THE ENIGMATIC MOHAMED BIN SALMAN By Ghassan Kadi 7 November 2017

THE ENIGMATIC MOHAMED BIN SALMAN
By Ghassan Kadi
7 November 2017

Ghassan Kadi’s take on the fast-moving developments in the region.

http://thesaker.is/the-enigmatic-mohamed-bin-salman/

The enigmatic Mohamed Bin Salman

23876 ViewsNovember 07, 2017 44 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

Love him or hate him, Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman (MBS) is like no other prince that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has seen since its inception under the rule of his founding grandfather King Abdul Aziz in 1932 and the establishment of the Al-Saud dynasty that changed Arabia; including its name.

Some argue that even the worst of humans can do a bit of good. The question is this; is MBS capable of doing any?

MBS has been the architect of that awful and criminal war on Yemen. Tens of thousands of innocent Yemeni civilians have been killed either by Saudi-led raids or by starvation and diseases inflicted upon Yemen as a result of the war. Hundreds of thousands of Yemeni men, women and children are living under abject conditions; with lack of provisions, medication and basic requirements for survival.

On the account of Yemen alone, MBS is a war criminal, an architect of genocide, and ought to face justice.

His legacy in Yemen should not make us forget and ignore his sanctioning of the execution of Saudi Shiite scholar Nimr Nimr and many others, and his rabid ambition sweeping out anything and anyone in his way.

A few years ago, and before the death of the then Crown Prince Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz, the incumbent king Salman, father of MBS, was nowhere to be seen in the throne succession hierarchy. Saudi succession has always been left to a matter of “Shoura”, a council of princes (Bai’aa council) who decided how and when the third and fourth in line had to be picked; but the position of the Crown Prince was never a question, because it was always pre-determined many years prior to having to worry about the king’s successor.

With the many wives and sons that Saudi founding father King Abdul Aziz has had, he must have died thinking and believing that he had procreated enough to guarantee the survival of his dynasty, and in more ways than one, his hopes worked for four to five decades after his death. But in retrospect, that was a blessing with a hidden curse.

His first successors were the sons of his first wives. But more than six decades after his death, the generational change was not so much to be dictated by the father king, but rather by the maternal lineage.

Traditionally in polygamic societies, older wives and their children naturally loath younger wives and their children. When power is involved, the older generation tries hard, very hard, to hold on to it to make sure it does not get passed on to the children of the younger wives.

But because King Abdul Aziz had a fifty year age gap between his eldest and youngest sons, as older sons became kings, younger half-brothers had to inherit the throne because for as long as some direct sons of founder Abdul Aziz were still alive, the throne was not meant to skip the generation to appoint grandsons as kings.

It is this scenario that inadvertently allowed MBS to rise to power; the death of his older uncles.

It must be remembered that not only MBS, but his father King Salman, had lived their lives in a state of “discrimination”; albeit as members of the royal family with all the financial privileges. They were raised to understand that their royal status has its limits. They can have all the money they want, but no power; none whatsoever. They were made to feel like second class royals, for no reason other than being the sons and grandsons of the younger wives.

All the while, the sons and grandsons of the older wives of founder King Abdul Aziz lavished in power and wealth under the watchful eyes of royals who were designated to be “inferior” to them.

Much has been said and reported about the rorts and spoils of the Saudi royals and their debauched lifestyle, and no words of dismay and criticism can match those of young Saudis who have been recently educated and do not feel that they owe the royal family anything at all. Added to their voice of dis-satisfaction is the voice of women who virtually have no rights at all within the kingdom of sand.

It is within this atmosphere that MBS has found himself, by shear luck, by the virtue that the once fourth in line, Crown Prince Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz died before his half-brother King Abdullah.

The house of Saud was not ready for this, and the death of Sultan put the whole succession issue into jeopardy, and to the amazing fortune of MBS, his father eventually landed on the throne because he was the only surviving son of founding father Abdul Aziz who was in reasonable health to take the throne, and before the throne jumps the generation from the direct sons, Salman could not be ignored.

The elevation of Salman to the throne would have gone without much ramifications had he kept his nephew Mohamed Bin Nayef as his Crown Prince. Such a succession would have kept the tier of succession back into the box of the old princes. But Salman has a son who is different, and this son Mohamed, MBS, is seemingly like no other prince, and he had his father nominate him as the Crown Prince to the dismay of the generation of many grandchildren of the founding king who thought they were more worthy.

For many years, Al-Saud and their constituency agonized as to who was going to be the first grandson of founding king Abdul Aziz to assume the throne. A multitude of candidates have aspired to this position, and the most likely winner was Bandar Bin Sultan, the son of the would-be king, but that crown prince died before he became king and his son Bandar failed in his venture in Syria and missed out.

When the highly ambitious MBS found himself in a position that can secure his ascension to the throne, he had to make sure that nothing and no one stood in the way.

But ambition does not seem to be the only thing on MBS’s mind. The man does seem to have the attributes of a nation-builder; for better or for worse.

MBS is certainly trying to change the face of Saudi Arabia. As a matter of fact, he already has.

The recent arrests of top notch princes and government officials can indeed be seen as a crackdown on corruption as MBS claims. But the bigger message that MBS is giving his cousins is that he is the boss, and he can throw anyone in jail; and none is bigger than Al-Walid Bin Talal.

Al-Walid is incidentally not only the grandson of founding King Abdul-Aziz, but his mother is Lebanese, and his maternal grandfather is Lebanon’s first post-independence Prime Minister Riyad Al-Solh. Al-Walid was never interested in politics. He is perhaps the richest Saudi prince at a net worth estimated to exceed USD 50 bn. His interest is in business and in spending most of his life on board of one of his yachts in the Mediterranean. He is the status symbol of how “successful” and powerful a Saudi prince can be, and if anyone in the whole world can touch him and put him behind bars, it is MBS, and he did. The irony is that no clear charges have been laid; and this cements the theory that MBS is mainly trying to set into concrete the rules of the pecking order.

And former King Abdullah, who was endearingly called Abu Mutiib by those close to him, and this is in reference to his eldest son, well, where is Mutiib now? In jail with his cousin Al-Walid. If King Abdullah could have a sneak look from his grave, he would not recognize the royal court that he departed from less than 3 years ago.

And as events develop quickly, we learn that Aziz Bin Fahed, son of former King Fahed, has been killed in a gunfight between his body guards and police forces who were trying to apprehend him.

What we are witnessing in Saudi Arabia is nothing short of a coup d’etat.

No Saudi prince has ever been jailed in Saudi Arabia before; with the exception of Faisal Bin Musaed who killed his uncle the then King Faisal.

Even if there is a faint whim floating around in Saudi Arabia saying that princes are now facing accountability and can stand trial for corruption, then MBS has already done a great reform. This is because for decades, Saudi princes were above the law and above other humans and their rights in a manner that is fairly akin to their pre-democracy European predecessors.

Back to whether or not cruel monstrous men are capable of doing any good, and apart from his insane cruelty to the people of Yemen and bitter hatred to Shiite Islam and insatiable thirst for power, is MBS doing any good at all?

Well, he is going to allow Saudi women to drive and go to sporting stadiums. He is planning to dismantle the Shariah police (Mutawea). He commissioned a committee of clerics to review the Hadith of Prophet Mohamed PBUH in an attempt to remove any interpretations that can lead to violence. He is pushing for moderate Islam, and he is bringing accountability to the house of Saud. For someone who is not very familiar with Saudi Arabia this may not sound like much, but for fairness to MBS, such steps were utterly inconceivable just a few months ago.

His dream city project “Neom” is portrayed in its advertisement as a modern city with women not wearing Hijab. Perhaps MBS is a visionary and a nation builder. Perhaps he has a sound long-term vision to modernize Saudi Arabia as he claimed many times that he would. Perhaps he is so determined to lift Saudi Arabia from the doldrums of Wahhabism into modernity, and he realizes that the only way to do that is to remove all of the obstacles; including many royals who support the old ways.

This article is not an attempt to praise MBS, because perhaps also he is only a power monger. Mass genocidal murderers cannot be praised. That said, the dark side of people should not totally mask the bright side; if there is a bright side at all.

MBS is now in an ideologically paradoxical situation with one foot that is allegedly deeply entrenched into modernizing and reforming Saudi Arabia, and another foot that is sinking in the war in Yemen, a war that is based on the hatred and prejudices of the old ways that he is claiming he is trying to change. He has to make up his mind and stop being enigmatic, and if he truly wants to be the reformer who will be marked in history as the one who miraculously reformed the seemingly irreformable kingdom, he must first and foremost end the war on Yemen, respect the Yemenis political choices, and send the Yemenis reparations, food, medicines and aid instead of bombs.

Last but not least, speaking of reform, there is no bigger and more urgent reform that the Muslim World needs than mending the Sunni-Shiite divide and which has been growing into a hugely dangerous rift that can set the whole region ablaze and make the wars we have seen recently in the area as only a prelude. Under the excuse of blaming the West and the “divide-and-conquer” strategy, the Muslim World keeps feeding the dispute that was based on the succession of Prophet Mohamed PBUH. The least Sunnis and Shia can do is to agree to disagree and live in peace with each other instead of stoking wars and proxy wars all the while blaming Western interference for their own failures and hatred for each other.

But MBS is not giving the indication that he has the substance for reform of this caliber. He is one of those Muslim leaders who invite the West in and beg to buy arms from it in order to help him fight his rivals in the Muslim World.

The real question to ask is this; what is it really that MBS is after? Certainly, he is seeking ultimate and unrivaled power within Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, he is trying to modernize his kingdom and gain the support of the educated Saudi male youth and females, and this support should bolster his tenure on the throne. But if he wants to be the historic reformer that he makes out himself to be, he must realize that he cannot be both that and a bigot. There is no better way for reform for him to embark upon than breaking ranks with the American-Israeli camp and trying to make amends with Iran and put an end, once and for all, to the senseless Sunni-Shiite mutual fear and anxiety.

Will MBS be the man to take the conciliatory initiative with Iran? Unlikely. If anything, he is upscaling his anti-Iran stance and promising it war. Given his close American and Israeli links and his strategic reliance on American military hardware, he cannot break away even if he tries, and he will most likely implode, but his implosion can potentially bring down the Al-Saud dynasty with him. However, with MBS we have learnt to expect the unexpected, and the next surprise; positive or negative, can be just around the corner.

THE FALL AND FALL OF HARIRI by Ghassan Kadi 5 November 2017

THE FALL AND FALL OF HARIRI
By Ghassan Kadi
5 November 2017
Politics in Lebanon is exceedingly complex. Ghassan gives a brief background on Hariri and offers some thoughts on the reasons behind Hariri’s sudden resignation. With events in the region proceeding at a dizzying pace, and especially the news of arrests in Saudi Arabia which happened after Ghassan submitted his piece, some of the thoughts in Ghassan’s article may merely represent a snapshot in time as the landscape keeps changing, but essentially the article discusses Saudi Arabia’s attempts to regain control over Lebanon.

http://thesaker.is/the-fall-and-the-fall-of-hariri/

The Fall and the Fall of Hariri

29243 ViewsNovember 05, 2017 52 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

The sudden resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri raises a number of questions.

To fast track the main relevant events of the last decade or so, Hariri was Saudi Arabia’s favourite kid on the Lebanese block. After all, his father was a close friend and a business partner of Prince Fahed, who later on became King Fahed. And because he harbours similar anti-Shiite passions like his Saudi allies, Hariri and Saudi Arabia became natural partners in Lebanese anti-Hezbollah and anti-Syria politics and partners in the ”War on Syria” at all levels; including facilitating the transit of fighters and munitions from Lebanon into Syria.

The loss of the gamble in Syria and the change of guards in the Saudi hierarchy and the elevation of King Salman and his son Mohamed (MBS) to power, Hariri found himself demoted. Not only his family did not have strong ties with the new guards, but also MBS seemed to loath him. To add insult to injury, with the down turn of the Saudi economy, Hariri’s main Saudi company (Oger) was under severe financial stress, and instead of being given the Saudi government subsidy and huge railway contract it was promised, it received zilch and it was forced into bankruptcy under the deliberate watchful eye of MBS.

Hariri was punished by MBS for his failures in Lebanon; or rather for the success of Hezbollah. And even within the fragmented Lebanon, the once star and head of the so-called the 14th of March alliance that included a huge range of Lebanese power brokers including Christian Maronite and Druze leaders, with the failure of the Syrian venture that coalition was decimated and even its Sunni component was fractured as some Sunni leaders challenged the leadership and prowess of Hariri.

To that effect, even General Ashraf Rifi declared mutiny. Rifi is the former Lebanese Police Chief. He was the power broker in the northern city of Tripoli and Hariri’s right arm in arming and supporting the Sunni militia in the locality of Baba El-Tabbaneh against the little and besieged Alawite enclave of Jabal Mohsen. Rifi blamed Hariri for the failure of the military venture within Tripoli and accused Hariri of weakness and declared his mutiny and formed his own power base; supported and financed by Saudi Arabia.

As a Sunni himself, Rifi did not only challenge Hariri in Tripoli and won the municipal council’s elections by a strong margin, but has also challenged the overall political status of Hariri about who is more worthy of holding the title of the Lebanese Sunni leader. For this reason, Rifi tried hard to create an image of himself as that of the tough man who will deal with difficulty and win; unlike his political opponent Hariri, that he tried to portray as a wimp.

The Saudi-Hariri impasse was only strengthened by the Lebanese presidential elections. Saudi Arabia was adamant to block the election of Michel Aoun; a staunch supporter of Hezbollah, and as his election was becoming more imminent, in an act of dismay, Saudi Arabia recalled its ambassador in Lebanon. To add insult to injury, Hariri had to engage in a deal with the new president, his former foe, and be his prime minister. At that point, one could argue that the Saudi-Hariri relationship was totally and irrevocably severed.

As a matter of fact, when Hariri was given the appointment as prime minister almost exactly a year ago, he had already lost not only his strong and powerful Saudi allies, but also his fortune and many of his Lebanese power brokers and street support. He had very little clout left, and in a country like Lebanon, leaders with no clout don’t get a bite of the cherry let alone the whole pie. His appointment however was meant to be akin to national reconciliation.

This brief summary brings us back to the present.

So what made Hariri go to Riyadh and announce his resignation, as the prime minister of Lebanon, from the capital of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh?

Clearly, both Hariri and MBS are looking for a resurrection.

Ironically, a few hours after Hariri’s freak resignation, a Burkan H-2 Yemeni missile has reportedly hit Riyadh airport, and it seems that another one was intercepted around the outskirts of the capital. The fire that MBS started and stoked in Yemen is now capable of hitting his capital, and he has much at stake to fight for and he is desperate for all forms of Saudi resurrection; and this is why, among other things, he is pushing for reform.

But instead of MBS focusing only on his home front, ailing economy and finding a way to end the war on Yemen, he continues to enter into new and expensive ventures, and he seems determined to restore the destructive role of Saudi Arabia in Lebanon.

High on MBS’s agenda is to look for every possible way and opportunity to lash back at Iran and Hezbollah; the major allies of his Yemeni Houthi foes. He is being pragmatic, putting former differences between himself and Hariri aside, to re-establish the Saudi role in Lebanon and to re-instate its position as a major power broker in Lebanon.

On his part, Hariri would have loved to see the rapprochement happen a year ago or so, and before his Oger went belly up, a rapprochement that would have saved it, but nevertheless, Hariri will take pennies even though he would wish for nuggets. MBS has reduced him to the position of a beggar, and beggars cannot be choosers.

For someone who is already the prime minister of a country, what incentive does he need to be given to quit and what bigger fish does he have to fry by quitting the top job? These are questions that cannot be answered unless one knows how the unique politics of Lebanon work.

In Lebanon, a political leader does not have to be technically in power (ie in parliament or cabinet) to be effectively in power. Hariri seems more interested in restoring the grass-root support that he lost. That said, he originally bought this support base, yes with money and gifts, and as his fortune dwindled, so did his support base. Being a “wimp” as his Rifi rival refers to him, was not alone the reason for the slump of his popularity.

Speaking of Rifi again, it is possible, in fact highly likely, that a part of the new MBS-Hariri deal is that Saudi Arabia pulls the rug from underneath Rifi’s feet. After all, Saudi Arabia may not see in Rifi the rightful Lebanese partner. He is to some degree an independent thinker, not just a follower of orders, and he is in his mid-sixties. He will soon run out of momentum. The much younger Hariri puppet has perhaps resurrected his position with the Saudi royals in the hope of restoring his street support in Lebanon. As for his lost wealth, we will not know what the details of the new deal are, but money will be a huge lubricant.

Whatever the details of the newly-founded Saudi-Hariri alliance are, they do not have much chance of success. The battle was lost in Syria, and for Hariri to be able to pick up the pieces and reverse the situation from within Lebanon, he does not have much chance of success; especially that Hezbollah now is stronger than ever, both militarily and politically. Only an Israeli military gamble in Lebanon can potentially change the balance in favour of Hariri and Saudi Arabia. Having said that, any such gamble will most likely backfire, just like previous gambles. If Israel and Hezbollah have another showdown, and this is probably a question of when not if, the timing and location may not be of Israel’s choosing.

MBS and Hariri are more likely to achieve nothing at all with their new alliance. Apart from getting media coverage and analysis reports like this one, the most they can affectively achieve is more street riots and acts of sabotage. This time, the Lebanese security forces and Hezbollah will be on full alert and preparedness to deal with them, after all, with the “War on Syria” coming to its end and the Syrian-Lebanese borders secured already, Lebanon and Hezbollah do not need to watch their back.

https://tonyseed.wordpress.com/2017/11/10/lebanon-the-fall-and-the-fall-of-hariri/

SOROS, NATO AND THE ALBANIAN GANGS By Intibah Kadi 30 October 2017

SOROS, NATO AND THE ALBANIAN GANGS
Intibah Kadi
30 October 2017

Apparently Soros' plans for Europe involve Albanian gangs working as sleeper cells for NATO and Soros. Just in Greece alone there are big plans to destroy her inside out with Albanian gangs and infiltration of extremists. Soros and various other cult like movements including that of Gulen, also Grey Wolves, are involved with the CIA and NATO, both having countless shop front NGO's that run in many cases mutual projects and interests; that is - controlling world's energy sources, power by using NGOs. I will keep researching about these Albanian gangs and agitators for hire. https://www.globalresearch.ca/operation-gladio-cia-network-of-stay-behind-secret-armies/9556

It is mind blowing and mind boggling trying to understand how Soros benefits from the plans that he evidently is linked to or actually driving. We've had startling news of a former NATO soldier (Albanian-Kosovan, German national) spending months this year in Syria, having free reign over the whole country, spinning stories about himself that absolutely don't stack up with his history or statements and him hanging out with the people we've been warning about. He is now a charity funds raiser inside Syria. Well at least he raises money unlike the other operatives who instead endlessly receive Syrian hospitality, with the attitude that they ought to be rewarded by Syrians. 

This is an ex NATO soldier who had no interest in politics other than his love for his country Kosova and Albania but has German citizenship. He was visitor to Syria who has spent several months this year in Syria with Christian Zionist Kortkamp and all associated with her. What a mix! What a convergence of interesting agendas!

On Syrian national television he casually drops a bombshell to the nation under attack of NATO for all these years! He tells us he was a NATO soldier.
https://www.facebook.com/100008545685348/videos/1735776313383875/?hc_location=ufi

How old is this guy?
How long ago could he have been a NATO soldier and what is his current status?
To be trained as a helicopter pilot in the military would take how many years?

QUESTIONS:
*When was this man serving as a "NATO soldier"? He looks young so it can't have been too long ago.

*What was his role? He is a pilot of helicopters and planes. Did he get that training from NATO or from where? That takes many years and the guy looks fairly young. All we see in the last decade are photos of him constantly travelling and living the high life.

*As he was travelling extensively in Israel in 2011 and then back again in 2013 and staying over till 2014, what are his views about Israel? He wouldn't have gone there on a solidarity trip to Palestine as he sports the Israeli flag in his blogs including saying he makes a "fresh start" there and that Israel is "calling" him.

*He proudly sports the Kosovo flag, even inside Serbia. What are his true feelings about Kosovo. Everything indicates him to be a Kosovo patriot, NATO style.

*How does this guy's ties with NATO, Israel and Kosovo add up with his sudden interest in politics and humanitarianism after evidence shows a life time of adventure, thrill seeking, wealth and a hollow life? How did he suddenly transform into a totally different type of person? Syria is not the first or only country he visited in a state of war, troubles or recent war.

*How has this former NATO soldier managed to gain permission to spend most of 2017 and ongoing in Syria and access sensitive Syrian areas?

*He is always around questionable Western characters and in those sensitive areas with his big cameras and tripods.

*How much is he costing the Syrian government to observe him?

*He seems to be close to another Westerner, a British man who has no past, but says he advises the Syrian Foreign Minister.

*How did a former NATO soldier get to go on Syrian national television and link up with Arabic RT. What keys has he been handed, how and why?

*As a person who in the Syrian scene is presenting himself as a peace activist, why are his photos over the years full of him holding big guns?

*Looking through Morina's many photo collections, we see a life of privilege, adventure, a man dressed like a prince, always connecting with other privileged looking people around the globe, enjoying shooting at the Royal Thai Military Base, in Las Vegas, anywhere that has guns. He gets into planes and helicopters and flies around, having a quick stop at Monte Carlo and wherever else. He zig-zags around the world, not being mindful of costs and visiting places nearby and then moving on to the next region. Visits to remote Pacific Island nations are incredibly expensive, but he does them all.  On his "Nomad Mania" profile https://nomadmania.com/profile/9655 he shows his count of countries visited but doesn't always show his repeat visits such as Israel. So where is his NATO background story, when did he fit that into his life of adventure and privilege?

*He appears to have hopped onto the back of another charity established by an ex-pat Syrian but presents to the world that he has a charity and seeks donations. He calls it "Morinas Foundation", but searches don't show anything about it. He apparently collects all the donations and stores them in his apartment.

*Indeed kindness, generosity and sincerity towards Syria should be lauded. But, this is a country that has been under attack since the establishment of the Zionist state of Israel in 1948 and for decades Syria has been put under the harshest of sanctions from at least the early 1970's. It is only normal to ask such questions when a man casually drops on Syrian national television that he is a former NATO soldier and has never shown a sign of political or humanitarian interests. And, it is only normal to ask questions when he is deeply involved with a proven Christian Zionist operator (church planter) and others who have links with USAid funded projects in Nigeria, and in fact so many strange characters.

Like other rather "interesting" characters, he came in via Janice Kortkamp's group and has associated with Vanessa Beeley , Tim Anderson among others.
Photos
https://www.instagram.com/morinasworld/

With Janice Kortkamp (known in her church and the US as Jan Fearing_

With Vanessa Beeley

Working in with a registered charity. A charity where some of the attendees begged for money for themselves to attend a rampant Christian Zionist hustler outfit running a "conference" in Washington DC.

The self-professed former NATO Soldier (did he ever leave or is he high up?) lives an endless life of luxury.

MOHAMED BIN SALMAN'S DO OR DON'T DILEMMA By Ghassan Kadi 19 October 2017

MOHAMED BIN SALMAN'S DO OR DON'T DILEMMA

By Ghassan Kadi

19 October 2017

A lot is happening in Saudi Arabia at the moment, actually on and behind the scenes.  Mohamed Bin Salman seems to be desperate to give Al Saud a makeover and a new momentum.

This article expresses Ghassan Kadi’s views on that subject.

http://thesaker.is/mohamed-bin-salmans-do-or-dont-dilemma/

Mohamed Bin Salman’s Do or Don’t Dilemma

16990 ViewsOctober 19, 2017 14 Comments

by Ghassan Kadi

Much has been said about the Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman (aka MBS), and most of it, has been in the form of criticism from different analysts and individuals including some members of the Saudi royal family itself. The relatively few voices of support come only from sources close and loyal to him. The famous Saudi blogger who calls himself “Moujtahid” has been taunting the Saudi royals for a long time, blogging and tweeting about in-house matters and exposing its dirty linen. No one seems to be certain who Moujtahid is, let alone where he lives, but given the information he is privy to, he is believed to be one of the many disgruntled members of the royal family.

Moujtahid has made many predictions, including predictions about the transfer of power within Saudi Arabia and away from the old guards. His predictions were invariably spot on. He was also instrumental in relaying to the outside world the state of unease and unrest within the royal family seeing the rise of Salman and his previously little known “juvenile” son to power. He even reported that some royals are actually under house arrest and others in jail; much of which cannot be verified from behind the very thick Saudi iron shroud.

Others have looked at MBS’s and his attempts of reform very cynically, and those who know Saudi Arabia well cannot be blamed, because the very basic backbone of the kingdom and the guarantee of the longevity of the House of Saud is founded on preventing and opposing any form of reform, and the concept of reform, in any manner, shape or form, is in itself, a guaranteed death warrant for the royals.

This makes one ask three pertinent questions: 1) why would MBS be seeking reform? 2) what form of reform is he seeking? and 3) why?

To implement reform or otherwise is a domestic matter, and we shall go back to this later on. But first, let us take a look outside the Kingdom of Sand and Holy Shrine.

Regionally, the Saudi influence has reached its peak in 2013 when Prince Bandar believed that his plot to topple President Bashar Assad was bearing fruit. Cocky and arrogant Bandar went as far as having enough audacity to meet with President Putin in Moscow and offer him both a threat and a bribe. He asked Putin to join his plot in Syria with a financial bribe that comes with it, and a threat of activating Jihadi sleeper cells in Chechnya if he refuses. When Putin showed him the door, Bandar thought that the second line of attack was to lower the price of crude and put the squeeze on Moscow.

Little did Bandar know back then that his first gamble with Syria was going to fail and that his second and bigger gamble with Russia was going to turn and bite him and put the Saudi economy in deficit and turmoil.

The failure of Bandar led to his demise, and the takeover of MBS meant that he needed a diversion and a clean sweep victory, and this was how Yemen came into the scene. But the so-called “Operation Storm of Resolve” was meant to be a swift and easy operation, and most ironically, its name indicated this, but in reality, it turned into a huge Saudi quagmire. Then came the on-going Qatar crisis, and MBS was one of its main architects. As he could no longer hide the flow of Arab funds to terrorist organizations in Syria, the blame, all the blame, was put on the former partner in crime Qatar.

With failures in Syria, Yemen and Qatar, MBS realized that his kingdom is in deep trouble. To make his woes more woeful, reversing the decision to lower crude prices initiated by Bandar was taken out Saudi hands when his American allies made their push to sell their shale oil products. The Saudi decision became irreversible and back fired in the worst manner possible. Oil revenues were reduced to less than half, and to add insult to injury, the defense budget had to increase dramatically not only in the face of the Yemen war, but also in the face of the rising regional power of Iran.

MBS had to take drastic economic decisions and for the first time, austerity measures were put in place that included higher taxes, lower financial aids and gifts, and even lower salaries/stipends for members of the royal family.

MBS has also initiated his 2030 vision for the kingdom that included an ambition to build an economy that is less reliant on oil and oil products.

Traditionally, before the economic downturn, the royal family had an unwritten accord with tribal leaders based on pledging unwavering loyalty to the crown. But that loyalty came with a cost, a financial cost, or in other words, money for doing nothing other than pledging loyalty. We are not talking here about free schools and hospitals only, we are talking about huge interest free government loans (invariably later on forgiven), and gifts totaling billions of dollars given regularly to tribal leaders and certain key citizens in lieu of guaranteeing their continued loyalty to the crown.

So when those funds were reduced and others came to a halt, eyebrows were raised and the smell of dissent reeked all over. And this is exactly what has been happening in the Kingdom of Sand of once bottomless coffers.

This is not to forget that the alleged anti-ISIS stance of the Saudi Government has angered many Saudi hardliners. The Saudi Government and its clerics found themselves at odds in between what they teach and what they practice. After all, this is exactly what happened when Bin Laden fell out of favour, or should we say it the other way around; when the royal family fell out of Bin Laden’s favour because of their open and overt rapprochement and military partnership with “infidel” America against Iraq on “holy” Saudi soil

On the regional and international scenes, Saudi Arabia was left with little more than desperately trying to bolster its military by signing the historically biggest ever armament purchase deal with Trump; a deal that is touted to cost Saudi Arabia one third of its savings reserve; a deal that also pleases and appeases Trump’s thirst for funds in his attempts to “make America great again”.

But that was not enough, because Saudi Arabia had to make amends with Russia, not only because they lost in Syria and Russia won, but also because contracts and money is their way to say sorry. Saudis understand only the language of money, and in their way of apologizing and snuggling up to Russia, they don’t mind buying some state-of-the-art defense capabilities (S-400) that are far superior than anything that their American partners can supply them with. To this effect, one wonders if the Saudis feel they need the S-400 system in fear of Iran or the fast-developing Yemeni missile capability. With a five year delivery plan, it is highly likely that Yemeni missiles will be able to reach deep into Saudi Arabia long before the missiles are delivered. After all, they have already reached Yanbu’, north of Mecca. Incidentally, Yanbu’ is equidistant to Riyadh, and its choice as a target last month was a clear Yemeni message to their Saudi foes that the capital Riyadh is now within the reach of Yemeni fire power.

To put all of the above into context, MBS knows that Saudi Arabia is in deep trouble. He knows that it needs a significant change in direction if it were to survive. He knows he literally can no longer afford to buy loyalty. He has done the best he could internationally with both America and Russia. He cannot do much against Iran. He concedes that he lost the war in Syria. He still hopes to win his war on Yemen. With all said, he most importantly realizes that the continuity of the throne is at risk and he must conjure up new ways to be granted a new form of domestic loyalty.

It was the former King Abdullah who gave Saudi women the right to vote in municipal elections back in 2011. But MBS’s gamble is taking the rights of women in a much bigger step and perhaps towards the right of elections at all levels. Furthermore, he is making a highly controversial decision to allow women to drive, a decision that was deemed unfathomable by virtually everyone who knows Saudi Arabia.

Most importantly perhaps, what doesn’t seem to be reported in the West is that MBS is putting the status “Matawia” (Shariah Police) on notice.

These men are actually Wahhabism in action and are highly representative of the tyranny of Al-Saud. Those often frail-looking men, and sometimes frail and old, roam the streets armed with canes. But those canes are mightier than tank guns. Those men literally have a license to beat anyone, man woman or child, on the spot, irrespective of their stature and position, if and when they don’t abide by strict Wahhabi rules of conduct. For decades, the “Matawia” reigned with an iron fist and caned any woman who was, according to their regulations and norms, improperly dressed, any man walking down the streets during prayer time, and any shop owner who did not close his shop door to go to prayer. They did not need search warrants or court decisions. They simply caned and lashed anyone they did not like and did not have to provide any justification because they were not answerable to anyone.

They were untouchable, and any confrontation with them was tantamount to playing with fire. The power they had was second to none.

According to a report on “Al-Mayadeen”, (http://m.almayadeen.net/files/830931/نهاية-حكم–المطاوعة—-الغضب-قد-ينفجر) their government-sanctioned reign of street terror is coming to an end. For better or for worse, to put this decision in a contextual perspective, we can put it on par with the US “prohibition” laws, Gorbachev’s infamous Perestroika, and the erection and destruction of the Berlin wall. It is a huge decision, and it will change the face of Saudi Arabia forever. It can mean, among other things, that soon women will be able not only to drive cars in Saudi Arabia, but to also walk the streets alone and to uncover their heads; because there will not be anyone there to stop them.

Once again, this is yet another huge reform gamble that MBS is making, a gamble that is bound to make him lose quite a bit of popularity among the traditional regimented hard-line Saudis and supporters, generate more disgruntled royals, but he knows that this level of support is waning either way, it is no longer financially affordable, and he is now targeting a new grass-root support and he hopes that this gamble will not fail.

Whether or not MBS will be able to implement the changes that will modernize Saudi Arabia remains to be seen, but he is definitely racing against time, watching his allies and enemies, and watching every step he takes within the perimeters of his own palaces. It is even said that MBS is spending most of his time either in hiding, or on board his yacht in the Red Sea. If true, this definitely is not an indication that he is a recluse, but rather a reflection of his concerns for his safety.

Going back to the original three questions this article asked. In response to the first question one can argue that MBS is in an unenviable situation because he is damned to seek reform and damned not to.

In the regard to the second question, MBS knows that the time to buy loyalty has gone and he is trying to improve the international image of Saudi Arabia, all the while meeting the rising expectations of Saudi youth and women. He is risking more dissent, but according to his gamble, the support he is banking on will outweigh the dissent. He is taking a huge gamble here, but he is left with one and perhaps only hope left, and that is to implement reform and capitalize on the popularity it brings, or stick to the existing rules and norms and brace for an impending avalanche.

A quick summary of the answer to the third question is that the risk of implementing reform has now been exceeded by the risk of the iron fist control and maintaining the status quo.

الجزيرة الحقيرة

الجزيرة الحقيرة

غسان قاضي

٢٢ أيار ٢٠١١

إن قطر تتصرف و كأنه لديها مناعة ضد الأحداث الجارية في العالم العربي و كأن أحداثاً من هذا النوع لن تطالها أبداً. وفي عنجهيتها، لم تتردد بالمشاركة في الحرب في ليبيا مشاركة بذلك حلف الأطلسي الناتو ضد دولة عربية. 

ولَم تكن قطر ليوم واحد نبراساً للنور، وهي بعيدة عن الديموقراطية الحديثة بعد السعودية لها، و أمير قطر متعدد الزوجات و له زوجة مفضلة يتباهى بها، و تحكم آل ثاني السلطوي لا يقل انفرادية عن حكم القذافي الذي يحاربون. 

و قبل ذلك ببعض سنين، فقد جعلت قطر من أرضها مرتعاً للأميركان و مقر قاعدة هجومهم على العراق. 

و قناة الجزيرة التي يملكها أمير قطر لا تفتأ تنشر الأكاذيب بشأن أحداث سوريا بغية نشر الفوضى و صَب الزيت على نار الفتنة المذهبية، و هذا موقف أرعن و قصير النظر، فأية فتنة سنية علوية في سوريا لا قدر الله، ستكون لها أصداءً تنعكس في البحرين جارة قطر. 

على أي حال، فإن قواعد اللعبة ستتغير في القريب العاجل في دار أمير قطر و جيرانه آلِ سعود، فالتغيير الذي حصل في مصر و سيحصل قريباً في ليبيا، لا بد أن يطال الأنظمة الفاسدة في قطر والبحرين و السعودية و الإمارات، و ليس من المستبعد مطلقاً أي يأتي هذا التغيير أسرع بكثير مما يظنه أمير قطر.