Sunday, April 17, 2016

YOU AIN'T SEEN NOTHING YET By Ghassan Kadi 1 July 2014

By Ghassan Kadi
1 July 2014
When the war on Syria started over 3 years ago, many people who know the history and the people of the area, and I think I can humbly put myself in this group, made a point to "educate" others about the grave consequences of stirring up the hornet’s nest.
Many people indeed believed that there was an uprising in Syria and a call for reform. There was some of this initially, and I for one, have always acknowledged this. However, I and many others warned people of the grave consequences and how far and wide this volcano can erupt.
Some people understood and heeded the warnings straight away, others took time, and others like Mary Rizzo never did and continue to support this so-called revolution in Syria.
I don’t have a crystal ball, but with all what is now obviously seen in Iraq, let me say it one more time to the remaining cynics…you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Many in the West probably do not know that in the Sunni Muslim World, many are flagging the events in Iraq as a war of liberation and playing down the role of ISIS. To some extent, this is probably true because ISIS is following the same Syria strategy in Iraq. There is quite a bit of anger amongst Iraqi Sunnis against Maliki, and ISIS is using this dissent in order to serve its own agenda; just like it did in Syria. It will initially sponsor the public anger and use it to gain popularity and support, and then once this has been achieved, ISIS will turn against the people who supported it.
The Sunni/Shiite divide is a huge dormant demon that many activists, especially some well-intentioned Western activists, have absolutely no idea at all about .
But again, you ain’t seen nothing yet. This can get a lot worse, especially that the conflict has now reached the soil of Iraq.
Just look at the developing scenarios:
1. Jordan is being threatened, and Israel made subtle comments that it will help Jordan.
2. The Kurds have expanded their territory and have come closer than ever to creating their own independent state.
3. Israel blesses the formation of Kurdish state and will support it and help it see the light.
4. Turkey, Israel’s ally, is headstrong against the establishment of a Kurdish state.
5. As ISIS keeps pushing south in Iraq, it will eventually come in contact with the Shiite region. Sectarian clashes will ensue, and if the Shiites need help, Iran will lend a hand.
6. Whether or not ISIS manages to claim any victory in Southern Iraq, as it has declared the restoration of Islamic Khilafet, it will soon be seeking to control Mecca. It will have to find a corridor into Mecca from Western Iraq/Eastern Jordan.
7. ISIS will also make a push into the West of Arabia, even if it doesn't win over Southern Iraq. It will want to capture the oil fields and topple the Gulf Royals. This is already on ISIS's declared agenda.
8. ISIS will clash with the Saudis, the very people who created it, and Iran may also get dragged into a war with the Saudis in Southern Iraq. This may result in the Saudis fighting Iran on one front and ISIS on another.
9. In Lebanon, the Sunni-Shiite divide will find for itself a huge number of supporters.
Do we need to contemplate more scenarios?
Who can win this at the end? Only governments with stable and national-secular policies and strong armies will be able to stand against the proliferation of such a war. Syria will be tipped to spearhead this resistance. If Maliki manages to hold on to power, he will join Syria and possibly even seek the logistic support of Iran. To foresee that even the Saudis will ask for the help of the Syrian army would not be unrealistic. This will be the "Security Arc" that Sharmine Narwanihas predicted a few months ago and long before the recent developments in Iraq.
If this goes out of hand and ISIS faces no substantial opposition, millions of Sunnis and Shiites will be killed, mostly civilians. Neither side will win, they will eventually stop fighting after realizing that there will be no winners. The Middle East will be left with no Christians. They will be either killed or forced to flee, including the Lebanese Maronites, some of whom were and continue to support the rebels in Syria.
Without effective resistance, ISIS will control the Fertilie Crescent and Arabia, and Israel will find itself surrounded by a fundamentalist monster that it created, and it will all happen because Bush and Blair wanted to topple Saddam and Bandar spearheaded the American Israeli plan to topple Assad.

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