Tuesday, September 3, 2013

The New "New World Order" By Ghassan Kadi 4 Feb 2012

The New "New World Order"
By Ghassan Kadi
4 Feb 2012

 Fifty years ago this week, and on the new year’s eve of 1962, the Syrian Socialist National Party (SSNP) made a failed coup d’etat in Lebanon and most of its members were imprisoned. But even if that coup succeeded, it was certain to face global opposition and intervention later on. It was doomed to fail.

Nasser in Egypt and the Baath Party in Syria were better strategists than the SSNP. They had the backing of the USSR and the West had to sit back and watch. And even though Egypt was attacked by Britain, France and Israel in 1956, rescue came from the most unlikely friend, the USA, because red lines were drawn and the sovereignty of Egypt was not to be questioned. And though Nasser emerged as the hero that he was, he soon realized that he needed to bolster his ties with the USSR as his super-power support base.

Baathist Syria learned this lesson from as early as 1963, but after the demise of the USSR, Syria was left alone in the wilderness. The weak Yetlzin administration did not know whether or not to stay on the side of the old friends of the USSR and/or to get rid of them in order to appease the West.

The game of nations is such that smaller nations cannot secure their sovereignty without the blessing of a super power. But the so-called New World Order that George Bush Sr. often bragged about was actually tantamount to American hegemony. It was during this period of international wilderness that the USA got away with attacking Iraq in 1991 and again in 2003, not forgetting Afghanistan.

Bullies however normally refuse to see that they have lost their stature when they lose it. America and Israel are no exception. The recent “triumph” of NATO in Libya is perhaps adding to the arrogance of the bully. The United States is still riding on its early 1990’s status; a time when it was an unopposed super power both militarily and economically.

Israel is also still riding on its victory in 1967. Despite is losses to Hezbollah and Hamas, at a deep level, the Israelis are still convinced that they have an invincible army. Perhaps after the next showdown they will well and truly start believing otherwise.

The world however is on the verge of a new “New World Order”. It is still ill-defined at this stage, but what is clear about it is that the USA is not going to have the hegemony it had for nearly a quarter of a century. This is a global fact. It seems that the free lance that NATO had over Libya is going to be the last chapter in the history of the New Wolrd Order of the 1990’s.

Global facts have regional reverberations all over the world; the loudest of which is the one that is now heard in the UN corridors about Syria. The red lines that China and Russia have put against NATO interventions against Syria are not only a breath of relief for Syria, but they are loud and clear messages to the USA that game is over. China and Russia are telling the ailing and bankrupt giant that it can no longer do what it pleases when it pleases, anywhere in the world; beginning with Syria.

To compound the situation even further, there are other regional issues at play. With Erdogan having one foot inside the door of the West and another foot inside the door of his dream Turkish Islamic empire, the role of Turkey will not be one that is stable until Turkey decides what it wants. Nonetheless, the emergence of Turkey is adding another wild card which may or may not eventually play into the American dream.

What is clear however is that Iran has made up its mind, and has demonstrated that it will, if pushed, close the Strait of Hormuz.

Fortunately for Syria, the emergence of the new “New World Order” is placing America between a rock and a hard place. Not only it has been given those vehement messages from China and Russia, but it cannot go into a war that it cannot afford to have, and its allies cannot be counted on as they have their own financial woes to contend with.

The real question to ask is not to what extent will Russia and China defend Syria. The Syrian affair is not just about what is happening inside Syria and who is behind it. The real question to ask is to what extent will Russia and China continue to push for their place in the new “New World Order”.

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