rest of the GCC states to dictate to Erdogan what to do.
Ironically also, the EU is suddenly now luring Turkey to join after snubbing it for decades. Turkey no longer needs the EU. Its economy is in a much better shape than most EU states and the gas deal with Russia has linked the economies of the two countries in a manner that excludes the EU.
How will Erdogan deal with all of these changes around him? Snubbed by the EU until now, let down by the USA and dumped by Qatar.
Will Erdogan finally see the light and realize the horror of his anti-Syrian stand? Will he do a U-turn? Only time will tell, but there is one thing that we can know for sure, and that there are going to be some serious changes in the very near future.
……………………………………………………………………………………………….
A Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) Summit of Tuesday 9th of December 2014, was the shortest of their meetings in history and it only took two hours. It was restricted to three main speeches, the first was given by the host, Prince of Qatar, Tamim Bin Hamad, and the second by Sheikh Sabah al Ahmad, Prince of Kuwait and the third by Abdel-Latif al Ziyani, the GCC General Secretary.
The significance of this short summit lay in the game-changing decisions it reached and putting Qatar back on the road map by flagrantly decreeing that the GCC unconditionally supports Egyptian President Al-Sisi, thus removing the major stumbling blocked that was facing a GCC reconciliation.
The summit reached a number of commitments and changes which include the following main ones;
1. That Qatar totally abandons supporting the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), politically, financially and with their media support. This includes thwarting first and second tier leaders who live in Doha and coercing them to stop all hostile political activities towards the Egyptian government and, on top of that list is Sheikh Yusuf Qaradawi, the leader of the Union of Islamic Clerics;
2. Implementing a major change in the nature of the coverage of programs of Al Jazeera, particularly those related to an anti- Al-Sisi stance and to adopt a similar approach to its competitor network Al Arabiya;
3. To offer financial support and release funds that were meant to be sent to the Egyptian treasury. It is worthy here to note that Qatar has donated more than 10 billion dollars to the Egyptian government during the short presidency of Mohammed Morsi which the new Egyptian government returned to Qatar as a gesture of protest;
4. That Qatar would leave, partially or totally, its alliance with Turkey and its President Erdogan, especially in relation to the Egyptian and Libyan files, with the possibility of retaining the portfolio relating to Syria and which centres around toppling President Assad. Both Turkey and Qatar had previously supported the MB’s in Egypt and the Islamists in Libya.
This change in the Qatari position is neither surprising nor sudden. All of its details were agreed upon in the special Riyadh summit last month in which Saudi King Abdallah clearly stated that supporting Al-Sisi is the prime condition to hold the Doha summit with everyone’s participation and the return of the three Ambassadors to Qatar (Saudi, UAE and Bahrain).
http://www.raialyoum.com/?p=190066
10 December 2014
Ghassan Kadi
Below is an extract of Abdel-Bari Atwan’s article in Ra’i Al-Youm and which was published on Tuesday the 9th of December 2014. It was translated/interpreted by Intibah and myself.
Briefly, the recent GCC Summit has coerced Qatar back into its regional position and distancing itself from Turkey. The schism between the Gulf states had been very prominent and a few months ago the ambassadors of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE left Qatar in protest of the on-going Qatari role in supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and undermining the Egyptian President Al-Sisi.
The points of the article below speak for themselves, but what the article did not touch on to was the impact of this summit on Turkey given all the recent developments in and around Anatolia.
Erdogan found himself confronting major unexpected events in the last few months. To begin with, his partnership with Qatar (mainly) to topple the Syrian Government has failed abysmally. The rise of ISIS and the American pressure has put him in a state of utter dismay with his big ally, especially that the USA has been pushing the Kurdish card. This left Erdogan very unimpressed. And as if this was not enough, Vice President Biden blamed Turkey for the rise of ISIS and even though he apologized later on, the words cannot be retracted. It is possible now that the GCC summit will drive the last nail in the coffin of the Turkish-Qatari relationship.
Then came Turkey’s windfall from the collapse of the Southstream project and moving it to Turkey.
Whilst the summit does not dictate that Qatar and Turkey should no longer work together against Syria, but Turkey did not have its say as yet. It is not only for Qatar and Saudi Arabia and the rest of the GCC states to dictate to Erdogan what to do.
Ironically also, the EU is suddenly now luring Turkey to join after snubbing it for decades. Turkey no longer needs the EU. Its economy is in a much better shape than most EU states and the gas deal with Russia has linked the economies of the two countries in a manner that excludes the EU.
How will Erdogan deal with all of these changes around him? Snubbed by the EU until now, let down by the USA and dumped by Qatar.
Will Erdogan finally see the light and realize the horror of his anti-Syrian stand? Will he do a U-turn? Only time will tell, but there is one thing that we can know for sure, and that there are going to be some serious changes in the very near future.
……………………………………………………………………………………………….
A Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) Summit of Tuesday 9th of December 2014, was the shortest of their meetings in history and it only took two hours. It was restricted to three main speeches, the first was given by the host, Prince of Qatar, Tamim Bin Hamad, and the second by Sheikh Sabah al Ahmad, Prince of Kuwait and the third by Abdel-Latif al Ziyani, the GCC General Secretary.
The significance of this short summit lay in the game-changing decisions it reached and putting Qatar back on the road map by flagrantly decreeing that the GCC unconditionally supports Egyptian President Al-Sisi, thus removing the major stumbling blocked that was facing a GCC reconciliation.
The summit reached a number of commitments and changes which include the following main ones;
1. That Qatar totally abandons supporting the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), politically, financially and with their media support. This includes thwarting first and second tier leaders who live in Doha and coercing them to stop all hostile political activities towards the Egyptian government and, on top of that list is Sheikh Yusuf Qaradawi, the leader of the Union of Islamic Clerics;
2. Implementing a major change in the nature of the coverage of programs of Al Jazeera, particularly those related to an anti- Al-Sisi stance and to adopt a similar approach to its competitor network Al Arabiya;
3. To offer financial support and release funds that were meant to be sent to the Egyptian treasury. It is worthy here to note that Qatar has donated more than 10 billion dollars to the Egyptian government during the short presidency of Mohammed Morsi which the new Egyptian government returned to Qatar as a gesture of protest;
4. That Qatar would leave, partially or totally, its alliance with Turkey and its President Erdogan, especially in relation to the Egyptian and Libyan files, with the possibility of retaining the portfolio relating to Syria and which centres around toppling President Assad. Both Turkey and Qatar had previously supported the MB’s in Egypt and the Islamists in Libya.
This change in the Qatari position is neither surprising nor sudden. All of its details were agreed upon in the special Riyadh summit last month in which Saudi King Abdallah clearly stated that supporting Al-Sisi is the prime condition to hold the Doha summit with everyone’s participation and the return of the three Ambassadors to Qatar (Saudi, UAE and Bahrain).
http://www.raialyoum.com/?p=190066
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
CHANGES WITHIN COMPLEX CRISES; IRAQ'S EMERGING MEDIATOR ROLE. Translated by Ghassan & Intibah Kadi
A very interesting analysis by Tarek Tarshishi which was published today (11/11/2014) on Al-Joumhouria (a Lebanese daily). It centres on a possible new pivotal role that the Iraqi diplomacy might be able to play in the very near future.
The post-Saddam Iraq is closer to its neighbours than most of them are to each other. It has good relations with Iran, Syria, Jordan, Turkey, and working on thawing the recent freeze with Saudi Arabia. Last but not least, it is also close to the United States. This puts it in a unique regional position, one that it can use as a broker and a mediator. The author examines those scenarios.
The article ends up on a very positive note that is based on the recent Lebanese Army takeover of the city of Tripoli and the ousting of ISIS sympathisers from Lebanon's second largest city and the entire Northern Lebanon.
--------------------------------------------
Changes within Complex Crises; Iraq’s Emerging Mediator Role.
Al Joumhouriya.
By Tarek Tarshishi 11/11/2014
Translated By Ghassan Kadi and Intibah Wakeup
Observers are watching with interest the new direction the Iraq government is taking towards two states that it was only recently still accusing of backing terrorist organisations within Mesopotamia.
Those observers are wondering what the real reasons are behind the recent visit of the Iraqi Foreign Minister, Dr Ibrahim Jaafari, to Turkey and the huge reception he received. They wonder if this reception was based on economics in which Turkey seeks an open trade channel for its goods and products to Arabia and the Gulf and where it can remain open with Iraq providing the logistics for this route, thereby bolstering the Turkish economy at a time when its future seems uncertain.
Or, was this visit and reception the result of political interests reflecting the Turkish wish to stifle the project of an independent Kurdistan based in Northern Iraq, expanding westwards towards Turkey and Syria, given that both countries have common concerns regarding this project?
Or, was this visit related to oil supplies to Turkey and the construction of gas pipes from Iraq and the Gulf leading to the Turkish ports on the Mediterranean? And, last but not least, was it about reviewing the strategies that have been imposed upon Turkey in view of the recent developments in Syria and the recent attack of the international alliance on ISIS and Al Nusra and the Turkish embarrassment that followed?
The observers are also asking; will Iraq, with its close ties with Iran and Turkey, enable Turkish President Erdogan to review his position towards the Syrian crisis and offer him a bridge? Or does Iraq simply want Turkey to stop supporting the armed as well as unarmed opposition to its new government?
Obviously, what is going to make Turkey’s need for Iraq exceed Iraq’s need for Turkey is the current visit of the Iraqi President, Fouad Maasoum, to Riyadh at a time when competition between Saudi Arabia and Turkey for the Sunni leadership in the region is at its highest. This competition is seen most clearly in the insistence of the Turkish and Qatari funded Jabhat al Nusra to liquidate all Islamist organisations that are sponsored by Riyadh in the Idlib and Aleppo regions.
The expected Saudi reception to the Iraqi President draws a lot of interest least of which, due to the recent declaration of the Iraqi President, that the way to confront ISIS starts with overcoming the differences and political divisions in Iraq; issues in which Saudi Arabia can play a big role in overcoming.
The Sunni and Kurdish Iraqi President, Maasoum, is going to Riyadh to establish a new relationship between Baghdad and the land of the holy Islamic shrines. This relationship will have positive repercussions on the Sunni-Shia relationships on the one hand and, on the other hand, of the relationship between Saudi Arabia with Iran and Syria.
The easing of the Saudi – Iraqi relationship, as seen by the observers, will take the relationships between Riyadh and Damascus half way, and, it will also open some pathways between Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran. This development in the Saudi – Iraqi relationship cannot be looked at in isolation from the trilateral talks between American Foreign Secretary, Kerry, and his Iranian and EU counterparts, Jawad Zarif and Catherine Ashton in Oman. According to expectations, these talks are going to pave way for significant steps to resolve the Western-Iranian nuclear impasse despite the doubts of the non-enthusiastic hawks.
From this perspective, many read in Obama’s letter to the Spiritual leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, a tacit assurance to hawkish Iranians that a deal with Washington will not be at the expense of Iran and that, in fact, it could lead to several economic and political easing that will give Iran a bigger role regionally and internationally.
This letter also forms the foundation to clarify that America’s revision of the Syrian crisis clearly indicates that its priorities now are fighting ISIS and similar organisations and not toppling Bashar al Assad.
These developments coincide with Western and Arabic reports that speak of the bilateral Russo-Egyptian role in facilitating a diplomatic solution in Syria which starts with a cease-fire in the hot regions in the north and the south of the country alike, all the way through the Homs region which was recently visited by the UN envoy, Staffan de Mistura , during which he met with the Homs Province governor Talal al Barazi as well as representatives of the opposition in an attempt to find a resolution for the fighters in Hai Alwar, in line with what has happened to other fighters in the old city of Homs earlier on.
The observers see that the flurry of diplomatic activities between the regional capitals and the rest of the world will result in the easing of many complex crises including the Syrian crisis. This includes moving towards a resolution that retains the presidency of Assad and allows keeping the doors open for an opposition that has not been involved in bloodshed in order that they participate in a national conciliation government.
To this effect, the information points to Moscow and Cairo working in conjunction to foster and promote a Syrian opposition entity headed by the previous president of the Syrian National Council, Ahmad Mouaz al Khatib. Al Khatib is accepted by Washington as a representative of the moderate opposition and one with whom the government is prepared to debate with in order to finalise the conciliation process which has thus far included 43 geographical areas.
Is it possible now to say that Iraq’s political move towards Ankara and Riyadh is changing its status from a playground to a player in the regions’ conflict? Has the international, regional and Arabic community conceded that Assad will stay as a President, changing the priorities instead to fighting terrorism? This was the priority that the official Syrian delegation took to Geneva II whilst the opposition, on the other hand at that time, was prioritizing forming an interim government, one that Lebanese leader Walid Jumblatt predicted President Assad would remain the leader of.
As for ISIS, it seems to be another story altogether. All indications from reports emerging from Syrian Ain al Arab (Kobani) all the way to the Iraqi town of Biji, indicate that the Caliph Abu Bakr al Baghdadi has been injured in a recent air strike. Before that, the recent developments in Tripoli and the rest of Northern Lebanon all indicate that ISIS has entered the countdown phase (that will mark its end).
http://www.aljoumhouria.com/news/index/184930
The post-Saddam Iraq is closer to its neighbours than most of them are to each other. It has good relations with Iran, Syria, Jordan, Turkey, and working on thawing the recent freeze with Saudi Arabia. Last but not least, it is also close to the United States. This puts it in a unique regional position, one that it can use as a broker and a mediator. The author examines those scenarios.
The article ends up on a very positive note that is based on the recent Lebanese Army takeover of the city of Tripoli and the ousting of ISIS sympathisers from Lebanon's second largest city and the entire Northern Lebanon.
--------------------------------------------
Changes within Complex Crises; Iraq’s Emerging Mediator Role.
Al Joumhouriya.
By Tarek Tarshishi 11/11/2014
Translated By Ghassan Kadi and Intibah Wakeup
Observers are watching with interest the new direction the Iraq government is taking towards two states that it was only recently still accusing of backing terrorist organisations within Mesopotamia.
Those observers are wondering what the real reasons are behind the recent visit of the Iraqi Foreign Minister, Dr Ibrahim Jaafari, to Turkey and the huge reception he received. They wonder if this reception was based on economics in which Turkey seeks an open trade channel for its goods and products to Arabia and the Gulf and where it can remain open with Iraq providing the logistics for this route, thereby bolstering the Turkish economy at a time when its future seems uncertain.
Or, was this visit and reception the result of political interests reflecting the Turkish wish to stifle the project of an independent Kurdistan based in Northern Iraq, expanding westwards towards Turkey and Syria, given that both countries have common concerns regarding this project?
Or, was this visit related to oil supplies to Turkey and the construction of gas pipes from Iraq and the Gulf leading to the Turkish ports on the Mediterranean? And, last but not least, was it about reviewing the strategies that have been imposed upon Turkey in view of the recent developments in Syria and the recent attack of the international alliance on ISIS and Al Nusra and the Turkish embarrassment that followed?
The observers are also asking; will Iraq, with its close ties with Iran and Turkey, enable Turkish President Erdogan to review his position towards the Syrian crisis and offer him a bridge? Or does Iraq simply want Turkey to stop supporting the armed as well as unarmed opposition to its new government?
Obviously, what is going to make Turkey’s need for Iraq exceed Iraq’s need for Turkey is the current visit of the Iraqi President, Fouad Maasoum, to Riyadh at a time when competition between Saudi Arabia and Turkey for the Sunni leadership in the region is at its highest. This competition is seen most clearly in the insistence of the Turkish and Qatari funded Jabhat al Nusra to liquidate all Islamist organisations that are sponsored by Riyadh in the Idlib and Aleppo regions.
The expected Saudi reception to the Iraqi President draws a lot of interest least of which, due to the recent declaration of the Iraqi President, that the way to confront ISIS starts with overcoming the differences and political divisions in Iraq; issues in which Saudi Arabia can play a big role in overcoming.
The Sunni and Kurdish Iraqi President, Maasoum, is going to Riyadh to establish a new relationship between Baghdad and the land of the holy Islamic shrines. This relationship will have positive repercussions on the Sunni-Shia relationships on the one hand and, on the other hand, of the relationship between Saudi Arabia with Iran and Syria.
The easing of the Saudi – Iraqi relationship, as seen by the observers, will take the relationships between Riyadh and Damascus half way, and, it will also open some pathways between Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran. This development in the Saudi – Iraqi relationship cannot be looked at in isolation from the trilateral talks between American Foreign Secretary, Kerry, and his Iranian and EU counterparts, Jawad Zarif and Catherine Ashton in Oman. According to expectations, these talks are going to pave way for significant steps to resolve the Western-Iranian nuclear impasse despite the doubts of the non-enthusiastic hawks.
From this perspective, many read in Obama’s letter to the Spiritual leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, a tacit assurance to hawkish Iranians that a deal with Washington will not be at the expense of Iran and that, in fact, it could lead to several economic and political easing that will give Iran a bigger role regionally and internationally.
This letter also forms the foundation to clarify that America’s revision of the Syrian crisis clearly indicates that its priorities now are fighting ISIS and similar organisations and not toppling Bashar al Assad.
These developments coincide with Western and Arabic reports that speak of the bilateral Russo-Egyptian role in facilitating a diplomatic solution in Syria which starts with a cease-fire in the hot regions in the north and the south of the country alike, all the way through the Homs region which was recently visited by the UN envoy, Staffan de Mistura , during which he met with the Homs Province governor Talal al Barazi as well as representatives of the opposition in an attempt to find a resolution for the fighters in Hai Alwar, in line with what has happened to other fighters in the old city of Homs earlier on.
The observers see that the flurry of diplomatic activities between the regional capitals and the rest of the world will result in the easing of many complex crises including the Syrian crisis. This includes moving towards a resolution that retains the presidency of Assad and allows keeping the doors open for an opposition that has not been involved in bloodshed in order that they participate in a national conciliation government.
To this effect, the information points to Moscow and Cairo working in conjunction to foster and promote a Syrian opposition entity headed by the previous president of the Syrian National Council, Ahmad Mouaz al Khatib. Al Khatib is accepted by Washington as a representative of the moderate opposition and one with whom the government is prepared to debate with in order to finalise the conciliation process which has thus far included 43 geographical areas.
Is it possible now to say that Iraq’s political move towards Ankara and Riyadh is changing its status from a playground to a player in the regions’ conflict? Has the international, regional and Arabic community conceded that Assad will stay as a President, changing the priorities instead to fighting terrorism? This was the priority that the official Syrian delegation took to Geneva II whilst the opposition, on the other hand at that time, was prioritizing forming an interim government, one that Lebanese leader Walid Jumblatt predicted President Assad would remain the leader of.
As for ISIS, it seems to be another story altogether. All indications from reports emerging from Syrian Ain al Arab (Kobani) all the way to the Iraqi town of Biji, indicate that the Caliph Abu Bakr al Baghdadi has been injured in a recent air strike. Before that, the recent developments in Tripoli and the rest of Northern Lebanon all indicate that ISIS has entered the countdown phase (that will mark its end).
http://www.aljoumhouria.com/news/index/184930
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