Tuesday, September 3, 2013

THE NO OPTIONS OPTION OF THE ANTI-SYRIAN COALITION By Ghassan Kadi 5 Feb 2012

THE NO OPTIONS OPTION OF THE ANTI-SYRIAN COALITION
By Ghassan Kadi
5 February 2012

As Mr. Obama, the Nobel Prize winner for Peace is trying to shred Syria to pieces under a UN cover, the new New World Order does not serve him with only ONE VETO, but TWO.

This development... in the UNSC is of great significance on many levels. The first Veto was “necessary” to stop the resolution demanding intervention in Syria. The second Veto was a loud and clear message to the NATO alliance that it no longer controls the world.

As the last Arab bastion standing, the battle for Syria’s independence is not over. But the US and its henchmen have to redraw the lines of attack and conjure up new strategies. What options do they still have?

The USA is desperately trying to export the Arab Spring into Russia, but so far, to no avail. But even if Putin is not re-elected and even if Russia is destabilized, which will have to be a long shot for US policy maker to achieve, the US has absolutely no control over China. And if anything, any more covert US intervention in Russia is going to lead to more Anti-American Chinese resilience.

Another option for the NATO camp is to form a new coalition of the willing and replicate the Iraqi invasion of 2003 without UN approval.

However, Syria is not Iraq. When the US attacked Iraq in 2003, Saddam had only a handful of supporters who were prepared to die defending him. Baghdad fell in a few days and Bush made his infamous “mission accomplished” speech on the US Navy Ship. But even the weak, fragmented, starved, diseased, impoverished and anti-Saddam Iraq turned out to be a big bog for US troops and the rest is history.

The West does not believe and/or refuses to believe that at least 80% (and this is a very conservative figure) of Syrians are with Assad in this stand. This includes those who are very staunch critics of the government, those who are very strong advocates of reform, those who are totally against the one-party rule, those who want to implement democratic reforms, those who are strong fighters of corruption, etc….. They now stand behind Assad because they are fighting for Syria, its independence and its integrity.

An invasion of Syria therefore will not be a walk in the park. But if NATO is silly enough to take this step, it will first have to find a diplomatic cover that enables it to deal with or ignore the presence of Russian Navy ships in Tartous. But this will be NATO’s smallest concern. Perhaps the USA will first stronger aim at de-stabilizing Russia first, before they attack Syria, not that it can achieve this.

But even if the strong unlikelihood of America’s ability to destabilize Russia comes to fruition, and even if China lifts its protectiveness of Syria, and these two ifs are very highly unlikely, and then NATO decides to strike without a UN cover, Syria will continue to have three very strong aces up its sleeve; its people, Iran, and Hezbollah.

The majority of Syrians are intelligent patriotic people who know that this is the fight for their nation’s freedom. They know that they are surrounded by enemies. In the sea and the in skies, lurk the NATO danger. In the north, there is the former colonialist Turkey that still occupies a part of Syria and a nation that is a NATO member and fully entrenched with the West. To its south, is Jordan, a state with a king who is a western puppet and a friend of Israel. To its east, there is Iraq, under totally US hegemony. To its south-west is its arch-enemy; Israel.

Syria’s only bordering friend is Lebanon; at least some of Lebanon.

In as much as Syrian patriots know that this is their fight for freedom, so do the Lebanese patriots. Members of the Anti-US coalition in Lebanon will fight to the death as much as their Syrian brothers.

Hezbollah knows for certain that should Syria fall, God forbid, its support base will be discontinued. Hezbollah has paid for its stature of total independence and for the freedom of Lebanon with very precious blood, and Hezbollah will fight to the death. With it, its political and strategic friends will stand hand by hand, especially the Syrian Social National Party (SSNP).

Hezbollah takes orders from no one and will not wait for any diplomatic resolutions. It is very highly likely that the first NATO missile to hit Syria will be responded to by a battery of rockets to hit Tel Aviv.

If America thinks that it can strike Syria without causing an avalanche of events that will resonate first and foremost in Israel, and in the most catastrophic manner possible then America would have to be very remote from reality.

This is not to forget the Iran factor. Iran can and probably will intervene, but even if it does not draw first blood, NATO will find it very difficult to attack Syria, then be drawn into Lebanon as Hezbollah draws itself in, and at the same time be able to avoid a confrontation with Iran. If anything, the hawks in the US policy making may see in this an “opportunity” to attack Iran and get it over and one with. After all, the USA has been threatening to strike Iran for some years now.

The involvement of Iran will add a totally new equation, needless to mention an oil crisis and the oil barrel reaching USD 200 if not more. Furthermore, Iran is a force to be reckoned with, and the war could turn into a long and very expensive protracted war that could very well be the last nail in the economic coffin of the US and Europe.

Israel will probably sit back and watch the US do its dirty work, but even if it does get involved, it will not add much to the already very powerful NATO alliance. The only other regional ally that NATO can count on is perhaps Turkey. But if this war reaches this level, the biggest losers within Syria will be the minorities, the same minorities that give Turkey its domestic concern and latent instability. If and when those minority groups in Turkey, such as Kurds, Alawis, etc… find their cousins being persecuted in Syria, instability will ensue in Turkey. The UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, even Saudi Arabia itself are not immune to those divisions. If/when the Shiite population of those countries see that they are going to be targeted, they will rise and the whole region will succumb into a sectarian bloodbath.

In other words, apart from taking a very ill-calculated and risky military gamble that is highly doomed to fail or at best spiral out of control, all that the West and the Shiekhs of Arabia can do against Syria and its government is more of the same of what it is doing today; ie send paid thugs into Syria and buy some more local traitors in the hope that in time, Assad will relent. In reality, if anything at all, this is bolstering support around Assad and sorting out who among Syrians truly love his/her country and who is prepared to sell his/her soul to the devil.

The anti-Syria coalition does not seem to have many options. In fact, it only has one option, an option that will perhaps once and for all sort the good citizens of Syrians from the sectarian fundamentalist thugs who can be bought and sold.

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